Retirement Targets

[bos]

Actually down 7.2% June '22. I wish they were more transparent on how their assets are valued.

Definitely noticed a turn the last year or so but everything else is shifting too. Hang in there. Since 2019 I’m seeing a return of 9%. Their support is great, you may want to send them a note and see if they have an answer to your concern. Who knows, maybe there is a tool I haven’t seen yet. I just reached their pro tier some months back. Opened up some options I haven’t explored yet too.

 

[ianoconnor]

Actually down 7.2% June '22. I wish they were more transparent on how their assets are valued.

Pretty common in CRE for the valuations to lag. I'm sure they are essentially just applying a market cap rate to each asset. Down that amount the past year seems pretty reasonable, if not a bit low actually. I think values are probably down 10-15% since that peak.

 

[cyfan92]

Public REIT's are getting HAMMERED and have been since 2022. Private valuations have A LOT of downside with limited upside IMO. NAV's in private markets are being propped up by 4%-5% exit cap rates and 5%-7% annual NOI growth that is impossible to sustain in an economic downturn.

However, the firms who lead these valuation efforts are likely overly hesitant to drop valuations to real world values since that may lead to them losing the client, leading to loss of comp and jobs.

 

[cyfan92]

If your REIT fund can't cover distributions from AFFO.. GET OUT NOW

 

[SCNCY]

If your REIT fund can't cover distributions from AFFO.. GET OUT NOW

What does AFFO stand for?

 

[cyfan92]

What does AFFO stand for?

Adjusted Funds From Operations

How to Assess a REITS Using Funds from Operations (FFO/AFFO)

Funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) are superior predictors of REIT performance. Find out how to use FFO and AFFO to value REITs.

www.investopedia.com

 

[cyfan92]

 

[yowza]

The bull is back for now.

 

[SCarolinaCy]

No doubt. I would say from experience that a smooth 40 year work trajectory is a long shot.

Give early until it hurts. Let that time value of money work its magic. Then when **** happens a catch-up plan is more workable

Just the view from my part of the world.

I bought my first rental property at age 26, after my military obligation, just as I began working. Last layoff was in 2008. Never thought about getting another job. You will never have enuf money. Always have an exit plan.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

I have heard in the past you should have 25x your spending level but I have not heard it suggested you should have 25x your income. That seems extremely challenging to achieve.

Been thinking about this lately. I imagine the small amount of election talk and/or inflation concerns have stirred this up.

It seems to me those at or near retirement are very protective of social security. (Don’t touch it, it’s mine, so paid into it, etc.). The vibe I get from most millennials is that we don’t even think about social security, the fact that we have to pay in, or are really planning on getting anything out of it. Curious as to whether others feel they see the same opinions…and also interested as to how the Gen Xers view this.

Again, kind of feel millennials mostly take the stance that we have to save 25x annual cost of living…

Thanks!

 

[DSMCy]

Been thinking about this lately. I imagine the small amount of election talk and/or inflation concerns have stirred this up.

It seems to me those at or near retirement are very protective of social security. (Don’t touch it, it’s mine, so paid into it, etc.). The vibe I get from most millennials is that we don’t even think about social security, the fact that we have to pay in, or are really planning on getting anything out of it. Curious as to whether others feel they see the same opinions…and also interested as to how the Gen Xers view this.

Again, kind of feel millennials mostly take the stance that we have to save 25x annual cost of living…

Thanks!

I'm not expecting any SS in retirement. All of my retirement projections include only 401K and IRAs that I contribute to.

 

[JP4CY]

I'm not expecting any SS in retirement. All of my retirement projections include only 401K and IRAs that I contribute to.

Same. My approach is to not factor in any SS.

 

[cycloneG]

I'm not expecting any SS in retirement. All of my retirement projections include only 401K and IRAs that I contribute to.

Same here. I'm decades away from retirement but I don't expect SS to be around when I retire.

 

[dmclone]

I'd like to share my dumb move of the year so it doesn't hit anyone else.

Since CD's have been pretty much worthless my whole life, I didn't have any experience with purchasing them. At the start of the year, I had just a little bit of money laying around not doing anything so I thought I would buy a CD. I saw that my bank had a 5 year CD for 4.5% and thought I would buy one just to get a taste.

Yesterday, I was doing research on a CD ladders at another institution and I noticed a filter for "callable". I immediately went back to my original CD and saw that I had chosen a callable CD. I then went to Bogleheads and searched "callable" and quickly figured out I'm an idiot.

So in summary, if rates go down any time over the next 5 years they can just cancel the contract. Like I said, it's not a lot of money, and I'm not going to lose money, but it was really stupid on my part.

 

[drmwevr08]

I just figured out that I've got 12 years left as long as I stay in AZ. Not sure what the money situation will actually be, but I'd reach the minimum retirement age+yos then. I'll be 60.

 

[CycloneNorth]

Been thinking about this lately. I imagine the small amount of election talk and/or inflation concerns have stirred this up.

It seems to me those at or near retirement are very protective of social security. (Don’t touch it, it’s mine, so paid into it, etc.). The vibe I get from most millennials is that we don’t even think about social security, the fact that we have to pay in, or are really planning on getting anything out of it. Curious as to whether others feel they see the same opinions…and also interested as to how the Gen Xers view this.

Again, kind of feel millennials mostly take the stance that we have to save 25x annual cost of living…

Thanks!

I'm 33 and am assuming I won't be seeing any social security in retirement. Roth IRAs, 401K, and a pension (with healthcare) for us.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I can start drawing SS at the end of this year, when we were young, we thought it would not be there for us also, but it's there for us. SS is too popular a program and too many depend on it to get by for the Republicans to just do away with it. They have opposed it since FDR signed it into law, just like they oppose Medicare and Medicaid, because it takes money away from those that will never need it and helps those that do. Greedy bastards, but that is beside the point.

Each side will have to give something up, as there is no way politically that either party can allow SS to go under. I would guess that the limit on the top will rise to say $200,000 before you stop paying into the system and the age at which can start drawing it will be pushed out to 70 or so.

If they would take the cap off it would solve everything, but the right refuses to even consider the idea, just like they refused to fix the problem that everyone knew was coming decades ago.

 

[KnappShack]

I'm not expecting any SS in retirement. All of my retirement projections include only 401K and IRAs that I contribute to.

Which should piss all of us off.

 

[BirdOfWar]

I'm not expecting any SS in retirement. All of my retirement projections include only 401K and IRAs that I contribute to.

I don't factor SS into my projections, but I do run a statement each year to understand how much we are projected to receive each year.

 

[clonechemist]

I can start drawing SS at the end of this year, when we were young, we thought it would not be there for us also, but it's there for us. SS is too popular a program and too many depend on it to get by for the Republicans to just do away with it. They have opposed it since FDR signed it into law, just like they oppose Medicare and Medicaid, because it takes money away from those that will never need it and helps those that do. Greedy bastards, but that is beside the point.

Each side will have to give something up, as there is no way politically that either party can allow SS to go under. I would guess that the limit on the top will rise to say $200,000 before you stop paying into the system and the age at which can start drawing it will be pushed out to 70 or so.

If they would take the cap off it would solve everything, but the right refuses to even consider the idea, just like they refused to fix the problem that everyone knew was coming decades ago.

Wife and I have 25-30 years before we retire. I absolutely expect us to get SOMETHING out of SS, but not confident in banking on any specific number until we’re less than 5 years out.

I worry that low expectations for SS among younger people will make it easier for politicians to erode the program over time. To me, raising the retirement age any higher is absolutely a non-starter. Should factory workers and tradespeople be doing physical labor until they’re 70? Hell no. Meanwhile, firefighters and police out here often get a significant pension after 20 years of service, often in the low 40s for age.