Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[intrepid27]

Question. Has there been any announcements regarding revenue sharing for the new members? Are they coming in with reduced shares for the first couple of years?

What made me think of that is I doubt if our media partners will set up and pay more during the 2-3 years of transition.

 

[cykadelic2]

Dodd doesn't seem to understand that OU and UT will be playing in the SEC in Fall 2025, not the Big 12.

We'll have at most, two seasons (not three) of 14 teams: 2023 and 2024.

The Big 12 will be back to 12 teams for the 2025 season (not 2026, as he indicates).

I will still be surprised if OuT is in the Big12 in 22-23.

Bowlsby needs to release a 2023 schedule with Texas playing at Houston ASAP because that will very likely never happen.

That will facilitate a R8 settlement with ESPN/SEC/OUT/Fox very quickly and in time for OUT to join the SEC in 2023 and get the wheels in motion for potential additional realignment for the R8.

 

[cykadelic2]

I think I agree with most of your points. Only thing is that Texas doesn't really need the SEC money but OU might. My personal thoughts if I ran OUT would be to save the coin and stay in the BIG12 untill the contract was out. Try to reestablish the program for OU and try to not be a dumpster fire for Texas. While the SEC is extremely top heavy the top 75% of teams in that conference would be really hard for them to beat. A couple years of getting your breaks beat off can severely damage a program. Knowing the push back against playoff expansion the move to the SEC looks even more idiotic.

OU definitely needs SEC money ASAP. The problem for them is they cannot afford to pay $80M in exit fees and, in addition, the exponentially higher GOR settlement fees with an exit prior to GOR expiration. ESPN, SEC and/or UT will need to help OU foot their share of those fees which Bowlsby is currently demanding as a one time lump sum payment and rightfully so.

 

[trajanJ]

OU definitely needs SEC money ASAP. The problem for them is they cannot afford to pay $80M in exit fees and, in addition, the exponentially higher GOR settlement fees with an exit prior to GOR expiration. ESPN, SEC and/or UT will need to help OU foot their share of those fees which Bowlsby is currently demanding as a one time lump sum payment and rightfully so.

No school can really afford to pay the kind of money OuT will owe outside of possibly UT & tOSU but even they would probably do anything possible to negotiate it. This was never supposed to have leaked out. OuT was working it and probably planned on announcing it much closer to the end of the Big 12 contract, but A&M leaked it. So now the schools are in a position where it will cost them crazy money to leave. My guess is there will be a settlement sometime that allows the teams to leave after next year.

 

[HFCS]

No school can really afford to pay the kind of money OuT will owe outside of possibly UT & tOSU but even they would probably do anything possible to negotiate it. This was never supposed to have leaked out. OuT was working it and probably planned on announcing it much closer to the end of the Big 12 contract, but A&M leaked it. So now the schools are in a position where it will cost them crazy money to leave. My guess is there will be a settlement sometime that allows the teams to leave after next year.

Why would B12 settle for a dime less? Is there something else the B12 can get from them?

Remember ESPN can’t offer us anything because they are trying to continue the joke that ESPN isn’t involved at all.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

OU definitely needs SEC money ASAP. The problem for them is they cannot afford to pay $80M in exit fees and, in addition, the exponentially higher GOR settlement fees with an exit prior to GOR expiration. ESPN, SEC and/or UT will need to help OU foot their share of those fees which Bowlsby is currently demanding as a one time lump sum payment and rightfully so.

This is kidna why I think they stay through the whole thing. ESPN isn't going to pay for an exit fee and I doubt Texas is going to forfeit over the longhorn network money out of the goodness of their heart.

 

[cykadelic2]

Why would B12 settle for a dime less? Is there something else the B12 can get from them?

Sure there is. In lieu of Exit & GOR settlement fees, ESPN/SEC/OUT pays for the transition of the R8 to other P4 conferences.

 

[WhoISthis]

No school can really afford to pay the kind of money OuT will owe outside of possibly UT & tOSU but even they would probably do anything possible to negotiate it. This was never supposed to have leaked out. OuT was working it and probably planned on announcing it much closer to the end of the Big 12 contract, but A&M leaked it. So now the schools are in a position where it will cost them crazy money to leave. My guess is there will be a settlement sometime that allows the teams to leave after next year.

Only if Fox cooperates.
If ESPN were the only rights holder like in the ACC they could move OuT, keep the Big 12 whole for a couple years, and likely still come out okay depending on additive value of OuT in SEC .

There’s still the exit fee of an estimated $160 million combined. OUT will have to pay that unless their benefactor ESPN/SEC are able to cause more movement that leads to dissolution. If not for the A&M leak, espn and the sec should have offered KU, and espn work on WVU to the ACC to cause that. Instead espn was greedy and tried to get the leftover 8 to go straight to the worse possible outcome- joining the AAC- which would have been the best outcome for espn

KU is in a P2-only position. WVU would likely jump to the ACC, but espn controls the long-term future of that conference. If it saved them GOR make whole maybe they open up the ACC deal to do that, but unless the ACC wants to redo the deal without increasing, the resulting increase on the ACC side offsets the gain of possible Big 12 dissolution, and long term it’s better for them to dissolute that conference, given all the deadweight (see brutal ACC title game ratings)

 

[trajanJ]

Why would B12 settle for a dime less? Is there something else the B12 can get from them?

Remember ESPN can’t offer us anything because they are trying to continue the joke that ESPN isn’t involved at all.

That's a good point. I just think these things seem to always settle but this might be the exception.

 

[HFCS]

Sure there is. In lieu of Exit & GOR settlement fees, ESPN/SEC/OUT pays for the transition of the R8 to other P4 conferences.

couldnt ESPN get sued easily? They’ve been arguing/lying they had nothing to do with it.

 

[AuH2O]

couldnt ESPN get sued easily? They’ve been arguing/lying they had nothing to do with it.

They absolutely could be. Keep in mind, you had OUT members in negotiations with ESPN on a deal likely after this was in the works. Of course that means they are not negotiating in good faith. You also have another conference partner (Fox) with Big 12 rights. Possibly the biggest one that is overlooked in all this is you have ESPN getting future SEC rights while working the OUT angle. So they have knowledge of a different value of the product than CBS or others may have had.

So ESPN is tangled in this in a variety of ways in which not only the remaining schools, but other competitors could've have been damaged. So the remaining schools could be aiming at ESPN, but rather than take them to the cleaners, it's possible they leverage it for a good deal.

No idea what, if anything the other networks can or will do, but to me it seems CBS and Fox may have some grounds to go after ESPN, but we'll see.

 

[cykadelic2]

couldnt ESPN get sued easily? They’ve been arguing/lying they had nothing to do with it.

If the R8 end up in other P4 conferences, they won't sue and they will forgo the vast majority or all of owed Exit and GOR settlement fees.

 

[20eyes]

They absolutely could be. Keep in mind, you had OUT members in negotiations with ESPN on a deal likely after this was in the works. Of course that means they are not negotiating in good faith. You also have another conference partner (Fox) with Big 12 rights. Possibly the biggest one that is overlooked in all this is you have ESPN getting future SEC rights while working the OUT angle. So they have knowledge of a different value of the product than CBS or others may have had.

So ESPN is tangled in this in a variety of ways in which not only the remaining schools, but other competitors could've have been damaged. So the remaining schools could be aiming at ESPN, but rather than take them to the cleaners, it's possible they leverage it for a good deal.

No idea what, if anything the other networks can or will do, but to me it seems CBS and Fox may have some grounds to go after ESPN, but we'll see.

Isn't it possible that this was in ESPN's long range nefarious plan to begin with? If CBS/Fox could demonstrate that a "consolation deal" would be offered by ESPN to the Big 12 to assuage the member programs of their imminent financial concerns, would it remove any desire for CBS/Fox to negotiate at all? Will the big 12 get a better deal from ESPN than what the Big 12 could get on the open market?...or will they be ready to "cut their loses" and take a deal that's "good enough"...?

 

[AuH2O]

Isn't it possible that this was in ESPN's long range nefarious plan to begin with? If CBS/Fox could demonstrate that a "consolation deal" would be offered by ESPN to the Big 12 to assuage the member programs of their imminent financial concerns, would it remove any desire for CBS/Fox to negotiate at all? Will the big 12 get a better deal from ESPN than what the Big 12 could get on the open market?...or will they be ready to "cut their loses" and take a deal that's "good enough"...?

I think this clearly was ESPN's plan, but that blows up and the leverage flips relatively to the Big 12. If they had been clear of meddling, they might be able to pitch an AAC/Big 12 merger of some sort, provide a "salvagable" dollar level. But since they are smack in the middle of dismantling the conference for their own gain, the schools have leverage.

It was a really stupid strategy to begin with. Most of the Big 12 schools are too valuable to be absorbed by the AAC. Thinking that would work shows how dumb ESPN is. And make no mistake, they are not smart or good at what they do. They have been going downhill and bleeding money for a long time.

The fact that the best of the AAC bolted, and there were others trying to get in shows what a boneheaded move this was by ESPN.

 

[surly]

Why would B12 settle for a dime less? Is there something else the B12 can get from them?

Remember ESPN can’t offer us anything because they are trying to continue the joke that ESPN isn’t involved at all.

Time value of money.

 

[Hoggins]

Sure there is. In lieu of Exit & GOR settlement fees, ESPN/SEC/OUT pays for the transition of the R8 to other P4 conferences.

Again, the other conferences and Fox have to be on board too.

We’re not going anywhere

 

[cykadelic2]

Again, the other conferences and Fox have to be on board too.

We’re not going anywhere

Sure they have to be on board but that doesn’t mean that it can be automatically dismissed as a result, especially as it relates to the P12. Also, the new ACC Commish recently mentioned potential additional P5 realignment as rationale to hold off on CFP expansion.

 

[Die4Cy]

I will still be surprised if OuT is in the Big12 in 22-23.

I am 100% certain they will be here for 22-23. But this really is the last go round. By summer of 23 they will be gone.

 

[Big_Sill]

I've always assumed OuT will be let out of the exit fees early, as ESPN finds a soft landing spot for the R8 by offering $'s for the new big 12 contract that are probably outside of market (essentially funding the OuT buyout over time plus a premium). As part of the R8 being "taken care of" by ESPN, the Big 12 will forgive any notion of previous contract breaches by ESPN or OuT.

Other networks however (FOX) could be a hurdle to this outcome I suppose.

 

[WhoISthis]

I think this clearly was ESPN's plan, but that blows up and the leverage flips relatively to the Big 12. If they had been clear of meddling, they might be able to pitch an AAC/Big 12 merger of some sort, provide a "salvagable" dollar level. But since they are smack in the middle of dismantling the conference for their own gain, the schools have leverage.

It was a really stupid strategy to begin with. Most of the Big 12 schools are too valuable to be absorbed by the AAC. Thinking that would work shows how dumb ESPN is. And make no mistake, they are not smart or good at what they do. They have been going downhill and bleeding money for a long time.

The fact that the best of the AAC bolted, and there were others trying to get in shows what a boneheaded move this was by ESPN.

Yep, ESPN got greedy, at best. A few people there should have lost their jobs it was such a **** up. Rather than try to get R8 to go with the worst possible outcome, had they instead attempted to move 2-3 schools to other P5s, like WVU to ACC and KU to ACC/SEC, the Big 12 (or AAC) in the chaos is much more likely to reach dissolution. Instead of consolidation and marginal cost improvements, espn botched it and ended up with an expanded P5, and the desired move now more costly

If the R8 presidents are wise, the prisoners dilemma discount to networks is over. Institutions will still look out for themselves, but they know sticking together is leverage, and the floor is a great chance to be the 3rd conference when the valuable brands in the ACC and P12 get tired over making half of what the BIG/SEC get and flee like OuT. The R8 have no reason to accept being a pod or satellite in ACC or P12 for marginally more than Big 12. Want to kill the Big 12? It’s going to cost espn more. $20 million/school in cash (OuT exit) plus a big bump from what’s owed on the balance of the Big 12 deal. ESPN may walk and say “take it or leave it” plus try to lowball the new B12 deal, but this year’s ratings should give the B12 confidence in playing that game. In fair comparisons, the R8 does well against P12 and ACC.

It’s kind of a catch 22 for ESPN, as if adding R8s help both the P12 or ACC make significantly more, there’s no need for the R8 to leave the Big 12 as that’s revealing the value of the R8 is equitable to P12 and ACC

Now, if BIG and SEC offer any R8, it’s probably over, but such offers aren’t likely without Alliance schools also moving imo.

And SEC/OuT likely aren’t in a huge rush until the CFP gets settled. The ACC and BIG holding that up buys time, but the TV deals will be done before CFP expansion.