Iowa Storm Chasing Network just put out 4 different model runs, all showing that dry slot in western Iowa. One model moving everything north quite a ways, but most are relatively consistent.
Not sure what our weather folks on this site think about them (Iowa Storm Chasing group), but I feel they have been pretty darn accurate the last two years.
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#4 because that has been the trend all year.
I don't know but I think #4 was the closest. Had the northern branch close and less snow in the CR area. The southern branch just didn't have as much moisture as expected.