Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[SolterraCyclone]

The trouble is that it probably isn't financial suicide for them. I think Fox & ESPN would be happy to pay up for the big brands in a premier league.

Now long term, maybe it isn't sustainable due to alienating a ton of viewers. But it still might be sufficiently profitable even at a lower base of viewers, with less mouths to feed.

As I’ve mentioned before, I do think we’re headed towards a Super League within 10 years, and this is the thought process on why.

I believe there’s ways to prevent it, but the idea that “brands will not want to lose that much” or “they’ll alienate too many viewers” aren’t two of the ways.

The brands don’t make decisions based on the thought process that they don’t want to be the punching bags of the league. Because none of them believe they’ll be the punching bags.

The networks/schools won’t make decisions based on the idea they’ll alienate too many fans and it’s not sustainable. If the networks/schools can make more money/increase profitability in the short-term, that’s what they’ll care about and how they’ll make their strategic decision.

The ways to prevent a Super League is to make it more financially viable for the powers that be to keep the conference setup as is, rather than create a Premier League.

The inflection points will be the CFP deal for 2026 and beyond as well as 2031ish when the Big 10 and Big 12 deals come up for negotiation again.

I’m definitely more concerned now after hearing Marchand and Ourand do not believe the CFP deal will be as big as some are forecasting. That’s not good news for us.

 

[MugNight]

The trouble is that it probably isn't financial suicide for them. I think Fox & ESPN would be happy to pay up for the big brands in a premier league.

Now long term, maybe it isn't sustainable due to alienating a ton of viewers. But it still might be sufficiently profitable even at a lower base of viewers, with less mouths to feed.

“Don’t let long term thinking get in the way of short term profits.” I think you’re spot on.

Unfortunately I don’t think these media giants have the best interest of the sport at the top of their priority list. They’re businesses with stakeholders and executives who are driven by profit. They’re not thinking about the ones potentially left behind.

Shoot, I’d bet most of the conference leaders and string pullers at FOX and ESPN will be in new jobs in a decade or less. This mess is for the next guys to clean up, may as well get ours now.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I like a cap of 3 out of 12 per conference. This is different than the NCAA basketball tourny. The 4th best team, or worse, in any conference doesn't deserve to play for a football national championship. I really don't think the 3rd place team deserves to either, but I'll throw them a bone due to the larger conferences being created.

I agree. If there is 5 automatic champion qualifiers, that leaves 7 bids, 6 of which would be taken up by 2-4 in the Big 10 and SEC, leaving only one other opening. With 6 automatics, there would be 4 SEC, 4 Big 10, and 4 other conference champions, which would be a joke.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

I agree. If there is 5 automatic champion qualifiers, that leaves 7 bids, 6 of which would be taken up by 2-4 in the Big 10 and SEC, leaving only one other opening. With 6 automatics, there would be 4 SEC, 4 Big 10, and 4 other conference champions, which would be a joke.

IF we can get SEC/B10 to agree to this model, I don’t think 6 of the at large spots will be taken by B10/SEC. That would mean you’d have the 4th and 5th place teams from those conferences in the playoffs.

I could see maybe the 4th place team in some cases (like LSU last year). But the 5th-place team from the SEC last year was 8-4 Miss St. The 4th place team in the B10 was 7-5 Maryland/Purdue. Even with the P12 teams joining the B10, I don’t see the committee taking 4 or 5-loss teams over a 1 or 2 loss ACC/B12 team, AS LONG AS the ACC/B12 can be competitive in the playoff games(this is a must!) The tv ratings wouldn’t be as good for a mediocre B10/SEC team (especially if it’s a brand like Purdue/Miss St) versus a good B12/ACC team

 

[LivntheCyLife]

My guess is the Big10 and SEC are arguing that, based on the media deals they have gotten, the total media value of the CFP playoff is higher with the best overall teams rather than on autobids. Whoever buys the rights to the playoffs in 2026 and beyond will pay more for the best teams overall and that means we can distribute more overall (every conference will get a baseline to get everyone to agree and then more based on appearances).

While it would maximize profits now, I think that would end up declining interest in CFB overall. As more and more schools get left out, less interest overall will mean less eyeballs which will mean less revenue for media deals in the future.

If I'm ESPN, I'd get be begging them to include more and more autobids for more conferences. The best case for them isn't more interest in the SEC, its more interest in the AAC and MACtion. A rising tide raises all ships. Yeah, they might make less now but it sets up for a better stabile future.

It's why horror movies are always going to be made. Spend $1mil on a movie, make $10mil opening weekend, sell it to a streamer and boom easy money. Which you can then spend on your bigger movies to chase the bigger profits. (Ok this analogy isn't perfect since we haven't seen a Dial of Destiny type flop in the CFB media deal yet but it's coming)

I personally think some of you are way overvaluing the amount of viewers/interest the MAC or AAC fanbases could bring. They’ve never had a realistic chance at a national championship and their fans don’t expect it. And as a Big 12 fan, does the amount of MAC/AAC teams really drive your interest?

TV wants some Cinderella stories. But the truth is, they want it to be Big 12/ACC.

I feel somewhat bad about it but the Big 12/ACC need to be looking out for their interests rather than saving some ideal of all of FBS (which has never existed).

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I personally think some of you are way overvaluing the amount of viewers/interest the MAC or AAC fanbases could bring. They’ve never had a realistic chance at a national championship and their fans don’t expect it. And as a Big 12 fan, does the amount of MAC/AAC teams really drive your interest?

TV wants some Cinderella stories. But the truth is, they want it to be Big 12/ACC.

I feel somewhat bad about it but the Big 12/ACC need to be looking out for their interests rather than saving some ideal of all of FBS (which has never existed).

This is 100% correct. I would imagine that one of the P2 demands would be some serious gatekeeping to allow a G5 program to get in. Also I’m assuming they want the PAC autobid gone.

The P2 has to be extra careful though as the thing that makes CFB awesome is that every game matters. If you start getting to a point where OSU can get into the playoff losing the 3 hardest games on their schedule then it makes watching the regular season games less of must watch viewing.

 

[CydeofFries]

I personally think some of you are way overvaluing the amount of viewers/interest the MAC or AAC fanbases could bring. They’ve never had a realistic chance at a national championship and their fans don’t expect it. And as a Big 12 fan, does the amount of MAC/AAC teams really drive your interest?

TV wants some Cinderella stories. But the truth is, they want it to be Big 12/ACC.

I feel somewhat bad about it but the Big 12/ACC need to be looking out for their interests rather than saving some ideal of all of FBS (which has never existed).

No you are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying they will bring more interest or money to the playoff.

I'm saying by including them in the playoff, their regular season games will be worth that much more for advertisers and the networks that hold their media rights. That's why I said ESPN should be banging the table trying to get that done. Bringing in more for those games will help everything else.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

This is 100% correct. I would imagine that one of the P2 demands would be some serious gatekeeping to allow a G5 program to get in. Also I’m assuming they want the PAC autobid gone.

The P2 has to be extra careful though as the thing that makes CFB awesome is that every game matters. If you start getting to a point where OSU can get into the playoff losing the 3 hardest games on their schedule then it makes watching the regular season games less of must watch viewing.

Yeah, the NCAA basketball tournament is awesome but the regular season suffers somewhat. How this 12 team playoff gets set up is incredibly important and there's several different ways to get it wrong.

 

[LivntheCyLife]

No you are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying they will bring more interest or money to the playoff.

I'm saying by including them in the playoff, their regular season games will be worth that much more for advertisers and the networks that hold their media rights. That's why I said ESPN should be banging the table trying to get that done. Bringing in more for those games will help everything else.

Sorry, I don't see it. Are that many people going to watch a MAC game because it determines which team gets to be the first round sacrifice? How much do people tune into watch which small conference basketball team will make the NCAA tourney? It probably increases the value of the conference championship a little but I think the value beyond that is very small.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Posted it before, I'll post it again.

In a 12 team playoff, they will change it so that in most years they get the outcome TV wants... which is:

3 SEC
3 Big 10
ND
1 or 2 ACC
1 Big 12
1 G 5 (keep some viewership interest throughout the year)
1 or 2 others (could include a 4th SEC and or big 10)

This is why OuT (mostly OU) aren't scared of SEC losses, and has been coming the whole time. Big12 and ACC won't have much say.

Until schedules are clarified, and every team is playing 10 P5 schools during the regular season, it's going to be hard to determine whether or not the SEC or Big Easy will have enough quality teams to get more than 3 into the playoff every year. Currently a member of each conference can basically schedule themselves to 3 to 4 almost guaranteed wins every season, before a conference game has been played.
Is a 10-win team like Minnesota was the few years ago worthy of a playoff spot when they played 3 cupcakes during the preseason, only quality win was Wisconsin and did not win the division?

Either throw in a SOS component or just make a rule to qualify for the playoff you must play 10 P5 teams during the regular season.

 

[FarminCy]

These last couple of pages and topics solidify why my interest in college football gets less and less by the year.

 

[HFCS]

Posted it before, I'll post it again.

In a 12 team playoff, they will change it so that in most years they get the outcome TV wants... which is:

3 SEC
3 Big 10
ND
1 or 2 ACC
1 Big 12
1 G 5 (keep some viewership interest throughout the year)
1 or 2 others (could include a 4th SEC and or big 10)

This is why OuT (mostly OU) aren't scared of SEC losses, and has been coming the whole time. Big12 and ACC won't have much say.

Oregon/Wash/USC could change the calculus a little for Big Ten. I still don't think they'll automatically be worthy of 3/12 every year but they will a lot of years now

Outside of Ohio State the previous Big Ten really hadn't done anything Baylor/TCU/OKSt haven't done as well or better for the past decade. Adding USC/Washington/Oregon could be pretty huge for their depth if those programs thrive. This is not adding Maryland, Rutgers and crappy Nebraska. It could actually be the #2 football conference on the field (not just in the media) for the first time in decades with a better top and middle to pair with the always horrible bottom 1/3.

The SEC already probably earned 4/12 most seasons, if either of Texas or OU thrives that could be a more solid 4 or even 5/6 in terms of who deserves top 12.

I'm talking about actual DESERVING of a spot. Of course we know the committee will invent new weekly rules to help the Big Ten whenever possible.

 

[AuH2O]

“Don’t let long term thinking get in the way of short term profits.” I think you’re spot on.

Unfortunately I don’t think these media giants have the best interest of the sport at the top of their priority list. They’re businesses with stakeholders and executives who are driven by profit. They’re not thinking about the ones potentially left behind.

Shoot, I’d bet most of the conference leaders and string pullers at FOX and ESPN will be in new jobs in a decade or less. This mess is for the next guys to clean up, may as well get ours now.

I think it's more that the lifespan of an exec. job at a major network isn't long enough to matter. I believe 100% that a smaller premier league and further fracturing college football will lead to a significant contraction in the total college sports media value. The macro viewership and attendance trends point to this. We see already what happens when big name teams play meaningless games. Viewership takes a big hit. Eventually, even those schools and networks in a premier league feel it. But by the time that happens, none of the ESPN, Fox, ADs or conference commissioners are going to be around.

It would be a play to reduce inventory, keep the highest value inventory and replace the rest with non-college sports inventory. In other words, sacrificing growth overall for lower volume and higher margins in a short term. But the viewership absolutely doesn't support that a league of 24-40 is going to do well long term.

In the 2022 regular season there were 22 games that had over 5M viewers. 20 of those involved Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas or Florida. The other two were FSU-LSU and USC-ND. And realistically most of these scraped above 5 M. As a reference TCU against 4-7 ISU drew 4.3M.

What people are missing is they are looking at a super league of 24 or 30 teams and thinking that these top few teams are a representation of that type of league, and then there's a huge dropoff to those relegated. That's not the case. Ohio State and Alabama are complete outliers even within the Big 10 and SEC. Then there's another tier of the next 4-6. After that it's just a bunch of teams with marginal differences, where timeslot, network and adjacent games influence viewership. If you could look at teams in a similar time/network slot and see a huge difference between say the top 30 and remainder of the P4 teams, then I think you could say there is a chance it works. But that isn't at all the case.

There's just no way you can take the hit of cutting out a bunch of fans, believe there's no diminishing returns of having big name teams play more often vs. what they get now when they are more rare, and think this is going to work in the long run. But the returns in the short term may be enough to sway a bunch of guys that are only going to be around for another few years.

If a superleague would be successful, viewership, controlled for network and timeslot would have to be almost bimodal with the 30 or so superleague teams way above those relegated. That isn't at all what it is. It looks more like a hockey stick with Bama and Ohio State way at the top end, the likes of Michigan, Georgia, Florida and Texas along the curve, and the rest, starting with the likes of LSU on a long, pretty linear decline down to the worst of the power conference members.

 

[HouClone]

The P2 has to be extra careful though as the thing that makes CFB awesome is that every game matters. If you start getting to a point where OSU can get into the playoff losing the 3 hardest games on their schedule then it makes watching the regular season games less of must watch viewing.

Yeah, it would suck to see the 3rd place SEC or Big 10 teams resting their starters the last week of the season knowing they are in and can't get a bye.

3rd place 9-2 Michigan against 11-0 Ohio State (with USC in the Championship game) and Harbaugh rests JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum. Ugh.

 

[MugNight]

IF we can get SEC/B10 to agree to this model, I don’t think 6 of the at large spots will be taken by B10/SEC. That would mean you’d have the 4th and 5th place teams from those conferences in the playoffs.

I could see maybe the 4th place team in some cases (like LSU last year). But the 5th-place team from the SEC last year was 8-4 Miss St. The 4th place team in the B10 was 7-5 Maryland/Purdue. Even with the P12 teams joining the B10, I don’t see the committee taking 4 or 5-loss teams over a 1 or 2 loss ACC/B12 team, AS LONG AS the ACC/B12 can be competitive in the playoff games(this is a must!) The tv ratings wouldn’t be as good for a mediocre B10/SEC team (especially if it’s a brand like Purdue/Miss St) versus a good B12/ACC team

I’m cynical, so I’m just assuming that the “P2” will build their schedules in a way to maximize their chosen brands. It’s already playing out with divisions going away. Ohio State will never have to play Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, USC, and Oregon in one season.

And the cannon fodder in the lower tier of the conference will accept this as long as the TV checks are rolling in.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I think it's more that the lifespan of an exec. job at a major network isn't long enough to matter. I believe 100% that a smaller premier league and further fracturing college football will lead to a significant contraction in the total college sports media value. The macro viewership and attendance trends point to this. We see already what happens when big name teams play meaningless games. Viewership takes a big hit. Eventually, even those schools and networks in a premier league feel it. But by the time that happens, none of the ESPN, Fox, ADs or conference commissioners are going to be around.

It would be a play to reduce inventory, keep the highest value inventory and replace the rest with non-college sports inventory. In other words, sacrificing growth overall for lower volume and higher margins in a short term. But the viewership absolutely doesn't support that a league of 24-40 is going to do well long term.

In the 2022 regular season there were 22 games that had over 5M viewers. 20 of those involved Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas or Florida. The other two were FSU-LSU and USC-ND. And realistically most of these scraped above 5 M. As a reference TCU against 4-7 ISU drew 4.3M.

What people are missing is they are looking at a super league of 24 or 30 teams and thinking that these top few teams are a representation of that type of league, and then there's a huge dropoff to those relegated. That's not the case. Ohio State and Alabama are complete outliers even within the Big 10 and SEC. Then there's another tier of the next 4-6. After that it's just a bunch of teams with marginal differences, where timeslot, network and adjacent games influence viewership. If you could look at teams in a similar time/network slot and see a huge difference between say the top 30 and remainder of the P4 teams, then I think you could say there is a chance it works. But that isn't at all the case.

There's just no way you can take the hit of cutting out a bunch of fans, believe there's no diminishing returns of having big name teams play more often vs. what they get now when they are more rare, and think this is going to work in the long run. But the returns in the short term may be enough to sway a bunch of guys that are only going to be around for another few years.

If a superleague would be successful, viewership, controlled for network and timeslot would have to be almost bimodal with the 30 or so superleague teams way above those relegated. That isn't at all what it is. It looks more like a hockey stick with Bama and Ohio State way at the top end, the likes of Michigan, Georgia, Florida and Texas along the curve, and the rest, starting with the likes of LSU on a long, pretty linear decline down to the worst of the power conference members.

Don’t disagree with you but part of the reason those teams draw so well is they are ranked so high. An unranked bama vs and unranked Georgia isn’t drawing close to those numbers. People want to see top ranked teams lose or have close games.

A good example is that when Michigan played sparty in 2021 with both teams ranked it got close to 10mil viewers, last year when sparty was a mess it barley got over 5mil. Having ranked teams play ranked teams and having the potential for top teams to lose draws viewers regardless of what the name is on the front of the jersey.

 

[Big_Sill]

Oregon/Wash/USC could change the calculus a little for Big Ten. I still don't think they'll automatically be worthy of 3/12 every year but they will a lot of years now

Outside of Ohio State the previous Big Ten really hadn't done anything Baylor/TCU/OKSt haven't done as well or better for the past decade. Adding USC/Washington/Oregon could be pretty huge for their depth if those programs thrive. This is not adding Maryland, Rutgers and crappy Nebraska. It could actually be the #2 football conference on the field (not just in the media) for the first time in decades with a better top and middle to pair with the always horrible bottom 1/3.

The SEC already probably earned 4/12 most seasons, if either of Texas or OU thrives that could be a more solid 4 or even 5/6 in terms of who deserves top 12.

I'm talking about actual DESERVING of a spot. Of course we know the committee will invent new weekly rules to help the Big Ten whenever possible.

Don’t disagree if you are talking about deserving… but it won’t matter (as you point out). I’ve spent zero time evaluating this from a deserving standpoint.

 

[isucy86]

I like a cap of 3 out of 12 per conference. This is different than the NCAA basketball tourny. The 4th best team, or worse, in any conference doesn't deserve to play for a football national championship. I really don't think the 3rd place team deserves to either, but I'll throw them a bone due to the larger conferences being created.

I agree that having the 3rd or 4th best conference team in the playoff diminishes the importance of regular season games. Which is a unique aspect of CFB vs. NFL. It will be interesting to see if the bye for the 4 top ranked conference champions is a benefit.

But with change to 12 team playoff and drop to P4, it's a done deal we'll typically see 4+ teams from Big10 or SEC unless the ACC or Big12 can consistently develop 3-4 elite teams (10-2 or better). And ACC/Big12 teams that make the CFP need to win games. What TCU did last year was great for Big12, but impact diminished a bit by getting blown out by Georgia.

I feel there will be a compromise with the 2026 CFP payouts. A hybrid where a fixed percent is divided between P4 & G5 conferences based on schools in each conference. The remaining percentage will be distributed to conferences based on their # of playoff teams. Similar to the units concept used in NCAA Hoops. IMO to mirror the basketball methodology is misplaced because there are 68 teams and 32(?) conferences that get teams in the Hoops Tournament. With football there are only 12 teams invited.

 

[clone37]

Something that has stayed off the radar with this topic nationally is the fact that not only do football and conference affiliation impact athletic dollars, but they also are having a huge impact on the financials for the associated academic institutions. Look at the tuition charges for Bama.....extremely high for an average at best institution. They have leveraged and marketed their football success, however, and are attracting students from all over the country that want to be associated with a winner, and will pay top dollar for a mediocre education. On the other hand, many MAC schools and other G5 schools are really struggling with their enrollment numbers and attracting enough students to stay on stable ground. We are obviously seeing super conferences form athletically, but it is also spilling over to the educational side. More students moving to power schools, exponential tuition increases at such schools, and research partnerships migrating to power schools. My wife is a high school teacher in the Chicagoland area and said things have totally changed with kids target schools these days. I took a guess at the top 10 "hot" schools, and nailed 9 out of 10. You guessed it.....Bama, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, OSU, USC, Tenn, Fla, etc.

 

[dafarmer]

F### em