2019 Conference allocations for Wrestling Announced

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Looks like our allocations will go to 5 at 165.
Joe Smith replacing Chandler Rogers for Ok State.

I really think John Smith is trying to make a point about not liking the way allocations and weight descent plans work! Ok State lost 3 allocations for the conference!

Cowboy head coach John Smith reportedly had the following to say:

It’s the situation we are in. We’ve always tried to put the best team on the mat, the team that can score the most points at an NCAA Tournament. It’s nice to have that depth, but these decisions aren’t easy. There are certainly some things we need to address with the allocation process, especially with this descent plan, taking injuries into consideration and being able to get a certain number of matches.

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6381478-joseph-smith-wins-wrestle-off-with-chandler-rogers

 

[GrappleCy]

Looks like our allocations will go to 5 at 165.
Joe Smith replacing Chandler Rogers for Ok State.

I really think John Smith is trying to make a point about not liking the way allocations and weight descent plans work! Ok State lost 3 allocations for the conference!

Cowboy head coach John Smith reportedly had the following to say:

It’s the situation we are in. We’ve always tried to put the best team on the mat, the team that can score the most points at an NCAA Tournament. It’s nice to have that depth, but these decisions aren’t easy. There are certainly some things we need to address with the allocation process, especially with this descent plan, taking injuries into consideration and being able to get a certain number of matches.

https://www.flowrestling.org/articles/6381478-joseph-smith-wins-wrestle-off-with-chandler-rogers

I get why they made the lineup change but that's just him being salty about his bad roster management. The whole process is designed to reward how guys have performed over the course of the season and he was the one who put them at different weights for most of the year and waited until the absolute last minute to move them down. And it doesn't even hurt his guys, they are all AA caliber and will surely steal spots. It's the last guy who earned a spot at each of those weights (and the guys who had been hoping to upset that guy) that are hurt by the shift.

 

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I agree. I am also wondering how they will seed Joe Smith at NCAA at 165 with no history at that weight.

 

[GrappleCy]

I agree. I am also wondering how they will seed Joe Smith at NCAA at 165 with no history at that weight.

He won't be eligible for a coaches ranking (needs 5 matches) or a win percentage (needs 8 matches) or an RPI (needs 17 matches). That's 35% of the seeding criteria right there that he'll have zeros on. What he can get at Big 12s though is...
Quality Wins (20%) - Even with Rogers out there are 3 guys in the Big 12 ranked in the top twelve plus Fogarty at 17. So he could pick up a quality win or two.
Head-to-Head (25%): He can get one or two head to head wins over Steiert/Romero/Ashworth that'll help him get ahead of them
Common Opponents (10%): Similar to the head to head criteria but this could help him when being compared against non Big 12 guys that Steiert/Romero/Ashworth/Fogarty have wrestled.
Conference Tournament Placement (10%): I don't know exactly how this one works for guys who aren't in the same conference but winning Big 12s can't hurt.

So yeah, he'll be underseeded no matter what. But that's what you risk when you make an ultra late weight shift.

 

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He won't be eligible for a coaches ranking (needs 5 matches) or a win percentage (needs 8 matches) or an RPI (needs 17 matches). That's 35% of the seeding criteria right there that he'll have zeros on. What he can get at Big 12s though is...
Quality Wins (20%) - Even with Rogers out there are 3 guys in the Big 12 ranked in the top twelve plus Fogarty at 17. So he could pick up a quality win or two.
Head-to-Head (25%): He can get one or two head to head wins over Steiert/Romero/Ashworth that'll help him get ahead of them
Common Opponents (10%): Similar to the head to head criteria but this could help him when being compared against non Big 12 guys that Steiert/Romero/Ashworth/Fogarty have wrestled.
Conference Tournament Placement (10%): I don't know exactly how this one works for guys who aren't in the same conference but winning Big 12s can't hurt.

So yeah, he'll be underseeded no matter what. But that's what you risk when you make an ultra late weight shift.

Flo FRL this morning, thinks that if Joe wins Big 12's, the seeding committee will place Smith in spot that will not make a major conflict in the NCAA bracket.

Now if he gets 2nd or 3rd at Big 12, it could be a huge mess.

 

[GrappleCy]

Flo FRL this morning, thinks that if Joe wins Big 12's, the seeding committee will place Smith in spot that will not make a major conflict in the NCAA bracket.

Now if he gets 2nd or 3rd at Big 12, it could be a huge mess.

The seeding process is mostly automated and the committee only looks at moving guys around if they are really close after they run the numbers. They don't just move guys around to avoid certain match ups.

 

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The seeding process is mostly automated and the committee only looks at moving guys around if they are really close after they run the numbers. They don't just move guys around to avoid certain match ups.

Think if Joe Smith would get a 16 seed and meet the #1 seed in 2nd round!
Or even an 8 or 9 seed, that would put Smith vs #1 in quarters

 

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What was the situation that Cody Brewer got the 13th seed in 2015 and won? I am recalling the seed off the top of my head and pretty sure he made the finals

 

[cyclonegrap]

Think if Joe Smith would get a 16 seed and meet the #1 seed in 2nd round!
Or even an 8 or 9 seed, that would put Smith vs #1 in quarters

My take on Smith's seed at NCAAs - very similar to GrappleCys

Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
- He will only have head to head on the guys he beats at Big 12s

Quality wins — 20 percent
- He will only have quality wins in the guys he beats at Big 12s

Coaches Ranking — 15 percent
- Needs 5 matches. If he goes 4-0 or 3-0 at Big 12s he is not eligible, if he has a first round match, loses, and wrestles back then it is possible he gets 5 matches at Big 12s

Results against common opponents — 10 percent
- Again, only possible common would be the guys he wrestles at Big 12's

RPI — 10 percent
- Needs 17 matches, not eligible.

Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
- At best he gets first and this would be his best criteria.

Win % — 10 percent
- Needs 8 matches, not eligible

So essentially he is giving up CR(15%), RPI(10%), and Win% (10%) to everyone in the field. That is 35%. If there is no H2H than that is another 12.5% = 47.5% total. So if anyone has 1 quality win or no commons they would have criteria over Smith. The only guys he could have H2H are Branson Ashworth, Wyoming; Demetrius Romero, Utah Valley; Bryce Steiert, Northern Iowa; Andrew Fogarty, North Dakota State; Nick Kiussis, West Virginia

Ashworth (beat White) and Romero (beat Massa) have better quality wins.

The only guys I see him seeded higher would be Steirt and Fograrty, but those guys could have criteria over a hand full of other guys.

Even if Smith wins Big 12, I think his best seed would be 25-28, but most likely unseeded - unless the seeding committee makes an exception (which I don't think they are allowed to do). He would have a top 8 seeded guy first match at NCAA. He could even wrestle the one seed first match.

 

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It is not that I care much about what happens to Smith, but it might suck for the guy that gets Smith that early.

Actually all 3 Ok State guys (165, 174, & 184) might have some questionable seeds at NCAA.
At least there is some data with Jacobe and Dakota at their weights

 

[cyclonegrap]

I think the only precedent of the seeding committee making any changes would be Kyle Snyder in 2016. He was 6-0 going into NCAA and received the 2 seed behind Gwiz and ahead of Ty Walz. Snyder was also an undefeated returning World Champ.

 

[GrappleCy]

It is not that I care much about what happens to Smith, but it might suck for the guy that gets Smith that early.

Actually all 3 Ok State guys (165, 174, & 184) might have some questionable seeds at NCAA.
At least there is some data with Jacobe and Dakota at their weights

Yeah, they other two will have a coaches ranking and a win percentage, plus more data for quality wins and head to head. Missing just RPI will hurt them, but it isn't catastrophic It's just 165 where it's almost all zeros for the seeding criteria.

 

[cyclonegrap]

Yeah, they other two will have a coaches ranking and a win percentage, plus more data for quality wins and head to head. Missing just RPI will hurt them, but it isn't catastrophic It's just 165 where it's almost all zeros for the seeding criteria.

Jacobe is actually sitting pretty good. If he wins Big 12s, he could jump ahead of Lujan in the rankings and he would be undefeated at 174. I could see him anywhere between a 5 and 8 seed. If he loses a match at Big 12s then I see him falling into the low to mid-teens.

 

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A couple early upsets in the EIWA at 157. They have 6 allocations.
Reed of Columbia and Santora of Cornell lost in the 1st round. Not out of running for allocation, but need to do it from the consi side

I am only really following 125, 157, 165, 174 and 285. I think the rest are locked in no matter what.
No upsets yet at 125, 165, 174 or 285.

 

[GrappleCy]

We really need 157 to go completely to chalk for Straw to have a shot. His at large resume is pretty weak so he'll only slip in if the pickings are slim.

 

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Reed and Santora both won their 1st consi match at 157

 

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In the MAC
at 125 - (4 allocations) Laney got beat by West in quarters
at 157 - (5 allocations) Alex Smythe (Buffalo) dec. Zac Carson (Ohio), 3-1 SV1 (both had allocations)
at 165 - (1 allocation) Flynn of Mizz is still winning
at 285 - (4 allocations) 2 lost in quarters (Hilliard and Gunning)
Caleb Gossett (Northern Illinois) maj. dec. William Hilliard (Old Dominion), 13-2
Colton McKiernan (SIU Edwardsville) dec. Jake Gunning (Buffalo), 5-3

 

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In the EIWA
at 125 - (4 allocations) all 4 that earned allocations are in the semis
at 157 - (6 allocations) Quincy Monday is in the semis and steals at spot.
Santoro wrestles Clarke in consi, the loser will need an at large, 2 up for grabs yet
at 165 - (4 allocations) Wolf got beat by McCormick (both have allocations)
Viruet just got beat and had an allocation. Both have to comeback and get 3rd and 4th on consi side

 

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In the Mac at 165 (1 allocation) was to Flynn of Mizz. He just got beat

Wrestling By Pirate‏ @wrestlingbypir8 43s43 seconds ago
Connor Flynn of Missouri is officially the first wrestler who earned an AQ slot to need one from the at-large pool. #

 

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https://wrestlingbypirate.wordpress...will-need-to-go-through-the-at-large-process/


Wrestlers who earned AQ slots, but will need to go through the at-large process:


Note: This is a dynamic list of wrestlers that will grow as the weekend progresses.

125: None
133: None
141: None
149: None
157: Adam Santoro, Cornell (Quincy Monday, Princeton)
165: Connor Flynn, Missouri (Identity unknown, MAC); Identity unknown, EIWA (Identity unknown, EIWA)
174: None
184: None
197: Wyatt Koelling, Missouri (Identity unknown, MAC)
285: Will Hilliard, Old Dominion (Colton McKiernan, Southern Illinois Edwardsville); Identity unknown, EIWA (Identity unknown, EIWA)