Are Free Throws really that hard to make?

[VeloClone]

At heart I am a numbers guy so I thought I would dig into this.

NCAA
ISU .685
Best team
Nova .814 (delta -.129)
Worst team
Army .589 (delta +.096)
I am too lazy to calculate the mean of all the teams but the mean between the top and bottom two teams is .702 (delta -.017).
If we throw out the top 10 and bottom 10 which tend to be a bit of outliers the mean between 11th best and 11th worst is .709 (delta -.024)

Big 12 Teams (all games)
ISU .685
Best team
TTU .776 (delta -.091)
Worst team
OSU .676 (delta +.009)
Mean percentage (4296/5985) .718 (delta -.033)


Big 12 (conference games only)
ISU .667
Best team
TTU .767 (delta -.100)
Worst team
ISU .667
Mean percentage (1651/2307) .716 (delta -.049)^
Ave FT per team per game (2307/122 team games) 18.91
Discounting missed front ends of 1 and 1s* which all teams have from time to time ISU is missing out on:
1.891 points to TTU
0.927 points to the league average
ISU actually goes to the line 21.38 times per game so those missed points are actually:
2.138 points to TTU
1.048 points to the league average

*I looked at missed front ends of 1 and 1s, but it is too difficult to calculate without digging into individual box scores. In a game there are a maximum of 6 opportunities (fouls 7, 8 and 9 in both the first and second half) which are decreased by each half that ISU doesn't get to 9 fouls drawn and each 7, 8 or 9th foul that is a shooting or flagrant foul (2 or 3 shot foul). So if ISU reached that maximum in a game they would likely be missing out on an additional 0.460 points [6 x .100 (to get the extra shot) x .767 (to make the extra shot)] to TTU and 0.211 (6 x .049 x .716) to the league average.

^Note that ISU's 'FT defense' has opposing teams hitting .707 (tied for 5th) of shots. That is .009 better than the league mean. It is arguable how much of that is who ISU has played and how much is the effect ISU's defense has on the physical and mental state of players who go to the line against ISU. Houston (the #1 defense) has the best 'FT defense' in the league at .670.

Take from this what you will.


An interesting anomoly I encountered. BYU is far and away the worst team getting to the line in Big 12 play. Not terribly surprising when you consider how many 3 pointers they attempt. They have been to the line 109 times (13.625 per game) while the next lowest average is Tech at 146 (18.25). BYU earned 24 of their trips to the line in one game - the ISU game. That is 22% of their conference FT trips in 12.5% of their games. It will be interesting to see what happens in Hilton.

EDIT: Corrected calculation on 1 and 1 points to include both the increased chance of getting the extra shot and the actual percentage chance of making the extra shot. The chance of making the extra shot was initially omitted. Also added details about 'FT defense'.

 

[Nolaeer]

Free throws are an innate skill. Hand/eye coordination.
It can be improved, but two kids on my 6th grade church basketball team were money from free throw line. Like 90 percent ft shooters.

When they missed, it was truly a surprise.

So I think a lot of it is God given, although practice helps.

 

[Billups06]

Rob and Lipsey have attempted almost a 1/3 (32.5%) of Iowa State's total FT (72 for Rob, 92 for Lipsey). Rob and Lipsey are a combined 59% FT percentage on the year.

I don't think there's much hope of Rob improving. On the other hand, Tamin has to improve at the line as he gets there the 2nd most on the team (with the 2nd worst FT % of the 6 guys who have attempted over 30 FT on the year).

 

[jmb]

Rob and Lipsey have attempted almost a 1/3 (32.5%) of Iowa State's total FT (72 for Rob, 92 for Lipsey). Rob and Lipsey are a combined 59% FT percentage on the year.

I don't think there's much hope of Rob improving. On the other hand, Tamin has to improve at the line as he gets there the 2nd most on the team (with the 2nd worst FT % of the 6 guys who have attempted over 30 FT on the year).

This is interesting data.

 

[Die4Cy]

 

[ruxCYtable]

I'd think it would be pretty hard with thousands of people breathing down your neck and your adrenaline flowing. I'd also think they'd be used to playing in front of crowds by now.

I had the same question and when I went to the gym yesterday I made 13 in a row with no warmup, so there's that.

 

[CascadeClone]

This is interesting data.

	FTM	FTA	FT%	% of FTA
Keshon Gilbert G	83​	117​	70.9%​	27%​
Tamin Lipsey G	61​	92​	66.3%​	21%​
Robert Jones F	36​	72​	50.0%​	17%​
Milan Momcilovic F	43​	50​	86.0%​	12%​
Tre King F	39​	49​	79.6%​	11%​
Curtis Jones G	27​	35​	77.1%​	8%​
Hason Ward F	10​	19​	52.6%​	4%​
	299​	434​	68.9%​

Here's some more data, hope the table shows up. This is just the top 6 guys who get the minutes.

KG & TL take basically half the FTs, and this problem is really on them, frankly. If our 2 top guards shot it at the same rate as Curt Jones (77.1%), then the team percentage goes from 69% to 73%. So from like ~275th to ~130th.

This is doubly an issue late in games when - because guess who has the ball in their hands trying to make something happen? KG draws 3 more attempts per minute per game than Curt, and TL 2 times more.

I am sure the staff knows all this and 20x more, and is working on it. Just thought I would share some ##s.

 

[CascadeClone]

you are right it is mental. BRE looked good at the beginning of the year and now something is off with his shooting style.

I would love to see Rob shoot granny style. Take a bunch of the body mechanics out of it, the left/right aim is easier, and better backspin.

Plus if ANYONE could do it and laugh it off, it would be BRE.

 

[RezClone]

This team shoots free throws like a violent mob boss is forcing them to throw the game.

 

[VeloClone]

do you remember a player Devin Riley playing from 95-99 for ISU. He is on facebook just blistering anyone who doesnot agree with him about freethrows and points BRE cost the team last night. I am curious as I don't remember him. Hemakes it sound like he is a stud.

I thought that name sounded recently familiar and then today I got another email from Devin Riley trying to get me to become a member of Life Time Health Clubs again. Apparently he is a Membership Consultant at Life Time. What are the odds that there are two people with that creative first name spelling and the same last name?

 

[amishclone]

I would love to see Rob shoot granny style. Take a bunch of the body mechanics out of it, the left/right aim is easier, and better backspin.

Plus if ANYONE could do it and laugh it off, it would be BRE.

Nah, let's stick with loser style. If there's one thing we can't afford, it's not looking cool

 

[theshadow]

Saw a study years ago that indicated heavy weightlifting negatively impacted free throw shooting accuracy, but I think there's been plenty of research to rebut that in the years that followed. It's about perfecting a repetitive motion, not about being too tired or adding bulk that makes the shot more difficult.

Believe it or not, this was actually a popular message board concern in 2000 and 2001 -- that the players were too muscular to be decent FT shooters. Those teams shot 70% and 73%, respectively.

 

[VeloClone]

Believe it or not, this was actually a popular message board concern in 2000 and 2001 -- that the players were too muscular to be decent FT shooters. Those teams shot 70% and 73%, respectively.

Right now, I would take a team 70% FT rate and give a hell of a lot for 73%.

73% would be 6th in league play.

 

[ZRF]

	FTM	FTA	FT%	% of FTA
Keshon Gilbert G	83​	117​	70.9%​	27%​
Tamin Lipsey G	61​	92​	66.3%​	21%​
Robert Jones F	36​	72​	50.0%​	17%​
Milan Momcilovic F	43​	50​	86.0%​	12%​
Tre King F	39​	49​	79.6%​	11%​
Curtis Jones G	27​	35​	77.1%​	8%​
Hason Ward F	10​	19​	52.6%​	4%​
	299​	434​	68.9%​

Here's some more data, hope the table shows up. This is just the top 6 guys who get the minutes.

KG & TL take basically half the FTs, and this problem is really on them, frankly. If our 2 top guards shot it at the same rate as Curt Jones (77.1%), then the team percentage goes from 69% to 73%. So from like ~275th to ~130th.

This is doubly an issue late in games when - because guess who has the ball in their hands trying to make something happen? KG draws 3 more attempts per minute per game than Curt, and TL 2 times more.

I am sure the staff knows all this and 20x more, and is working on it. Just thought I would share some ##s.

I would scrap these stats in general. It's the conference stats, those against better competition (ie higher leverage situations) and the teams we need to beat that matter.

I didn't go through and do breakdowns for each player but we are 104/171 in conference play, a moribund 60.8%. Dividing that 104 by 9 gives you 13 points in FTs /game in Big 12 play. If we shot .73 percent as a team, which seems like an average number for power 5-6 teams, we would score about 21 more points per game, or roughly 3 points per game. That's pretty massive and doesn't really tell the entire tale as some of our misses are the front end of a 1 and 1 situation (losing the change at more FTs and points).

Both Tamin and Keshon are shooting a little better in conference (68.8 to 66.3 and 74.2 tp 70.9), but the team stats aren't good. As a collective we probably have one of the worst group of bigs in the country (as a group at shooting FTs). I think they are all below their yearly rate in conference. When that group is getting 40% of your teams FTs and shooting 40-50 % as a collective that's a problem.

 

[ZRF]

Right now, I would take a team 70% FT rate and give a hell of a lot for 73%.

73% would be 6th in league play.

We are shooting 60.8% in conference. I would take either of those numbers and never look back. That's anywhere from 2-4 (maybe 5) extra points a game.

 

[madguy30]

Believe it or not, this was actually a popular message board concern in 2000 and 2001 -- that the players were too muscular to be decent FT shooters. Those teams shot 70% and 73%, respectively.

Anecdotal but here's a 73% free throw shooter. About average for a center I think but wasn't bad either.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Free Throw shooting is one of those things that can be difficult to work into a practice. You are spending time prepping the team for your opponent you are playing, and working through your offense, throw in conditioning and I am sure that FT are being worked on more on 1 on 1 sessions with the coaches before or after practice.

Its just one of those deals that you have to work on daily, and find the best routine for each kid and then get them doing it every time they are at the line.

 

[NY Chicago Fan]

Lipsey's FT % has gone down while his general shooting has improved.

The 'mental toughness' angle doesn't make sense to me considering ISU even having a chance vs. many teams that have an athletic advantage takes toughness.

I don't think it is mental toughness.

Just needs more practice. My assumption is last summer Lipsey did ton of jump shooting / 3pt practice. Not same stroke as on the line

 

[NENick]

ZRF, please clarify:
"we would score about 21 more points per game, or roughly 3 points per game"

Also, "As a collective we probably have one of the worst group of bigs in the country (as a group at shooting FTs)."

I think you have to include King as one of the bigs and he's nearly 80%.

Not disputing that FT shooting has been a weakness. The guards should be better and too often it's RJones getting to the line.

 

[ZRF]

ZRF, please clarify:
"we would score about 21 more points per game, or roughly 3 points per game"

Also, "As a collective we probably have one of the worst group of bigs in the country (as a group at shooting FTs)."

I think you have to include King as one of the bigs and he's nearly 80%.

Not disputing that FT shooting has been a weakness. The guards should be better and too often it's RJones getting to the line.

Meant to say over the course of the conference. The collection of big is King, Ward, BRE, and Omaha. Obviously Tre is better and OMaha doesn't really play but even King's average is lower during B12 play. As a collective they've all been worse.

King is one of the bigs. While he's certainly a much better FT shooter he's also been slighly worse in conference and shoots less Fts (typically) than BRE and Ward. Hence why I used the term "collective".

Agree on the second point.