Anti-Big 12 Bias: A Brief Study

StPaulCyclone

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Duh!
I think the truth is the Big 12 has a lot of teams in the 12-35 range. As many as any conference, but no real contenders this year.

Last year's TCU team was a lot better than the best teams this year. People thought Utah would be that but they weren't even close. We'll have years with better elite teams, there's too much talent in Texas not to, most likely TCU, Baylor or even Tech will hop up and surprise. I also wouldn't be surprised if BYU is a team to reckon with going forward long term. Either of the AZ teams could be a handful as a program long term if they get the right coach to stay, Arizona was on track if they could've kept the coach.

My issue with the original post is the ACC, MWC and AAC aren't any better and are consistently ranked higher by commitee/AP than they are by any more logical metric. The Big 12 isn't getting that "just because" boost.
I can help thinking if OSU, KSU and UU were at the top of the league, it would help the perception since they been consistently good for a while.
 

Cloned4Life

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Meh, I'm not putting a ton of stock into those early season games. Colorado and Nebby are obviously completely different teams than they were in those early weeks.
Unfortunately, literally every anti-Big 12 media influencer/personality/voter/etc. will in fact use this heavily against the Big 12. It was and still is a bad look for the Big 12.
 

Cloned4Life

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IMO, Fans of Big XII teams should ALWAYS root for the other Big XII teams OOC. It makes a difference, as we are seeing this year. Save the schaudenfreude for conference games. If all 16 Big XII teams were 3-0 this year OOC, the Big XII would NOT have a perception problem. Just my onion.
Exactly. It’s never, ever been more important for our athletic program (and university) to root for our league mates OOC. It is critically important for our future that the Big 12 actually wins games.
 
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theshadow

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I can help thinking if OSU, KSU and UU were at the top of the league, it would help the perception since they been consistently good for a while.

There are also a lot of media people who refuse to admit they're wrong...ever.

The teams they picked to be in the bottom half (or quarter) of the Big 12 are now fighting for the conference title. That just can't be. Those teams simply can't be good now, because we didn't think they were good back in July.

And, conversely, the teams they picked to be at the top of the league are actually at the bottom. Well, we thought they were good in July and they're not, so I guess the whole league must be bad.

Another case of July opinions holding sway over November opinions, despite what happens on the field
 

CloniesForLife

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Sure, however three mid tier Big 10 teams played three of the best of the Big 12. Illinois beat Kansas by 6, Nebraska stomped Colorado, and ISU beat Iowa by 1. This really isn't the year for Big 12 fans to take shots at the Big 10.

Indiana hasn't played a tough schedule and in a normal year they'd be in a lot of trouble. Lucky for them the SEC imploded.

The good(bad) news for the Big 12 champ is they're very likely to have to play the second best Big 10 team for their first playoff game (whether it's as the 12 seed in the first round or as the 4 seed in the second round). They'll have the opportunity to prove how fraudulent the Big 10 was this year.
To be fair those were all road games for the Big12.
 

NorthCyd

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I don't think it can be overstated how much KU underperforming so badly to start the year and then ripping through the top teams in the conference hurt the reputation of this conference. The only team with a losing record to beat 3 top 25 teams in a row. It just looks bad for KU and the conference.
 

Nolaeer

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the problem for the big 12 is the cfp is for the elite teams. ones that distinguish themselves in conference play--that stand out from the pack. The BIG has 3 teams in PSU, OSU, and Oregon who meet that criteria. SMU and Miami also fit. Boise State is unbeaten in MW play.

The big 12 has no elite teams. one of its top teams has 3 losses, one in blowout form to a middle of the pack nebraska. There is really not one big 12 team that has a real shot at the national title this year. What big 12 team can overcome its roster defiencies and go toe to toe with Ohio State or even a down georgia?

For the sake of our staus, I hope the big 12 doesnt get left out, but this year we have no one but ourselves to blame. Letting a 3-6 kansas blitz our top 3 teams in as many weeks just killed the national perception that the big 12 has any good teams.
 

Erik4Cy

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I like letting computers decide. All data. An injury should never disqualify a team. This is the dumbest sport in determining a champion by far.
Agree. I hated letting computers decide when it was only 2 teams in the BCS days, but now that we have a 12 team playoff...

I'd like to see each power conference get one champion to send (however they want to determine it) and then the other 7-8 spots are determined by the computers.
 

legi

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the problem for the big 12 is the cfp is for the elite teams. ones that distinguish themselves in conference play--that stand out from the pack. The BIG has 3 teams in PSU, OSU, and Oregon who meet that criteria. SMU and Miami also fit. Boise State is unbeaten in MW play.

The big 12 has no elite teams. one of its top teams has 3 losses, one in blowout form to a middle of the pack nebraska. There is really not one big 12 team that has a real shot at the national title this year. What big 12 team can overcome its roster defiencies and go toe to toe with Ohio State or even a down georgia?

For the sake of our staus, I hope the big 12 doesnt get left out, but this year we have no one but ourselves to blame. Letting a 3-6 kansas blitz our top 3 teams in as many weeks just killed the national perception that the big 12 has any good teams.
Being undefeated in MW play shouldn’t mean much with respect to CFP. Zero chance BSU does that in B12. Probably would have a minimum of 2 losses if not more.

Also, SMU fits? BYU already beat them this season. If SMU fits, then BYU fits even more.

Also how is PSU elite? They haven’t beaten anyone significant. How do you determine they are elite? Based on what? Close game vs OSU? They also had close games vs MN and USC. They are not elite.
 

mj4cy

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I feel like the suits and pundits want to make sure everyone knows and realizes how much worse the Big12 is without a blueblood brand.....even if its not as much as people want to admit.
 

Cloned4Life

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I feel like the suits and pundits want to make sure everyone knows and realizes how much worse the Big12 is without a blueblood brand.....even if its not as much as people want to admit.
Yes the suits and pundits very much want the Big 12 destroyed and gone and irrelevant. There are basically 0 Big 12 “advocates” that have a voice loud enough to matter.
 

VeloClone

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IMO, Fans of Big XII teams should ALWAYS root for the other Big XII teams OOC. It makes a difference, as we are seeing this year. Save the schaudenfreude for conference games. If all 16 Big XII teams were 3-0 this year OOC, the Big XII would NOT have a perception problem. Just my onion.
It would help, but there is always going to be that bias by so much of the media. I'm pretty sure the SEC tagline "it just means more" was coined by ESPN...
 

Die4Cy

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Wow. Can’t say I disagree with anything he says.


Kleiman is right.

The committee has proven a bias toward overall record and dismissing other metrics of quality. The Big 12 would be rational to weaken everyone's OOC schedules or go to 8 games in order to improve the conference win percentage.

This is entirely the committee's fault. They are fully empowered to penalize teams that try and schedule themselves into the CFP but then turn around and reward them for doing it. This was the entire argument for why a CFP committee was to exist in the first place, but it turns out it was just to ensure ESPN's biggest brands get a thumb on the scale.
 

Die4Cy

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Me: Sitting by watching huge media companies turn America's greatest sport into some kind of reality show where they know what most of the outcomes will be and just getting disillusioned by the whole thing.
 

CYdTracked

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Unfortunately until we see how the Big 12 teams fair in their bowl games it's either going to justify the bias or prove there was a bias. There have been years the Big 10 has just bombed in bowl games and finally people admit maybe the league was over-rated a bit that year. It's just hard to judge how good or bad teams in a conference are in a given year because when you play essentially the same familiar programs on a yearly basis and your only non-conference comparisons are the first 3 games of the year a lot happens between the non-conference and bowl games with development and some teams playing better as the season progresses.

I do think there are some schools in the Big 12 that could be sleeping giants in the Big 12 in upcoming years once they have a few recruiting cycles being part of a bigger conference to help them. UCF has a huge enrollment of nearly 70k so you wonder if that large alumni base will also keep them competitive financially. BYU and Utah already were competitive in football coming in and the 2 Arizona teams and Cincy have been at times too. I have no doubt that it will be a strong conference in basketball but I think some of these new schools added to the Big 12 could take a big step forward now that they are in a conference with more revenue and a bigger stage to play on than they were offering recruits before.
 

cyclone1209

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I'm not going to discuss Big Ten and SEC because I think the quality at the top is such that most of those teams would be in the Big 12 CCG or maybe even with 0 or 1 losses. I'm more fascinated by the how both the AP and committee (their rankings are similar) seem to have a love affair with not only the ACC, but also the American and MWC over the Big 12.

I'll update this to the comittee when it comes out but here are the contenders from ACC/B12/AAC/MWC in latest AP poll:
8 - Miami (1 loss in conference)
9 - SMU (1 loss at home to #19 Big 12 team)
11- Boise St (1 loss to #1 team)
12 - Clemson (2 loss)
14 - ASU (beat Boise St common opponent by 40 points more)
17 - ISU (2 loss)
18 - Tulane (2 loss, one to Big 12)
19 - BYU (2 loss, road win over #9 ACC team)
21 - UNLV (2 loss)
23 - Colorado (3 loss)
25 - Army (1 loss)
26 - KSU (3 loss)
27 - Memphis (2 loss)
28 - Syracuse (3 loss)
29 - Louisville (4 loss)
31 - Duke (3 loss)
35 - GTech (4 loss)

Now here are where those teams rank in the Massey composite of dozens of computer models. The composite ranking itself is pretty great, the only huge flaw is it really loves Ohio State to the point you need to flip Ohio State and Oregon. It's conference objective, doesn't care who is in what league.

Green shows where AP/CFP is boosting someone, red shows where they are dragging them down

8 - Miami
9 - SMU
14 - Clemson 2 lower than AP/CFP
15 - ISU 2 higher than AP/CFP
16 - BYU 3 higher than AP/CFP
17 - Boise St 6 lower than AP/CFP
19 - KSU 7 higher than AP/CFP
20 - ASU 6 lower than AP/CFP
21 - Louisville 8 higher than AP/CFP
22 - Tulane 4 lower than AP/CFP
23 - Colorado
29 - UNLV 8 lower than AP/CFP
31 - Army 6 lower than AP/CFP
33 - Baylor (not even getting votes in AP but ahead of ACC schools that are)
35 - GTech
36 - Duke 5 lower than AP
37 - Kansas (not even getting votes in AP but ahead of an ACC schools that is)
38 - Syracuse 10 lower than AP

Net:
Big 12: -6, and two teams that aren't getting AP votes that are just as good as ACC teams that are, those two don't even count toward that number but could.

ACC: +9, the top three are ranked somewhat similar but "others with votes" is loaded with ACC teams that shouldn't be ranked. Louisville actually one of the most undervalued teams, no surprise they are headed to Big 12 soon.

MWC/AAC contenders: +24, across the board they're all overrated, some deserve top 25 but nearly all of them higher than they should be getting preference Big 12 is not getting.


Blast away at how unscientific this is but it's been getting worse as the season goes on.
All good data points.

I would love to see where ISU football is ranked after two wins (Kansas State and Big 12 Conf. Championship). One would think that would move us up several spots. Those would be two very strong wins by the statistics of it.
 
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