2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

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Sorry but I do think it’s great.

I refuse to live in a world where a 2 seed is 'not great'.

Right? How in the world are we in a spot where some think a 2 isn’t great. That means we are considered a top 8 team out of 350 or so teams.

I never miss an opportunity to reference Chernobyl considering...

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...the "meltdown" we always have on here after any loss of any kind.

In hindsight, I was relying on underlying "great" to do too much work creating emphasis. What I meant was the regular season is not likely to be a transcendent one as indicated by accomplishments such as a #1 AP ranking, winning the Big 12 regular season, and earning a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

But "only" earning a #2 (even if that is "even" with last year) is nothing to be ashamed of given our history. It would only be the fourth such seed in we've achieved, indicating a very strong season even if not a truly superlative one, we're likely to land in our most preferred destination for the first weekend of the tournament assuming no total collapse, and we've got just about a good a chance as anybody in March and April.

So, yes, we're doing great, provided we get right against TCU tomorrow.
 
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Letterkenny

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So, we are the 7th best team, but get shoved back to a #4 seed in NCAA tourney. Sounds like something that happens to us.
I believe he's talking about being the #4 seed in the Big 12 tournament, not the NCAA.
 

Sigmapolis

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No, it's for the NCAA tournament.
Sig will have to explain why.

The good thing about Team Rankings --

They send me a nice email every morning after a game with updated projections.

The bad thing about Team Rankings --

Their projections are rated as some of the weakest amid forecasters/bracketologists.

We're probably trending more in the #3 direction right now or #2 if things go really well (and I would define "really well" as something like winning every game but at Houston).
 
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alarson

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It's not that hard to see the difference.

The metrics see us as the 7th best team but think our projected resume based on that will be in the 13-16 range.
 
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Sigmapolis

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It's not that hard to see the difference.

The metrics see us as the 7th best team but think our projected resume based on that will be in the 13-16 range.

We've got a Q3 loss. It's an eyesore on the team sheet.

Might drop us to a #4 depending on how the rest of the season goes.

The #12/#13 line can be fine sometimes.
 
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Sigmapolis

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Isn’t Q3 starting at NET 75?

Kansas state is 73 so it’s a q2 at this point right?

I think Torvik projects those out to the end of the season.

(Which is where I saw the Q3 loss.)

I think Torvik might be projecting K-State to slip just below the 75 line before we're done.

Obviously K-State is surging right now... which at least has the small benefit of making that a Q2 loss.

But yeah, that one could go either way depending on how the Purple Kitties play.
 
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Cloned4Life

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We've got a Q3 loss. It's an eyesore on the team sheet.

Might drop us to a #4 depending on how the rest of the season goes.

The #12/#13 line can be fine sometimes.
Dang. 4 seed would be a bummer.

(I know..I know..)