***2025 NFL Season***
- Thread starter BigJCy
- Start date
Trevor Lawrence might be the most overrated QB in the NFL. He consistently gets discussed as a top tier QB but really hasn't done much of anything at this point.
If he doesn't start protecting himself better when he runs, he won't last very long. He gets hit hard a lot.
Whole lot of guaranteed dollars went to several QBs who have been bad, their teams have been bad, or who have already gotten hurt.
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This is certainly the case, but the overriding theme remains in the NFL, and people seem to not notice it.
The talking heads always seem to see these games and for the last couple years it's been the same type of questions. "what's wrong with Hurts and the Eagles, Burrow and the Bengals, Lawrence and the Jags, Dak and the Cowboys, Herbert and the Chargers? on and on and on.
Answer - their QBs are on franchise QB deals, and they aren't Mahomes. Winning on a rookie deal and the roster around a rookie deal is a completely different situation than winning with the roster that comes with a $50+M cap hit. Allen and Jackson have the ability to maybe get it done, but they haven't broken through yet.
Teams with good supporting rosters and bargain-bin QB cap hits like the Vikings and Steelers are in good shape. The 49ers need some of these bloated salary veterans to A) actually play and B) actually perform. The Lions have a really nice team, but the biggest thing they have going for them is being in the NFC.
Thing is, most of those franchise QB deals haven't entered their big cap hit phase yet. Many still have a reasonable cap hits for this year and next before they begin ballooning next year, or in Dak's case, exploding. Even KC is going to have to start working on renegotiating Mahomes deal as they been can kicking some dollars the last couple of years.
The Lions got good as soon as they were able to unload Stafford’s terrible contract.
I still contend that you’re better off paying the defense and skill players. They will make a mediocre QB look all pro. And if that mediocre QB wants to get paid like a top QB after seeing some success, let them go and find the next one. As long as you have the guys around him, the next one will shine too.
Look at Purdy for example. He doesn’t have the greatest arm or can scramble to make a play. He’s solid, but he uses the weapons that surround him to make plays. That’s why he’s been able to have so much early success. If I were him, I’d be talking about getting a mid-tier contract to make sure that SF can afford to replace McCaffrey and Debo. Cause otherwise, he’s going to struggle without those weapons around him. Yes, $50-60m/year may be possible. But what if you can get $40m and a WR that’ll help you win games and championships?
Also while skill positions get the headlines good teams win with solid play on both the OL and DL.
Yes, and there are always some examples where the team rearranges their cap hits to make one big push and pay for it later. That worked for the Rams but A) they are an exception and B) they have ELITE drafting and personnel evaluation so they haven't completely crashed and burned when the cap hits came due.
The 49ers are a success because they have been getting Pro Bowl QB play for 6 figures. There is now nothing else special about them. They have very good personnel at all position groups, but every position group is now getting paid like they are elite with the exception of the QB. That's going to change.
The reality of the NFL is that you can't pay everyone. If you are going to succeed some great players that have earned big contracts need to go get those contracts with somebody else. The only reason they haven't had to face this reality yet is Purdy. That changes starting next year.
And I would say the QB contract negotiation isn't as simple as a tradeoff of winning vs. money. First, a franchise QB is the most marketable athlete in the US. Winning makes you more marketable. Second, if a team is smart and a QB forgoes maxing out their contract, they get more weapons and better OL, possibly extending their career, or at least improving the value of the NEXT contract.
Brady was penny foolish and pound-wise. He gave the Pats a hometown discount most of those years, won a **** load of games and super bowls, played until he was 75 years old, and is still one of the most marketable athletes in the US. Maybe all that happens if Brady maxes out and takes his market value every year. Based on how all the rest of the NFL has worked in the past 20 years, I highly doubt it.
It isn't about Purdy "sacrificing for the team." It's Purdy making a business decision.
While true, SF has the most available cap space of any team this season at just under $57M. So theoretically SF could had afforded to pay for a $50M QB this season
But the future cap space doesn't look great for SF, not even considering resigning Purdy. In 2027, Trent Williams is slated to have a $29M cap hit, McCaffery $27M cap it, Aiyuk $42M cap hit. and Bosa with a $52M cap hit. Those four players alone will have a combined $150M in cap hit. Purdy's deal will likely be back loaded.
100% correct. The fallacy to me is this “you NEED a QB to win in the NFL”.
You need a good QB, but you don’t need a franchise QB. Because there’s only ever one or two of those a decade (in the last 20 years, there’s been maybe 4 or 5 of those: Brady, Manning, Mahomes, and maybe Rodgers, Brees).
So if you get one of those, then yes, pay them because they elevate your team. But you can’t just pay a QB $60M a year and make them a franchise QB. Rather than paying a Prescott or Burrow or Watson or Wilson or Herbert 25% of the cap, build your team through D or O-Line and playmakers.
The Ravens won a SB that way, the Broncos won with a severely depleted Manning, the Giants won 2 that way, etc.
I doubt teams ever get to this point, but if they were realistic the end of the rookie contract question isn't "is he a franchise QB?" The real question is whether or not he's on track to be a hall of famer. If the answer is no, then you should probably let him walk and start over. You don't win Super Bowls with franchise QBs. You win Super Bowls with Mahomes, Brady and really good QBs on rookie deals. Exceptions are rare (i.e. the cap shuffle with Stafford).
I'm curious to see what happens in GB. On one hand I think Love is in the category of good QB, possibly franchise QB, but not likely a great QB. The flipside to that is I think they have the single best passing game concept guy in the league in LaFleur. Guys get wide ass open so often in that offense, and I have no idea how. So I think they can possibly win big, but I don't think they need Love and that cap hit to do so. They have drafted pretty well, so they have some solid guys on cheap deals.
