Arizona State Matchup

[ScottyP]

And if you throw Neal in from KU at #15 it's 6 of the top 15.... and Kiner in from Cincy at #21 it's 7 of the top 25. Let's just say we have faced a lot of solid running backs this year.

I thought the Big 12 was a pass-heavy, air raid league?

 

[BCClone]

Anyone else think it's odd that the line shifted from ISU -1 to ISU +2 even with the news that their top WR is out? And 63% of the bets are currently on ASU? Something feels fishy about that and is making me nervous.

Its still being bet as a basic toss up game. There are a load of people who post on here that say they hedge bet. They bet against ISU so they feel they will win no matter what then.

 

[Lincoln_Cyclone]

As sad as it is, I completely agree. I won't plan on attending a non playoff or B12 Championship game anytime soon. It was pretty clear to me that the Bowl game in Memphis was nothing more than a season finale scrimmage in the eyes of the coaching staff. I'm not saying we didn't try to win the game when we were on the field, but it was clear that we did not gameplan at all.

I think part of that too was that the staff and WeWill were working overtime on keeping the team together. There were a lot of people coming to our stars with moneybags to get them to jump. The time between end of season and bowl was full of nothing but distractions, focus was to maintain a team rather than win a bowl game.
Take it for what it is worth and right/wrong.

 

[Cyclonsin]

I think part of that too was that the staff and WeWill were working overtime on keeping the team together. There were a lot of people coming to our stars with moneybags to get them to jump. The time between end of season and bowl was full of nothing but distractions, focus was to maintain a team rather than win a bowl game.
Take it for what it is worth and right/wrong.

Correct, but that doesn't bode well for future bowl games, so the point still stands. Bowls are dead.

 

[Lincoln_Cyclone]

This is concerning…

 

[Daserop]

This is concerning…

I like how they don't define any of these stats.

 

[VeloClone]

Also the crew that caused the Utah Athletic Director to go off this year when they lost late vs. BYU.

That was the right call...

 

[bosco]

This is concerning…

The comment about Brahmer being out coinciding with the stats could be an explanation.

 

[Lincoln_Cyclone]

The comment about Brahmer being out coinciding with the stats could be an explanation.

I was also thinking that hit Rocco took during the UCF game. Possible concussion/seeing ghosts.

 

[NorthCyd]

I was also thinking that hit Rocco took during the UCF game. Possible concussion/seeing ghosts.

Rocco took a lot of hits during the UCF game. He had 20 carries and was sacked 3 times. That's nuts for a guy his size. The beating he took and the book that UCF put out on how to stop our offense really messed him up I think. I wouldn't be surprised if he picked up a couple of nagging injuries from that game. Protection has gotten better since the KU game and hopefully playing in a dome against an opponent that typically doesn't put a lot of pressure on the QB will help him get back to early season form.

 

[VeloClone]

Yards per game vs. Notable P4 RBs in game order
Game..Team..RB..NCAA rank..ypg...yds v. ISU...Delta
1...Iowa...Johnson....6....128.1....187...+58.9
2...UH...Sneed.........UR....28....79...+51
3...BU...Washington...19....100.4....28...-72.4
4...WVU...White.....78....68.1....46...-22.1
5...UCF...Harvey......5....131.4....196...+64.6
6...TTU...Brooks......2....136.8....122...-14.8
7...KU...Neal..........17....105.5....116...+10.5
8...UC...Kiner..........25....96.1....120...+23.9
9...UU...Bernard....40....84.1....42...-42.1
10...KSU...Giddens....13....111.9....72...-39.9
11...ASU...Skattebo....7....127.1....TBD...

Note that ISU has/will face:
4 of the top 10
7 of the top 20
8 of the top 25
...in 11 P4 games.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

After how our team looked in Memphis, why should fans show up to a bowl game? Bowls are dead. Use it as part of a vacation if you need it, but only if you're already looking at going to the area.

A bowl game after the B12 championship game and upcoming game in Dublin is a lot to ask of our core base that travels well. 2025 is going to be a financial down year in my household and with the Dublin trip booked, we are passing on B12 CCG and bowl. Otherwise, I’d love to go to the CCG and even a bowl game. I hate that bowls have been devalued.

 

[Sigmapolis]

55.0% win expectation on the ESPN FPI calculator

 

[TopCy]

For what it's worth, if the game is close I trust our end-game strategizing better than theirs. That BYU game was almost a Rhoades-vs-KSU level disaster for them, and we've won some games this year because of how we managed the clock. I hope we're up two or three scores with two minutes to go, but if not I won't panic as much as I used to.

 

[SunDevil033]

Hey Iowa State fans,

I'm just a humble Sun Devil who is nervous about the game, stumbled in here, and excited to talk about this matchup. I'd love to provide a little context for you to understand ASU a little better, and I'd love it if you could share with me some important context for your own team! I'm active on the Sun Devil boards so I'll most definitely bring what I learn back to my fellow Sun Devils.

For the record, I believe this game will be very close and an absolute coin flip. Both teams have proven they have incredible grit, clutch playmakers, and both teams find ways to win when the going gets tough. Neither team gets shaken up. Both teams have excellent coaching. From a pure football standpoint - I think we're going to see some incredible football moments in this game.

A few questions I have for you guys...

1. I've seen a lot of talk of your run defense being improved vs KSU. What are the reasons for that? Players returning from injury? Scheme changes? Obviously as an ASU fan, this is the matchup I'm most excited for.
2. If ISU is able to slow Skat down significantly, who will the ISU players be that need to step up the most to make that happen?
3. If you had to swap any players from ASU's team to your team, who would you swap and why? (Please...take our kicker.)
4. A few days ago I looked into the average passing offense your team has faced, and it's 82nd in the nation. I believe this has contributed to your great pass defense rating, resulting in you being a bit overrated in that area. What do you believe I am missing?
5. If you've been reading ASU perspectives, what do you think most ASU fans are getting wrong?

Three notes on Skattebo

1. In ASU's offense Skattebo is often the target of screen passes or passes in to the flats. This means a great deal of his production is recorded as passing yards, not just rushing yards. However most analysis I'm seeing here is only talking about pure rushing numbers. Skattebo is currently #2 in the nation in yards per game from scrimmage (rushing + receiving yards.) #1 is Jeanty. Yards from scrimmage is a more appropriate way to measure Skat's production on this ASU offense as it captures his full impact, not just the times the ball is handed off to him. (He's currently ranked #8 nationally in touchdowns from scrimmage.)
2. What makes Skattebo the best back in the Big 12 isn't just that he's #1 in the conference in ypg from scrimmage, but that he not only breaks tackles, but moves through tackles. Meaning if he's met in a gap by a defensive player in a short yardage situation, he's still extremely reliable in getting forward to that first down. It's very rare that someone stops him in his tracks unless they wrap his feet up. 34% of Skat's carries this season have resulted in a first down or a touchdown.
3. It's my contention that Skat is absolutely the best back in the Big 12 and the best back ISU has faced all season. Nick Saban called him his "favorite college player to watch" for a reason. However he's not the "only good back" you've faced. I think he'll be the biggest handful for you, but it's not like your defense has been facing cupcake backs all season. If anyone isn't taking him seriously, the stats overwhelmingly say you should, and he's been playing his best football here in November with about a +30 ypg increase since early season. (Averaging 183.8 ypg in November.)

Two notes on Leavitt

1. Important context on Leavitt is that he improved rapidly as a passer after the Texas Tech game. He had some footwork issues causing his accuracy to be pretty rough in the early season, but he's been putting it together and putting in some really brilliant performances for a RS freshman. Most importantly, his accuracy is extremely improved from early season and he takes care of the ball. Among the INTs he does have, few were bad decisions by him. Many were tipped balls.
2. One other note on Leavitt - since Tyson's emergence, Leavitt has relied less on his legs. But early in the season ASU was winning games because of Skat and Leavitt's rushing yards. With Tyson now out, watch for Leavitt's legs to come in to play more.

A note on Tyson and the ASU Passing Game

1. I'm willing to let anyone call this pure cope, but I try to to be as unbiased as I can with my team. Tyson being out absolutely hurts and anyone who acts like it doesn't is being a homer. But ASU is not without other threats at WR. I've seen a few ISU fans claim ASU is now a one dimensional offense without Tyson, but that's just not the case. During our best games, ASU had Tyson + Skattebo + Metayer to pass to, and given we run a lot as well, that's not a lot of touches left for guys like Stovall and Guillory. Stovall and Guillory can absolutely get behind a defense, and have on multiple occasions when they get the opportunity. They just don't get many of them. Hopefully the this kind of explains why ASU fans aren't in a full panic without Tyson. We're not one dimensional. We're definitely worse without him, though.

 

[SunDevil033]

For what it's worth, if the game is close I trust our end-game strategizing better than theirs. That BYU game was almost a Rhoades-vs-KSU level disaster for them, and we've won some games this year because of how we managed the clock. I hope we're up two or three scores with two minutes to go, but if not I won't panic as much as I used to.

This one was definitely as puzzling for us as it was for the rest of the nation who saw it. The logic Dilly had here was that we could burn 7 seconds off per play. But that is in ideal conditions, and BYU certainly wasn't going to give us those. Every once in a while Dilly reminds us he's still a young coach.

Overall this season his clock management has been really good. BYU is one of six games we won decided by 7 or fewer points. Dilly is 5 of 6 in managing close games well. One of his greatest strengths is that he learns. He admitted in a press conference after the fact he'd never make that decision again.

 

[ClonerJams]

Hey Iowa State fans,

I'm just a humble Sun Devil who is nervous about the game, stumbled in here, and excited to talk about this matchup. I'd love to provide a little context for you to understand ASU a little better, and I'd love it if you could share with me some important context for your own team! I'm active on the Sun Devil boards so I'll most definitely bring what I learn back to my fellow Sun Devils.

For the record, I believe this game will be very close and an absolute coin flip. Both teams have proven they have incredible grit, clutch playmakers, and both teams find ways to win when the going gets tough. Neither team gets shaken up. Both teams have excellent coaching. From a pure football standpoint - I think we're going to see some incredible football moments in this game.

A few questions I have for you guys...

1. I've seen a lot of talk of your run defense being improved vs KSU. What are the reasons for that? Players returning from injury? Scheme changes? Obviously as an ASU fan, this is the matchup I'm most excited for.
2. If ISU is able to slow Skat down significantly, who will the ISU players be that need to step up the most to make that happen?
3. If you had to swap any players from ASU's team to your team, who would you swap and why? (Please...take our kicker.)
4. A few days ago I looked into the average passing offense your team has faced, and it's 82nd in the nation. I believe this has contributed to your great pass defense rating, resulting in you being a bit overrated in that area. What do you believe I am missing?
5. If you've been reading ASU perspectives, what do you think most ASU fans are getting wrong?

Three notes on Skattebo

1. In ASU's offense Skattebo is often the target of screen passes or passes in to the flats. This means a great deal of his production is recorded as passing yards, not just rushing yards. However most analysis I'm seeing here is only talking about pure rushing numbers. Skattebo is currently #2 in the nation in yards per game from scrimmage (rushing + receiving yards.) #1 is Jeanty. Yards from scrimmage is a more appropriate way to measure Skat's production on this ASU offense as it captures his full impact, not just the times the ball is handed off to him. (He's currently ranked #8 nationally in touchdowns from scrimmage.)
2. What makes Skattebo the best back in the Big 12 isn't just that he's #1 in the conference in ypg from scrimmage, but that he not only breaks tackles, but moves through tackles. Meaning if he's met in a gap by a defensive player in a short yardage situation, he's still extremely reliable in getting forward to that first down. It's very rare that someone stops him in his tracks unless they wrap his feet up. 34% of Skat's carries this season have resulted in a first down or a touchdown.
3. It's my contention that Skat is absolutely the best back in the Big 12 and the best back ISU has faced all season. Nick Saban called him his "favorite college player to watch" for a reason. However he's not the "only good back" you've faced. I think he'll be the biggest handful for you, but it's not like your defense has been facing cupcake backs all season. If anyone isn't taking him seriously, the stats overwhelmingly say you should, and he's been playing his best football here in November with about a +30 ypg increase since early season. (Averaging 183.8 ypg in November.)

Two notes on Leavitt

1. Important context on Leavitt is that he improved rapidly as a passer after the Texas Tech game. He had some footwork issues causing his accuracy to be pretty rough in the early season, but he's been putting it together and putting in some really brilliant performances for a RS freshman. Most importantly, his accuracy is extremely improved from early season and he takes care of the ball. Among the INTs he does have, few were bad decisions by him. Many were tipped balls.
2. One other note on Leavitt - since Tyson's emergence, Leavitt has relied less on his legs. But early in the season ASU was winning games because of Skat and Leavitt's rushing yards. With Tyson now out, watch for Leavitt's legs to come in to play more.

A note on Tyson and the ASU Passing Game

1. I'm willing to let anyone call this pure cope, but I try to to be as unbiased as I can with my team. Tyson being out absolutely hurts and anyone who acts like it doesn't is being a homer. But ASU is not without other threats at WR. I've seen a few ISU fans claim ASU is now a one dimensional offense without Tyson, but that's just not the case. During our best games, ASU had Tyson + Skattebo + Metayer to pass to, and given we run a lot as well, that's not a lot of touches left for guys like Stovall and Guillory. Stovall and Guillory can absolutely get behind a defense, and have on multiple occasions when they get the opportunity. They just don't get many of them. Hopefully the this kind of explains why ASU fans aren't in a full panic without Tyson. We're not one dimensional. We're definitely worse without him, though.

Welcome. To answer the question about our run defense, I think its a few reasons.

1. Guys getting healthy again
2. The young guys that were thrust into action way earlier than they were expected have gotten better as the season has progressed.

 

[EvilBetty]

They do direct snaps to Skattebo in the red zone. He had almost 300 yards vs Arizona the other day.

watch for the skattebo half back pass to a TE at some point.

 

[EvilBetty]

Their defense is similar to KSU's against the run, and similar to UCF and Cinci's against the pass.

As far as Skattebo goes, he shouldnt scare anyone at all. He is a good back, but his YPG average is as high as it is because ASU has been able to beat up on bad defenses. Miss. State gave up 262 on the ground to him alone, AZ gave up 177, and KU and OSU gave up 335 combined. AZ, and OSU are the worst rush defenses in the B12.

For point of reference, Wyoming and Texas State gave up 111 yards to Skattebo, combined. K-State kept him under 80.

IMO, those of you going down for the game need to be prepared to party, because I dont think this game is all that close, unless ISU decides to spot ASU some points

although ISU did contain KSU, we are still the second to worst defense against the run in league play. somehow still the best against the pass and in scoring D which is perplexing.

 

[RagingCloner]

although ISU did contain KSU, we are still the second to worst defense against the run in league play. somehow still the best against the pass and in scoring D which is perplexing.

Honestly depends on how you look at it. By yardage, yes we are 3rd to worst. I would challenge you to look at the TD numbers though. We are tied with CU, UCF, and UH with only 14 TD's given up, which is 4th best in the conference. most likely why we are still the top scoring defense