Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Jkclone15]

The latest on Conference Realignment and Cal - Saturday the 19th | Bear Insider

The latest on Conference Realignment and Cal - Saturday the 19th discussion on the Bear Insider Football Growls forum.

bearinsider.com

Cal's insider thinks they will be voted into the ACC today.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

The latest on Conference Realignment and Cal - Saturday the 19th | Bear Insider

The latest on Conference Realignment and Cal - Saturday the 19th discussion on the Bear Insider Football Growls forum.

bearinsider.com

Cal's insider thinks they will be voted into the ACC today.

 

[CascadeClone]

The latest on Conference Realignment and Cal - Saturday the 19th | Bear Insider

The latest on Conference Realignment and Cal - Saturday the 19th discussion on the Bear Insider Football Growls forum.

bearinsider.com

Cal's insider thinks they will be voted into the ACC today.

Trying to wish it into existence... or else just trying to get hits.

Only way Cal & Stanford get into ACC is if ND buys them in by formally, fully, joining the ACC themselves. Of which there is a near-zero probability.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I can squint and see the ACC taking Stanford and SMU since they'll be practically free but I don't see any way they take Cal unless your Wake Forest and BCs of the world decide that taking a smaller share it worth it for the academic prestige and false sense of stability.

 

[Cloneon]

A friendly piece of advice. If you want people to read what you've posted, you should organize your thoughts into paragraphs. Makes it much easier for the reader.

I agree. However, 'technically' the composite of the paragraph falls under the first sentence's claim.

What I 'should' have done is created other paragraphs without a single all-encompassing first sentence.

But, then again, maybe grammar structure has changed since I attended ISU over a half century ago.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

I can squint and see the ACC taking Stanford and SMU since they'll be practically free but I don't see any way they take Cal unless your Wake Forest and BCs of the world decide that taking a smaller share it worth it for the academic prestige and false sense of stability.

I think the only reason the ACC hasn’t completely shut it down is because the vote is close (only need to sway one vote for approval). So I’m sure Notre Dame and the “yea” votes are working behind the scenes to try and get one of the “nay” schools to switch.

I don’t see any of those 4 switching though, unless there is financial incentive (unequal revenue share, ND gives up some of its ACC revenue to spread around, etc). Those 4 are not going to sacrifice revenue for conference stability like the Big 12. They don’t care about the ACC’s long-term prospects.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I think the only reason the ACC hasn’t completely shut it down is because the vote is close (only need to sway one vote for approval). So I’m sure Notre Dame and the “yea” votes are working behind the scenes to try and get one of the “nay” schools to switch.

I don’t see any of those 4 switching though, unless there is financial incentive (unequal revenue share, ND gives up some of its ACC revenue to spread around, etc). Those 4 are not going to sacrifice revenue for conference stability like the Big 12. They don’t care about the ACC’s long-term prospects.

I think NC State could be swayed but you're right about the other 3. They're just biding their time until the Big Ten (UNC) and SEC (FSU and Clemson) become an affordable proposition.

 

[CyCrazy]

Cal and Stanford being in the Acc might be the dumbest move in realingment.

 

[isucy86]

Sorry if this was already discussed, but part of the apple deal was an infusion of cash for the conference to pay off a 70 million dollar shortage in funds.

Who is on the hook for that when the conference dissolves. Any remaining PAC school? This seems to be a giant hurdle in absorbing the MWC and keeping the PAC name.

The current Pac12 schools would be responsible as they were the parties that received the over payment.

Just an assumption, but since the Pac12 TV deal ends June 30, 2024, each school will have their share of the $50M or $70M withheld from their final Pac12 media rights payment.

 

[aeroclone]

You know I can see a scenario here where the ACC survives. I'm just not sure the networks are going to be too excited to pay B1G or SEC level money to ACC schools. Notre Dame isn't coming. FSU isn't at an elite level right now. I think there are valid questions about what Clemson will be after Dabo. And beyond that nobody adds much in the football space.

Are any of these schools appealing enough for schools to give up part of the cut to bring them in? My guess is no. The most reliable factor in all of this saga is greed, and I feel confident that won't change.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

You know I can see a scenario here where the ACC survives. I'm just not sure the networks are going to be too excited to pay B1G or SEC level money to ACC schools. Notre Dame isn't coming. FSU isn't at an elite level right now. I think there are valid questions about what Clemson will be after Dabo. And beyond that nobody adds much in the football space.

Are any of these schools appealing enough for schools to give up part of the cut to bring them in? My guess is no. The most reliable factor in all of this saga is greed, and I feel confident that won't change.

The ACC has another decade before they are in trouble. The GOR in place is worded in such a way that no school will be able to buy their way out for any more than a few seasons. So, by 2033 we will have the next round of expansion/consolidation of the leagues. By then cord cutting will be over and most content will be streamed.

One could very easily see a company like Amazon or Apple purchasing ESPN and wanting to move all the content to streaming. I do agree we are reaching the point of ever-increasing dollars going to universities just because they are in the B10, or SEC is not happening. No school outside of ND being added to either of those two leagues is going to bring in $70 to $100 million a year to increase the pot even more for the current schools. Within a decade Oregon and Washington are going to be getting a full share, thereby reducing the payout to the other schools.

 

[Cloneon]

The ACC has another decade before they are in trouble. The GOR in place is worded in such a way that no school will be able to buy their way out for any more than a few seasons. So, by 2033 we will have the next round of expansion/consolidation of the leagues. By then cord cutting will be over and most content will be streamed.

One could very easily see a company like Amazon or Apple purchasing ESPN and wanting to move all the content to streaming. I do agree we are reaching the point of ever-increasing dollars going to universities just because they are in the B10, or SEC is not happening. No school outside of ND being added to either of those two leagues is going to bring in $70 to $100 million a year to increase the pot even more for the current schools. Within a decade Oregon and Washington are going to be getting a full share, thereby reducing the payout to the other schools.

I'm sure everyone can agree that the media climate by the time this contract is up will be substantially different. How that translates into dollars is anyone's guess. But, Moore's Law will have many of us in total awe by that time.

 

[MartyFine]

 

[Jer]

I don't doubt the B1G and SEC are trying to play alpha and swing their dicks around. But, the other conferences get a vote too if I recall and it's not like the B1G and SEC are going to be raiding any Big 12 teams out of spite. It's posturing, nothing more.

 

[LonelyCyKC]

The ACC has another decade before they are in trouble. The GOR in place is worded in such a way that no school will be able to buy their way out for any more than a few seasons. So, by 2033 we will have the next round of expansion/consolidation of the leagues. By then cord cutting will be over and most content will be streamed.

One could very easily see a company like Amazon or Apple purchasing ESPN and wanting to move all the content to streaming. I do agree we are reaching the point of ever-increasing dollars going to universities just because they are in the B10, or SEC is not happening. No school outside of ND being added to either of those two leagues is going to bring in $70 to $100 million a year to increase the pot even more for the current schools. Within a decade Oregon and Washington are going to be getting a full share, thereby reducing the payout to the other schools.

Sports streaming is just a fad that will go away in the near future. People are beginning to add up the access dollars for the content they want and realize the totals are approaching cable and satellite amounts, yet they find they are missing channels they want and have to take cable and satellite anyway.

If anyone liked our Cyclone.tv streaming please see your psychiatrist today.

 

[cykadelic2]

Translation=>This is ESPN and Fox trying to dictate so that new entrants like Apple and Amazon are deterred from making competitive bids for the new CFP deal.

If true, this will be time for Yormark, Phillips and other CFP commissioners to tell the B10 and SEC to go eff themselves.

 

[isucy86]

That is some bad reporting. The journalist cited just says that Big12 shouldn't stand in Big10 and SEC's way.

But the article doesn't say what Big10 & SEC want from CFP. Or how Big12's needs will be different.

Barring the Big10 and SEC requiring a set number of their schools in the playoff, not sure there is a power play that can benefit Big10 or SEC over Big12 or ACC.

 

[werdnamanhill]

That is some bad reporting. The journalist cited just says that Big12 shouldn't stand in Big10 and SEC's way.

But the article doesn't say what Big10 & SEC want from CFP. Or how Big12's needs will be different.

Barring the Big10 and SEC requiring a set number of their schools in the playoff, not sure there is a power play that can benefit Big10 or SEC over Big12 or ACC.

HCS is not what id call legit sports journalism.

 

[Jer]

Sports streaming is just a fad that will go away in the near future. People are beginning to add up the access dollars for the content they want and realize the totals are approaching cable and satellite amounts, yet they find they are missing channels they want and have to take cable and satellite anyway.

If anyone liked our Cyclone.tv streaming please see your psychiatrist today.

People were stupid to ever think streaming was going to remain cheaper than cable/satellite - it was simply artificially low pricing to speed the transition. If you want to get everything you had on cable/satellite, you're going to end up spending the same or more in another few years.

Us for example:
Hulu Live TV no ads (highest tier) + Extra Screens, Sports, Entertainment, and Learning addons
Discovery+
Disney+
ESPN+
MAX
History Vault
Paramount
Peacock
Prime
Netflix
Apple TV+
Probably something else

In the long-run, prices for the same amount of content will likely be higher because you don't have overall packages subsidizing certain channels or addons. Granted, a lot of people won't subscribe to so many things and/or for the entire year.

 

[CydeofFries]

You know I can see a scenario here where the ACC survives. I'm just not sure the networks are going to be too excited to pay B1G or SEC level money to ACC schools. Notre Dame isn't coming. FSU isn't at an elite level right now. I think there are valid questions about what Clemson will be after Dabo. And beyond that nobody adds much in the football space.

Are any of these schools appealing enough for schools to give up part of the cut to bring them in? My guess is no. The most reliable factor in all of this saga is greed, and I feel confident that won't change.

I agree with you for the most part. Right now, even though there is a clear 1&2 with the Big10 and SEC, there is still enough money for a similar 3 & 4 with the Big12 and ACC. This is still with 2 major players (Fox and ESPN) and a few minor ones (CBS, NBC, Turner?, CW?). Throw in a couple streamers and there should be enough money for these 4 conferences (or schools) to all be competitive-ish. That's enough inventory for everyone to get a piece, but also limited enough to keep the price elevated.