Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[Doc]

I repeat, if Tech wins tonight we control our own destiny. In the last game between OU and WV, either WV wins and we get in over OU with one less conference loss or if OU wins we get in over WV because they are 0-2 in the three way tie.

What happens if Tech wins out and OU beats WVU to make it a 4-way tie at 7-2?

 

[Dr.bannedman]

What happens if Tech wins out and OU beats WVU to make it a 4-way tie at 7-2?

i believe we all swap wifes then

 

[KennyPratt42]

What happens if Tech wins out and OU beats WVU to make it a 4-way tie at 7-2?

OU is 2-1 ISU is 2-1 Tech is 1-2 WV is 1-2 in the tiebreaker so we are in.

 

[Doc]

OU is 2-1 ISU is 2-1 Tech is 1-2 WV is 1-2 in the tiebreaker so we are in.

Nice!

 

[cyfanatic13]

You guys make this way harder than it needs to be

 

[Doc]

i believe we all swap wifes then

Does Derek come with?

 

[Doc]

You guys make this way harder than it needs to be

Yeah, I know we’re going to lose to KSU and it’s not gonna matter, but it’s fun to think about.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

Yeah, I know we’re going to lose to KSU and it’s not gonna matter, but it’s fun to think about.

I'd rather lose by 30 to Texas than lose to K State again

 

[Dr.bannedman]

Does Derek come with?

you DONT want that

 

[CRcyclone6]

This **** is just ******* awesome isn't it....

 

[Dale]

After the results of the early Big 12 games today:

ISU's odds to get to the title game if OU wins: 35.1%
ISU's odds if Tech wins: 41.0%

(Probably a couple percentage points higher than those for Iowa State after Massey's revised ratings come out tomorrow morning.)

 

[harimad]

Yes, I know that a 3-loss team isn't making the playoff. Still, it's fun to see us moving up to the 14th slot in 538s CFP prediction page.

 

[StLouisClone]

Yes, I know that a 3-loss team isn't making the playoff. Still, it's fun to see us moving up to the 14th slot in 538s CFP prediction page.

I still wouldn't count us out. If Bama, Clemson and ND win out, it's very possible there will be no P5 teams with one loss. There will be a few 2 loss teams, but who do you take if they are all coming off of losses? Say OU and ISU both win their next 3 and move up to #5 and #9 in the CFP rankings, respectively. Then we win the Big 12 championship while #4 Georgia gets stomped by Alabama in the SEC championship, #6 Washington State loses the PAC 12 championship to Utah and #7 Ohio State loses the Big 10 championship to Northwestern. #8 LSU is idle. Who do you take in this scenario? ISU would be riding an 8 game win streak and own the nation's #1 SOS.

Still just a pipe dream at this point, but it's not impossible.

 

[Beyerball]

Besides the top 3 teams in this weeks CFP...every team would have to lose most of their games and ISU win out...that isnt happening...lol..but hey it’s fun to even know there is a probability.

CFP complete pipe dream this year...but man it would be awesome to play for the big 12 title and a shot at the Sugar bowl.

 

[KennyPratt42]

There are essentially 4 possible teams at this point. If you assume each wins their two remaining games against unranked teams, it comes down to 2 games.

Winner of OU @ WV is in

OU loses:
OU in if ISU beats Texas
Texas in if they beat ISU

WV loses:
WV in if Texas beats ISU
ISU in if they beat Texas

(There are 8 games that are being assumed and there obviously could be upsets, but at this point these seem like the most likely scenarios.)

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

This is the easiest post to understand:

We need to win out.
OU needs to beat WVU @WVU.

Simple as that.

 

[atlantacyclone]

No, UT beating WVU does not put us in that situation come Sunday morning. All that's needed to disprove that is a single counterexample (and there are many), such as what I gave above. The scenarios you mention don't account for a possible 3-way ISU/OU/UT tie, which can still go against ISU. Here's one exact W/L scenario that puts ISU out with a UT over WVU win, and leads to the standings I gave above:
Week 10 winners: ISU, UT, TTU, OSU, KSU
Week 11: TCU, UT, OU, KSU, ISU
Week 12: WVU, OU TCU, KSU, ISU
Week 13: UT, OU, TCU, BAY, ISU
That gives a 3-way tie where TCU gives us the boot as described above. Is that specific scenario probable? No, but it is sufficient to show that ISU doesn't control its destiny with just a UT win. Similar scenarios exist for all such UT win combos this weekend.

Could WVU winning be bad? Certainly, as you suggest it could lead us to a tie for 2nd with OU at the end if OU doesn't lose this week. BUT, as I mentioned, if ISU wins, WVU wins, OU loses and (margin of victory in TTU/OU or TCU loss) happen, then there is NO such scenario come Sunday morning in which ISU doesn't control its destiny. (I'm not necessarily advocating this happening; I'm just saying it's the only way ISU can possibly control its destiny on Sunday morning - there are counterexamples for every other scenario.)

TTU winning over OU (or winning out) presents no issues for a 7-win ISU, and is a good thing in the scenario I mention.

If we win out the only teams that matter are WVU and OU. Everyone else would have at least 3 losses. It doesn't matter what else happens if OU beats WVU. We are in. In my opinion WVU helped us today.

 

[xr4ticlone]

I think the last 3 games are all very winnable. UT isn't that great to be honest. Their D is crap & their O is good...but our D is IMHO more than capable of holding them in check.

BU & KSU are both beatable...just have to be focused.

I think OU is playing well enough to win out...and I think we are as well.

Crazy to imagine ISU FB in a Championship game...much less one where I think we'd have a good shot at beating OU.

If that happens...Jesus comes back...it's all over.

 

[isuclone89]

Just beat Baylor and go from there

 

[keepngoal]

Just beat Baylor and go from there

Go where? To this thread or just beat TX?

Come on, running sceneries is fun and it’s what fans do.