Illinois matchup

[madguy30]

I think it's more walking the ball up the court after makes or misses, running the offense, and then putting on at least token full court pressure - that will slow the game down enough that hopefully Illinois doesn't get in their flow with runouts, etc. Shannon likes to attack, even 1 on 3, before the defense is set and mitigating that, making him get shots late in the shot clock, will be huge

The game will probably be in the 70s, but if its in the 60s, we have a great chance of winning. If its in the 80s we have very little chance of winning.

I keep saying it ad nauseam but the achiles heal for ISU looks to be patience when the game speeds up a bit; if ISU does get a run out it will come down to them securing the ball and kicking the ball back out if the easy bucket simply isn't there.

They don't need to bleed the clock, but just make sure it's a secure look.

 

[chuckd4735]

I've just completed my amateur analysis of the game, and ISU wins 74-70.

 

[KCyclone2010]

I hope this game plays out like our sweet sixteen game against Virginia in Niang's last year. We had a great offense, but not much defense. Virginia had a great defense and was efficient on offense. Now the roles are reversed, I hope that means State will come out on top.

 

[Cydkar]

I hope this game plays out like our sweet sixteen game against Virginia in Niang's last year. We had a great offense, but not much defense. Virginia had a great defense and was efficient on offense. Now the roles are reversed, I hope that means State will come out on top.

Do they have a ****** coach? That would make it a perfect mirror image.

 

[CY9008]

Domask and Shannon went 1-11 3pt and 7-27 total against Tennessee’s starting guards that are 5’9 & 6’3.

 

[illinifan2023]

They are on the smaller side, but I would say your teams abilities as playmakers for others and offensive rebounders are the main areas of concern. We double everything, and I mean everything... especially in or near the paint. And it's not a token double like most teams, it's a hyper aggressive all or nothing double meant to take the ball away at all costs.

There aren't really scenarios where anyone is asked to guard one on one, especially down low, and TJ Otz doesn't deviate from that approach regardless of the circumstances. Their rotations and recovery get so many tips and interceptions, and that's what really makes our defense elite. You could hit 5 threes in a row and we will still double the ball and try to turn you over like you haven't made a 3 all year. Sometimes our fans lose their mind over it, but it usually works out in the end.

Marcus Domask is no stranger to a double team, as he, for the most part, is the only one on the team who likes to post up. Morehead State doubled him all game(literally like 17 feet away from the basket) and he ended up with a triple double. I’m sure they’ll be ready for that.

 

[flycy]

I'm also more sure, thinking about it, that we should press after every make or dead ball the whole game - mostly a token press to make them bleed 8+ seconds before getting into their offense - and then mix it up with the hard press occasionally. From everything I've read and seen, they are the type of team that gets frustrated when you slow them down and make them run a half-court offense over and over

Token pressure, fine, but putting on a true full court press could lead to a lot of fast break points. Not advisable in my opinion. Far better to make them score against a set defense. The quality of the defense is the reason ISU rarely presses.

 

[KCyclone2010]

Do they have a ****** coach? That would make it a perfect mirror image.

Good point, I failed to factor in the Steve Prohm effect. Man, what a **** coach. Still makes me mad thinking about how he drove the program to the ground. We are so lucky to have TJ now.

 

[illinifan2023]

I've seen this a bit from Illini fans on line. Tamin Lipsey is 6'1" and Keshon Gilbert is 6'4" - but neither play as "smaller guards". They are both VERY physical

The guard length can cause problems on our offensive end, specifically preventing Lipsey and Gilbert from either getting to their spots, or getting shots / passes off from those spots. But on the other end, I have no concerns. They are both very strong and don't shy away from contact.

I'm very curious to see how we defend the Domask "booty ball" thing, and whether it works at all. My understanding is that Domask, as more of a 6'6" SF than a PG, "posts up" the opposing PG at the 3-pt line, and then backs them down toward the block while the other players run motion and then he either scores or passes out of it to a spot up shooter (Shannon) who can shoot or drive. I don't think he's going to be successful backing down Lipsey, regardless of a 5" height advantage. Tamin will hold his ground and either keep him up high, draw a foul if he's leaning too hard, or swipe the ball. Some of the analysis talked about the double coming when he backs down - but I don't think that's necessarily a given. Tamin won't let him get or turn middle, and if he goes toward the baseline the hard double will come, but I think they'll let him go 1:1 while he's out by the 3-pt line.

that will be a fascinating part of the game to watch

While I agree with the fact that your smaller guards will be feisty, I think Marcus will be able to get his way onto the block if no double comes. He’s been doing it all year with bigger defenders. However, he doesn’t start from the 3 point line, more like the 17-15 foot range.

 

[bawbie]

Token pressure, fine, but putting on a true full court press could lead to a lot of fast break points. Not advisable in my opinion. Far better to make them score against a set defense. The quality of the defense is the reason ISU rarely presses.

The goal of the token pressure is to slow them down, make the shot clock under 20 when they start their offense, and try to force bad shots at the end of the clock

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I hope this game plays out like our sweet sixteen game against Virginia in Niang's last year. We had a great offense, but not much defense. Virginia had a great defense and was efficient on offense. Now the roles are reversed, I hope that means State will come out on top.

This. As long as we don't come out extremely cold the first 10 minutes like Washington State, I like this one to be a Cyclone win. Withstand the first 10 and avoid any long scoring droughts. Illinois can be slowed but probably not stopped entirely. If our shots aren't falling similar to the first 10 min. against Washington St. or last years NCAA tournament game vs Pitt or like in some of our late Feb games this year, we could lose and lose badly IMO. Must have a good start.

 

[madguy30]

Token pressure, fine, but putting on a true full court press could lead to a lot of fast break points. Not advisable in my opinion. Far better to make them score against a set defense. The quality of the defense is the reason ISU rarely presses.

Yeah a full court type of thing turns into a track meet which favors Illinois greatly.

Sometimes ISU puts it on and also picks guys up early but that's very different than trying to trap.

 

[RezClone]

Marcus Domask is no stranger to a double team, as he, for the most part, is the only one on the team who likes to post up. Morehead State doubled him all game(literally like 17 feet away from the basket) and he ended up with a triple double. I’m sure they’ll be ready for that.

Just trying to gage the Illinois mindset here, many turnovers do you expect Illinois will committ against ISU? More or less.

Edit: for comparison, last 5 games Illinois committed:
Duquesne 7
Morehead State 9
Wisconsin 9
Nebraska 9
Ohio State 10

Iowa State forced (last 5 games):
Wazzou 12
South Dakota St 15
Houston 12
Baylor 13
K State 20

ISU Season TOs forced: 17.3 turnovers forced per game overall (16.7 per game Big 12 only)

 

[madguy30]

This. As long as we don't come out extremely cold the first 10 minutes like Washington State, I like this one to be a Cyclone win. Withstand the first 10 and avoid any long scoring droughts. Illinois can be slowed but probably not stopped entirely. If our shots aren't falling similar to the first 10 min. against Washington St. or last years NCAA tournament game vs Pitt or like in some of our late Feb games this year, we could lose and lose badly IMO. Must have a good start.

Wazzou had a lot to do with that cold start by getting in to ISU a bit and making them press their looks. It eventually calmed down as ISU started getting to the hoop.

This ISU team is nothing like last year's team in that way so a Pitt-type offensive performance would be pretty shocking.

 

[Nelcyn]

Marcus Domask is no stranger to a double team, as he, for the most part, is the only one on the team who likes to post up. Morehead State doubled him all game(literally like 17 feet away from the basket) and he ended up with a triple double. I’m sure they’ll be ready for that.

Keyword above in bold.

 

[CY9008]

Illinois seems wildly confident for an 8 loss team. Seems like we’re playing UConn already or at least someone that has a defensive strategy that’s something other than more effort the last month or so.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

Willing to bet our offense isn't as bad as shown since our last five games of the season really tanked our offensive ratings.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I've seen this a bit from Illini fans on line. Tamin Lipsey is 6'1" and Keshon Gilbert is 6'4" - but neither play as "smaller guards". They are both VERY physical

The guard length can cause problems on our offensive end, specifically preventing Lipsey and Gilbert from either getting to their spots, or getting shots / passes off from those spots. But on the other end, I have no concerns. They are both very strong and don't shy away from contact.

I'm very curious to see how we defend the Domask "booty ball" thing, and whether it works at all. My understanding is that Domask, as more of a 6'6" SF than a PG, "posts up" the opposing PG at the 3-pt line, and then backs them down toward the block while the other players run motion and then he either scores or passes out of it to a spot up shooter (Shannon) who can shoot or drive. I don't think he's going to be successful backing down Lipsey, regardless of a 5" height advantage. Tamin will hold his ground and either keep him up high, draw a foul if he's leaning too hard, or swipe the ball. Some of the analysis talked about the double coming when he backs down - but I don't think that's necessarily a given. Tamin won't let him get or turn middle, and if he goes toward the baseline the hard double will come, but I think they'll let him go 1:1 while he's out by the 3-pt line.

that will be a fascinating part of the game to watch

Yeah, from what I've seen of this booty ball, I don't think it will work well against this Iowa State team. I am a homer, though.

 

[madguy30]

View attachment 126426 View attachment 126427

Willing to bet our offense isn't as bad as shown since our last five games of the season really tanked our offensive ratings.

What site is this and is there a way to find the last 5 games?

 

[Cydkar]

Illinois seems wildly confident for an 8 loss team. Seems like we’re playing UConn already or at least someone that has a defensive strategy that’s something other than more effort the last month or so.

Fans and talking heads don't matter.