It’s hard. One thing that would concern me is how dependent Iowa agriculture is on government subsidies, directly or indirectly, which get capitalized into the cost of land.
If these were largely eliminated, which I believe they ought to be, that might open up some opportunities, some changes in production. If you stick with with crops more dependent on government programs, there is always the risk these will be scaled back. You might start small, like raising a garden or feeding a few calves, and learn more about things in the meantime. You might also save money and be prepared to buy some farm land if there were a major downturn, which you could rent.
As others pointed out, it would be best to have a connection, such as to a retiring farmer. A lot of it is probably luck, no matter how hard you work, and most people are going in the opposite direction of that you are considering. Even if you had a big pile of capital to start, it is quite possible or even likely you wouldn’t be able to maintain it. You might gain on the value of the land but even that might depend on timing.
High oil prices encouraged a new industry like fracking, meaning there is much less upside for an industry like ethanol, relative to a few years ago. Reading an Omaha World-Herald article awhile back on the logistics of moving the input required for cellulosic ethanol, something like turning rural landscape into a 24-hour a day industrial plant, made me pretty highly skeptical about that.
I happened to see an interesting article yesterday about a San Francisco startup called Farmgirl Flowers, including competition she is facing now from domestic marijuana production. Leaving aside that comment, it is interesting her focus on the customer.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbes...a-host-of-venture-backed-rivals/#7345ffc6fb62
Adams: Why have you stopped sourcing all your flowers locally, when you made such a big deal out of that in the beginning?
Stembel: It’s the thing that’s caused me the most angst and stomach issues. I knew when marijuana was legalized we’d have a big problem because flower farmers can lease out their greenhouse space for $1.50 to $2 a square foot for cannabis growing whereas it’s five cents a square foot for flowers. ...
There will probably always be a big market for corn and soybeans, but overproduction is a problem that is more the norm. You are young and might outlive it, but it is a problem particularly at the moment. Because there are a large number of producers, it is competitive, and the most profitable are generally larger, with a lower unit cost, spreading their costs over a larger output.
Many also have an off-farm job.