A Computer Simulated the 2012 CFB Season 50,000 times

[chuckd4735]

Saw this over on Hawkeye Nation, here is the Big 12's numbers...College Football Preview 2011: Free Analysis on Every Team from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.com

ISU's numbers...

Iowa State Cyclones
Power Rank: 50
Offensive Rank: 16
Defensive Rank: 47
Projected Regular Season Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Conference Standing: 9
Projected Bowl: None

I cant believe we will have the 16th best offense in the Country (7th best in the Big 12).

 

[CLONECONES]

interesting that an offensive rank of 17 and defensive rank of 47 would end with a power ranking of 50

 

[3TrueFans]

interesting that an offensive rank of 17 and defensive rank of 47 would end with a power ranking of 50

And a 4-8 record, seems odd.

 

[chuckd4735]

interesting that an offensive rank of 17 and defensive rank of 47 would end with a power ranking of 50

And a 4-8 record, seems odd.

Goes to the strength of the Big 12.

 

[KFitzy87]

Sounds like Netten needs some work

 

[Cy$]

16 Offensive Ranking???


If true, ISU will win 8-9 games.

 

[BloodyBuddy]

And a 4-8 record, seems odd.

Strength of schedule. We have to have a couple upsets to get to the 6-7 win mark. Simulating 50 times will eliminate the computer's upset picks.

 

[isufan]

16 Offensive Ranking???


If true, ISU will win 8-9 games.

This. With our defense, if our offensive ranks 16th, we will win a lot more than 4 games.

 

[Stewo]

You know, they could have just let the computer play NCAA 2013 once and get the same stupid results.

Hey, can we get someone to run and tell the football team that they can only win 4 games this year? I'd just hate to have a computer that did all of that work be proved wrong. I'm just too nice.

 

[chuckd4735]

16 Offensive Ranking???


If true, ISU will win 8-9 games.

This. With our defense, if our offensive ranks 16th, we will win a lot more than 4 games.

The thing is, ISU's offensive ranking is 7th best in the Big 12 and defensive ranking is 6th best. ISU is only better then Kansas in both. Also, better then Iowa and Tulsa in both.

 

[CLONECONES]

The thing is, ISU's offensive ranking is 7th best in the Big 12 and defensive ranking is 6th best. ISU is only better then Kansas in both. Also, better then Iowa and Tulsa in both.

a ohhhhhhhhhhh

 

[CYCL0NE1]

I hate these things. They are only as good as the person who inputs the data. If there is already a bias against ISU, or any other team, it will show up in the results.

 

[CykoAGR]

I dont put much stock into these but how AWESOME would it be to have the 16th rated offense???

I wouldnt want to rank that high if it meant we were 4 wins but that would make for some exciting football!

 

[FarmClone]

Goes to the strength of the Big 12.

This.

Let's use Iowa in comparison.

Power Rank: 52
Offensive Rank: 45
Defensive Rank: 50
Record: 7.2-4.8
Conference rank: 6

So basically 7-5 to our 4-8, the only thing that makes sense is SOS.

 

[Rabbuk]

4-5 wins seems pretty reasonable to me.

 

[Doc]

I like computer predictions. I think we've probably outperformed them the last three years though, and I'm hopeful that we are coached and play a certain way that makes us one of those few teams that consistently outperform the predictions and never regress to the mean

Anybody know how many times we go undefeated out of 50,000? I'm guessing 0.3.

 

[Gravy79]

That computer is biased!! It probably took stars away from ISU's recruits as well.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Iowa State Cyclones
Power Rank: 50
Offensive Rank: 16
Defensive Rank: 47
Projected Regular Season Record: 4.4 - 7.6
Conference Standing: 9
Projected Bowl: None

These means are useless without standard deviations.

 

[stateofmind]

Does it calculate BAC for each home game for me? If it doesn't, it's useless.