Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[BMWallace]

IF the Big 10 or SEC are open to adding the top schools from the ACC, I would not be surprised if there were rumblings of Kansas also being poached off. From a brand perspective, Kansas is the largest piece left in the Big 12, especially now that they are competent and competitive in football, and are completing overdue stadium upgrades.

 

[Al_4_State]

It's the old Algebra 1 mixture problem. You're adding a high % solution to the overall mixture, increasing the % of the entire mixture.

I think the ACC and Big12 are currently on about the same $/team for TV money. But since Clemson & FSU are the big brands, they would certainly be worth more than the average, so would bring the avg UP for the Big12. Esp because the range from top to bottom in the ACC is wider than in the Big12.

Swagging some numbers... I get this adds something like $5M per team overall to the Big12. And you stick a knife in the ACC as well. So that's great. But why would FSU & Clemson jump for $5M additional, when they want $20-30M additional?

Unequal revenue sharing? I don't think the Big12 members would accept it, knowing what it has done in the past. Maybe that's where PE comes in, they put up a bunch of money to buy FSU & Clemson, and take a chunk of the upper on the next TV contract. As long as you aren't giving up too much future money (or making it mostly a bet on the increase for the PE) it could make sense. Lots of ifs and buts to be sure...

It would require them not having a $20-30M option.

 

[Al_4_State]

IF the Big 10 or SEC are open to adding the top schools from the ACC, I would not be surprised if there were rumblings of Kansas also being poached off. From a brand perspective, Kansas is the largest piece left in the Big 12, especially now that they are competent and competitive in football, and are completing overdue stadium upgrades.

People try to speak this into existence, but the Big 10 and SEC have had a million opportunities to add Kansas and have never even gotten close to doing it. Being decent in football for a couple years isn't going to change that calculus.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

People try to speak this into existence, but the Big 10 and SEC have had a million opportunities to add Kansas and have never even gotten close to doing it. Being decent in football for a couple years isn't going to change that calculus.

No way Kansas is worth $70ishM in value. Which is what they’d have to be at this point to prevent dilution in the B10 and SEC. There’s not many schools out there that are, potentially including Clemson and Florida State

 

[mj4cy]

Agree with you. But “conferences” are just groups of institutions collectively negotiating for media rights at this point. It’s a shame

I've always joked it'll turn into 3 mega conferences, some new entity will offer billions to grab rights to all three, then lump them all together under one umbrella and split into divisions...basically NFL lite

 

[Nolaeer]

No way the BIG takes Stanford. They barely took oregon and washington. The only path Stanford has to the big--at a reduced rate-is if Notre Dame, who loves Stanford, agrees to join if Stanford gets an invite.

 

[ScottyP]

I'm sure West Virginia would be ecstatic if Pitt were able to join.

 

[isucy86]

So we will play these teams once in ten years? at what point do you just split to two divisions of 10

Why is it important to regularly play conference members that are 1500 miles away? I would rather play a core group of 4 to 6 close-by rivals every year in football. Maybe that includes the historical Big 8 teams or is a blend of some old Big 8 + Cincy/Louisville. If Iowa State plays ASU, Utah, UCF, WVU, etc only 2-3 times over a decade- I'm fine with that.

Feel the same in hoops. I wouldn't lose sleep if the Clones didn't play Houston or Arizona every year. It would give a possible match-up in the Big12 Conference Tournament a little more mystique.

It's OK if a conference is a consolidated mechanism to negotiate TV media rights and other revenue sources.

 

[exCyDing]

It's the old Algebra 1 mixture problem. You're adding a high % solution to the overall mixture, increasing the % of the entire mixture.

I think the ACC and Big12 are currently on about the same $/team for TV money. But since Clemson & FSU are the big brands, they would certainly be worth more than the average, so would bring the avg UP for the Big12. Esp because the range from top to bottom in the ACC is wider than in the Big12.

Swagging some numbers... I get this adds something like $5M per team overall to the Big12. And you stick a knife in the ACC as well. So that's great. But why would FSU & Clemson jump for $5M additional, when they want $20-30M additional?

There's two parts. First is what you pointed out - the ACC and B12 are neck and neck right now, but adding FSU and Clemson to the B12 increases the value there. Not as much as FSU and Clemson are hoping to get, but more none the less. Maybe the rest of the B12 gets a bump too and then everyone wins (except, you know, the rest of the ACC).

Second, the B12's deal is up after 2030-31. Assuming ESPN picks up the option on the ACC, they're not back at the table until 2036. That gives the B12 five years on the next deal, and if you're expecting media deals to keep growing every cycle, that could prove to be a sizable amount of money. Still not as much as they want, but more than they'd get otherwise, and they'll have an easier path to the CFP than they would in either the B10 or SEC.

 

[Sigmapolis]

As did Tulane. Tulane, which views itself as an academic institution, didn't fancy having scholar athletes who couldn't read or write on campus. that was what it took to compete in the sec at that time.

Historical aside here, but there was an attempt in the 1950s and 1960s to organize the southern private schools with 1.) quality academics and 2.) good sports but not so good they were willing to make the various compromising to academic standards (well "standards") of the public SEC schools.

It was to be the "Southern Ivy" Conference or the "Magnolia" Conference in the regional-equivalent of the Ivy League from the Northeast for the Southeast and maybe out into eastern Texas.

Something like...

Duke
Emory
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Rice
SMU
Tulane
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Washington and Lee

It never happened, obviously, because the various constituents weren't willing to abandon their spots in the ACC (Duke and its rivalry with UNC), SEC (Vanderbilt), and SWC (the Texas schools).

 

[isucy86]

No way the BIG takes Stanford. They barely took oregon and washington. The only path Stanford has to the big--at a reduced rate-is if Notre Dame, who loves Stanford, agrees to join if Stanford gets an invite.

The Big10 was slow to take Oregon & Washington because they were already near the finish line of their TV deal when they added USC & UCLA in early summer 2022.

Adding Stanford is a lot easier if like you mention they are partnered with an elite value school like ND. The combined media value of the 2 schools is probably accretive for existing Big10 schools. Plus if Stanford is part of the initial Big10 media rights negotiations in 2030, then the baseline for the next deal is established.

Aka the current core media deal of $1B annually for each of 16 schools (excl OR/WA) is $62.5M annually. In 2030 the Big10's negotiation launching point will be: 20 teams x $62.5M x multiplier (inflation, media market, etc.). The Big10 should have some leverage because they can pit their current media partners (CBS/NBC) against new interests.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

People try to speak this into existence, but the Big 10 and SEC have had a million opportunities to add Kansas and have never even gotten close to doing it. Being decent in football for a couple years isn't going to change that calculus.

If either the B10 or SEC needs one more school to fill out the league, I would think Kansas would be at the top of the list. Say the B10 takes UNC, UVA and ND, taking another west coast school like Cal or Stanford puts them at an uneven number on the west coast. I could see them either going to Miami, G. Tech or Kansas for that final school.
No one knows how difficult it would be for Kansas or any other school to get out of the GOR of the B12, but it makes more sense to take them then another western school.

 

[Al_4_State]

If either the B10 or SEC needs one more school to fill out the league, I would think Kansas would be at the top of the list. Say the B10 takes UNC, UVA and ND, taking another west coast school like Cal or Stanford puts them at an uneven number on the west coast. I could see them either going to Miami, G. Tech or Kansas for that final school.
No one knows how difficult it would be for Kansas or any other school to get out of the GOR of the B12, but it makes more sense to take them then another western school.

I think they would take both Miami and GA Tech for academics, market, and recruiting grounds over Kansas.

Kansas makes more sense than any current Big 12 school, but I really don't think they want any current Big 12 schools. They would have them if they did.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I think they would take both Miami and GA Tech for academics, market, and recruiting grounds over Kansas.

Kansas makes more sense than any current Big 12 school, but I really don't think they want any current Big 12 schools. They would have them if they did.

I agree, but just pointing out that Kansas would not be a totally out of the question for a league that wants to build up a better BB resume. Academically and bringing in more revenue either Miami or GT would be better choices, but the league did bring in Nebraska to upgrade their football product, why not take KU to do the same for BB. We are all aware the Nebraska move backfired on the league, but they are still there.

 

[Cydkar]

It’s not ALL smoke. The FSU/Clemson thing very well might be them posturing for leverage. But there are certainly a ton of back channel conversations happening between the big 12 and the schools that are not obvious SEC or Big 10 targets.

I don't think anyone would argue this. "Conversations" is nearly an infinity broad term.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

I think they would take both Miami and GA Tech for academics, market, and recruiting grounds over Kansas.

Kansas makes more sense than any current Big 12 school, but I really don't think they want any current Big 12 schools. They would have them if they did.

Agreed. After taking NU, I doubt they'd be interested in KU.

 

[trajanJ]

I agree, but just pointing out that Kansas would not be a totally out of the question for a league that wants to build up a better BB resume. Academically and bringing in more revenue either Miami or GT would be better choices, but the league did bring in Nebraska to upgrade their football product, why not take KU to do the same for BB. We are all aware the Nebraska move backfired on the league, but they are still there.

Miami & GT have no fans. Even in their own cities they are outnumbered by other schools from their state. I think the Big 12 has the best commissioner and he's going to figure out ways for the schools to make some of their own money. I think KU is exactly where they want to be. The Big 12 could end up being the most competitive conference while the other 2 will have just a few schools dominate. It's is already the best basketball conference and they just added Arizona and could possibly add Duke in the future.

 

[Big_Sill]

Just my $0.02 - if it were smoke, I don’t think Scheer would be reporting it.

My tin foil hat theory is that the sports tv market bubble is getting close to bursting and the Big 10 and SEC might be getting too bloated while the Big 12 is still sitting at the table.

I could see Big 12 adding 4, Big 10 panicking and adding two, and the SEC standing pat because they can go get whoever they want whenever they want.

Maybe, Scheer would also be an accessible effective person to use if you wanted to plant a smoke screen.

 

[HouClone]

I heard Sankey has felt bad about stabbing Bowlsby and the Big 12 in the back that he doesn't want any additional Big 12 schools such as Kansas.

Sorry, a little Monday humor. Sankey will gladly take a bigger knife to the Big 12.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

Why is it important to regularly play conference members that are 1500 miles away? I would rather play a core group of 4 to 6 close-by rivals every year in football. Maybe that includes the historical Big 8 teams or is a blend of some old Big 8 + Cincy/Louisville. If Iowa State plays ASU, Utah, UCF, WVU, etc only 2-3 times over a decade- I'm fine with that.

Feel the same in hoops. I wouldn't lose sleep if the Clones didn't play Houston or Arizona every year. It would give a possible match-up in the Big12 Conference Tournament a little more mystique.

It's OK if a conference is a consolidated mechanism to negotiate TV media rights and other revenue sources.

I agree. My top choice would be to go back to the Big 8 + some interesting non-con games but we all know that isn't happening. If not that, I'd rather be a bigger conference with some variety plus core rivals.

I get there are some positives to a 10-team round robin but it was the exact same schedule every year. I'm really excited about the occasional trip to Arizona, Colorado, or Florida. Plus it pays to tap into media markets all across the country.