Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[alarson]

So why didn't the Big12 get the entire amount due from OuT? Discounted the exit fees and $0 for 1 year of GoR. If so easy and inviolable, why negotiate?

Because the Big 12 had its own reasons for wanting to expedite the move. New members coming in and only one year left on that deal anyway. Plus there may be advantages to having that settled before moving on to try to grab members from out west.

There's no real comparable benefit for most of the remaining ACC members at this point

 

[FriendlySpartan]

hes actually a john deere

Explains why he runs so well

 

[AuH2O]

There are a finite number of prime broadcasting slots. Media knows how much they can spend per slot to net a profit. I don't think they particularly care about conference as much as confidence that they can hit the viewership they need to justify the price they paid for the contract.

Count the number of "Tier 1" and "Tier 2" games a conference can generate over the course of the year.

If the B10 can bring in more schools to reassure media to be more confident about the #6 B10 game than the #2 B12 game, then the B10 will expand and the B12 will lose a prime slot.

This is what is happening to the P10 right now. ESPN/ABC and Fox/CBS/NBC feel more confident about viewership numbers for their current SEC/ACC/B12 and B10/B12 assortment than the theoretical "Tier 2" P10 games. (IMHO, the P10 "Tier 1" games bring a lot of value, but not enough to float the conference)

The only other way is to convince someone (e.g. NBC) to add more prime slots.

While correct - we are seeing a limit in demand for inventory, I think the limiting factor for expansion for the Big 10 or SEC is does ESPN or Fox want to pay those prices to fill out their lesser slots and channels? Or would they rather pay Big 12 prices. It’s probably at the point where the value to the networks for most of the expansion targets does not match or exceed what they’d have to increase the P2 media deals to benefit the conferences.

If you're running a major media company do you want to pay Illinois and Iowa each $80m per year to draw 680k viewers on FS1, or do you want to pay ISU and Texas Tech each $35m/year to get 600k on FS1?

Without exiling half the Big 10 and SEC, it's probably at a point where outside of ND, further consolidation into the Big 10 and SEC no longer makes the most financial sense, and utilizing the Big 12 is a far better business proposition.

 

[isucy86]

Agreed but they are stuck. Public comments like this help appease the fans that the AD is doing something about it and that they recognize the problem. FSU and UNC can try all they want but they truly appear stuck for awhile

But at some point don't the P5 conferences along with media partners get in a room and settle this thing one & for all? It would seem like waiting on the Pac12 to implode between now & 2030 and then waiting for ACC to implode in 2036 doesn't benefit anyone. Chaos and uncertainty usually aren't good in business.

Maybe some schools hope they are able to increase their media rights value between now & 2030 and make themselves attractive to Big10/SEC.

 

[exCyDing]

But at some point don't the P5 conferences along with media partners get in a room and settle this thing one & for all? It would seem like waiting on the Pac12 to implode between now & 2030 and then waiting for ACC to implode in 2036 doesn't benefit anyone. Chaos and uncertainty usually aren't good in business.

Maybe some schools hope they are able to increase their media rights value between now & 2030 and make themselves attractive to Big10/SEC.

No.

The ACC is winning right now because they're still alive. That probably ends, or at least their time as a power conference ends, with their GOR.

ESPN is winning right now because they have the media rights to a P4 conference for less than what a un-workable PAC deal would cost (with 4 additional schools!).

Pitt, NC State, and VA Tech are, well, not losing right now because they're roughly on par with the B12 and in a power conference.

Duke is winning because they don't have to decide between going independent in FB and joining the Big East in BB or joining the B12.

Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College Georgia Tech and Wake Forest are winning right now because they're still in a P4 conference. Not all of them are going to have a seat in a P3 world.

The SEC is winning right now because they're comfortably the #1b conference. The B10 is winning right now because they're comfortable the #1a conference. They don't need ACC teams to make obscene amounts of money, and adding ACC schools isn't likely to change their position or make them more money.

The B12 is winning right now because if there's a way around the ACC's GOR, there's probably a way around the B12's should the SEC/B10 come calling for another member. It's also very well positioned to be the #3 conference when the dust settles. Another media deal cycle and GOR that runs through 2038 or so and they're virtually assured the ability to pick from the ACC.

The only ones losing right now are UNC, FSU, Clemson, Miami and maybe UVA. Or whoever would get a B10/SEC invite assuming that Fox and ESPN are willing to put additional shares in the pot.

Also the PAC, but they already lost when the B12 stayed afloat and then got their extension.

 

[alarson]

But at some point don't the P5 conferences along with media partners get in a room and settle this thing one & for all? It would seem like waiting on the Pac12 to implode between now & 2030 and then waiting for ACC to implode in 2036 doesn't benefit anyone. Chaos and uncertainty usually aren't good in business.

Maybe some schools hope they are able to increase their media rights value between now & 2030 and make themselves attractive to Big10/SEC.

If it was possible for all the conferences to get in a room and coordinate what was best for all involved it would have happened a long time ago. Everyone's been looking out for themselves for a long, long time, to the detriment of college sports as a whole

 

[Gorm]

If it was possible for all the conferences to get in a room and coordinate what was best for all involved it would have happened a long time ago. Everyone's been looking out for themselves for a long, long time, to the detriment of college sports as a whole

That level of collusion would likely be illegal. They would need an NFL style anti-trust exemption.

 

[isucy86]

While correct - we are seeing a limit in demand for inventory, I think the limiting factor for expansion for the Big 10 or SEC is does ESPN or Fox want to pay those prices to fill out their lesser slots and channels? Or would they rather pay Big 12 prices. It’s probably at the point where the value to the networks for most of the expansion targets does not match or exceed what they’d have to increase the P2 media deals to benefit the conferences.

If you're running a major media company do you want to pay Illinois and Iowa each $80m per year to draw 680k viewers on FS1, or do you want to pay ISU and Texas Tech each $35m/year to get 600k on FS1?

Without exiling half the Big 10 and SEC, it's probably at a point where outside of ND, further consolidation into the Big 10 and SEC no longer makes the most financial sense, and utilizing the Big 12 is a far better business proposition.

The other side of that is streaming. Linear still pays the most. Does the time come (is it 2030, 2036 or maybe never) when streaming closes the gap. Then slots/channels aren't the 100lb gorilla in the room.

It would be interesting to see a comparison of the ACCN & SECN financials. Are SECN revenues and viewership figures significantly higher, a multiplier higher or about the same?

 

[Clonedogg]

Big12 had no reason to negotiate either, and took appx 50% of the amount owed.

Exit fees - 2 years @ $35M each = $70M. Plus their GoR for 1 year. That's EACH. But we got $100M (minus Fox cut $20M). Total.

So Big12 got $80M of $140M exit fees (57%), and ZERO for 1 year of GoR.

The much longer ACC GoR has a lot more leverage than the 1 year vs OuT, so that is important. But still, you CAN run the numbers on such a thing.

I guess my point is that you can probably cut that number in half as a practical step. So say $340M ($120+$220). Cut that down to $200M. But if you get $50M more annual, and are guaranteed a spot at the big table forever, that's a no brainer investment.

And if you think the conference can hold their feet to the fire and force them to pay up every last cent... I doubt it. The Hateful 8 couldn't make it happen. Rarely does something like this not get settled. Clemson and FSU could countersue the ACC for dereliction of duty or some such trumped up crap, and string this thing out forever. And there will be motivation for the conference to get on with it.

I am not saying this is imminent or will happen this way exactly. It's probably closer to 2030 than today.

Another way: if the over/under for FSU leaving the ACC was 2035 (GoR expires 2036), would you take the over?

OuT is leaving 1 year early. How is it that B12 was owed 2 years of exit fees but 1 year GoRs?

I will try to answer my own question. Is the exit fee 35M per school, even if they waited out the whole contract?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

The other side of that is streaming. Linear still pays the most. Does the time come (is it 2030, 2036 or maybe never) when streaming closes the gap. Then slots/channels aren't the 100lb gorilla in the room.

It would be interesting to see a comparison of the ACCN & SECN financials. Are SECN revenues and viewership figures significantly higher, a multiplier higher or about the same?

According to every financial report streaming isn’t supposed to close the gap for the foreseeable future. All the streaming services except for Netflix are posting massive losses. Several are talking about being shut down. Apple and Amazon would already have shut theirs down if they weren’t trillion dollar companies whos streaming services are rounding errors.

 

[Yellow Snow]

BY press conference today... lmao at Randy's question at the end. Brett put him in his place. LOL Randy is a weirdo for a reporter. Other than Randy, some good questions.

 

[alarson]

BY press conference today... lmao at Randy's question at the end. Brett put him in his place. LOL Randy is a weirdo for a reporter. Other than Randy, some good questions.

Lol, you have a chance to ask a substantive question and instead you complain about not being gifted courtside seats.

 

[isucy86]

If it was possible for all the conferences to get in a room and coordinate what was best for all involved it would have happened a long time ago. Everyone's been looking out for themselves for a long, long time, to the detriment of college sports as a whole

Conferences have been looking out for each other for a long time, but that is pretty natural as the member alliances with each P5 goes back around 100 years. But not sure it has been for the detriment of the sport until the last decade. Go back 10-12 years and media rights #'s are laughable. In 2012 the difference between a Big10 & ACC school media rights was $7M. Now its $30M.

I don't feel a P3 would be a bad thing. Actually, it could be a positive for the Big12 over the next 10-20 years as the Big12 could close the financial gap with the Big10 & SEC if Big 18-24 teams can stay competitive with the Big10 & SEC on the court/field. Obviously, football is the key.

The biggest risk for the Big12 is its TV partners are also heavily invested in the Big10(Fox) and SEC (Disney). If in 2030+ Fox/Disney decide to focus their investment on the Big10/SEC respectively, then the Big18-24 is going to need to find strong partner(s) with deep pockets.

 

[Yellow Snow]

Lol, you have a chance to ask a substantive question and instead you complain about not being gifted courtside seats.

I mean... that is too funny. Honestly.

 

[IceCyIce]

Couple things:

1. Has the court side seats where we used to sit, have those all been sold? YES SIR.........EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM. LOLOLOLOL HAHAHA

2. I'm now convinced after listening to BY two things:

a. Expansion is coming to the Big12. He knows something he's not telling us. Surprised he mentioned Gonzaga and waiting for the other opportunities.

b. Steaming will kill the PAC. No visibility, I looked on ESPN and saw Depaul Seaton Hall game turned it on. That simple piece allowed me to watch the most exciting last 45 seconds of ball all year.

 

[sunset]

BY press conference today... lmao at Randy's question at the end. Brett put him in his place. LOL Randy is a weirdo for a reporter. Other than Randy, some good questions.

Somebody please put Randy out to pasture. For his own good.

 

[isucy86]

According to every financial report streaming isn’t supposed to close the gap for the foreseeable future. All the streaming services except for Netflix are posting massive losses. Several are talking about being shut down. Apple and Amazon would already have shut theirs down if they weren’t trillion dollar companies whos streaming services are rounding errors.

Yea, the question isn't the foreseeable future. The question is 2030 or 2036.

The linear model isn't perfect either. ESPN is eyeing moving all of its networks to a subscription based platform. If that comes to fruition, then multi-channel cable and streaming platforms (Mediacom, Comcast, YouTubeTV, Hulu Live, etc.) might become niche entities. What would BTN financials look like if carriage revenue declines significantly?

If I could buy ESPN programming for $30-$40/month, I would purchase that and cycle through a couple streaming services like Netflix, Prime, Hulu, Paramount+ and Apple+.

 

[tman24]

Well randy can't see far so he needs that court side seats. He's probably watching the ge right now thinking isu is playing.

 

[SCNCY]

That smirk on BY face when he answered Randy’s question is just priceless.

 

[alarson]

Well randy can't see far so he needs that court side seats. He's probably watching the ge right now thinking isu is playing.

Fewer cords to step on away from the court though