2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
I guess I can see a little bit how the Big 10 limits the number of days of their tournament. I don't like it but they can make a case for not adding another day to include more teams. But there is no rational explanation whey they are not inviting a 16th team and playing a full roster of 4 games on day 1. There is no excuse for that.
I mean, does the conference save money by not inviting 16th, 17th, 18th placed teams so they don't have to "rent" that venue for an extra day or something? No idea why you wouldn't just add everyone and play one extra day.
Having done zero research, I assume this has to do with making sure bubble teams don't take a really bad loss and they have determined dropping the bottom 3 teams helps.
This is the reason. If you're 9th place team has to play 16, it's going to hurt their metrics regardless of outcome most likely. The goal is that your top 9 are in either way when you get to tournament week and your 10th seed can get a 'free' win over 15 and then beat a 7 that doesn't have much to play for and isn't in the tournament flow.
It's all an attempt to steal an extra bid.
I had forgotten BigTen will have only the top 15 for its tournament this season.Posted in the general CBB thread but Iowa has a 17% chance of MISSING their tournament
That's a good assessment.
More of potential help for bubble teams than the favorites.
If there was risk of 1 seed getting a hindering loss in quarterfinal, it seems like having 8 and 9 have to play additional game would be advantageous.
The conference tournaments are nothing more than a money making enterprise. I know this will never change, but I much prefer, despite several incredible ISU tournament championships, that the tournaments didn't exist. Play the season, let the chips fall where they may.
Wasn't sure where to post this but thought this was good. This is the Trapezoid of Excellence. It shows Pace vs. Net Rating (Adjusted for Opponent) and the teams in the trapezoid have shown to be the best teams in the nation. Iowa State is currently 2-2 vs. those within, with Marquette inching closer and closer.
We are 2-2 while being very close to 4-0 against them.
Yep. Two last-second losses, essentially. Other records within:
Duke: 2-1 (Wins = vs. Auburn, @ Arizona; Loss = N KU)
Houston: 1-1 (Win = @ KU; Loss = N* Auburn)
Texas Tech: 1-1 (Win = vs. Arizona; Loss = vs. Iowa State)
KU: 1-2 (Win = N Duke; Losses = @ Iowa State, vs. Houston)
Arizona: 1-2 (Win = Iowa State, Losses = vs. Duke, @ Texas Tech)
Auburn: 3-1 (Wins = N Iowa State, N Houston, vs. Tennessee; Loss = @ Duke)
Florida: 1-0 (Win = vs. Tennessee)
Tennessee: 0-2 (Losses = @ Florida, @ Auburn)
Maryland: 0-0
I'm actually not sure. He gives this short explanation but it doesn't give specifics on that.
"Trapezoid of excellence are teams that are producing high net rating & do not waiver too far fast or slow. History shows pace versatility leads to more success - you can play against any style of opponent."
Ok. Probably doesn't matter too much. Just seems odd because NET factors in strength of opponent already. I guess all we really need to know is higher is better than lower.
Hawkeye offense and Drake defense humongous outliers.
Great case study for the old adages "defense wins championships" - Drake at 19-2 confirms and "offense puts butts in the seats" - Iowa does not, winning actually matters when it comes to attendance
For reference, when the Trap was updated back in early December, ISU was just below it (kinda where Mizzou is now). We have "improved" in this metric set as the season has progressed.
Well the Big 10 and the MVC are a lot different in competition I will say that. They probably wouldn't be that far off if you gave Iowa Drake's schedule. I do think Drake is better than Iowa but I think they'd be a decent matchup.
Also, winning puts butts in seats. It doesn't matter how you do it.
Any way to alter this to show seed likelihood with an ISU win @ Arizona and Houston loss @ KU?
Not that I’m aware of. This guy, I think, runs a bunch of simulations (based on what I don’t know) and comes up with the most outcomes
