Keep posting it. I come here for unfounded rumors and speculation. Thats half the fun.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
Keep posting it. I come here for unfounded rumors and speculation. Thats half the fun.
Bottom line is that the PAC 12 can not deliver a television contract that provides adequate money. And the contract they are considering does not have large amount of viewership to give visibility to the broad general public.
Big 12 Contract offers decent money, high visibility and puts the conference in a stable position. UO and UW can decide if they want to join the Big 12. No uneven revenue sharing. GOR signed for the length of television contract. The last thing the Big 12 needs is to add teams that are selfishly looking only after their interest. UO and UW might find as the B1G and SEC drops them from their schedules and they play in front of virtually few television viewers that their high profiles will suffer. Recruiting will suffer because of the lack of visibility. And as their profile declines they will be even less sought after by the B1G. They might be stuck in the PAC 12. Arizona schools leave for sure. Other two corners will be fed up UW and UO and their demands. Join the Big 12. Get fairness and stability. Decent money and visibility.
Big 12 Contract offers decent money, high visibility and puts the conference in a stable position. UO and UW can decide if they want to join the Big 12. No uneven revenue sharing. GOR signed for the length of television contract. The last thing the Big 12 needs is to add teams that are selfishly looking only after their interest. UO and UW might find as the B1G and SEC drops them from their schedules and they play in front of virtually few television viewers that their high profiles will suffer. Recruiting will suffer because of the lack of visibility. And as their profile declines they will be even less sought after by the B1G. They might be stuck in the PAC 12. Arizona schools leave for sure. Other two corners will be fed up UW and UO and their demands. Join the Big 12. Get fairness and stability. Decent money and visibility.
The Pac member schools are pretty diverse in their profiles (from Stanford to Washington State). It's difficult enough getting such a diverse group to agree on a normal media package offer. It's going to be darn near impossible to get them all to agree to a crummy offer. Kiavkoff has an impossible task.
I find it incredibly interesting. By stepping back and seeing the trends over the past 50 years, I see one inevitability: commoditized entertainment. While so many on here are debating the here and now, they also tend not to see the trends or future. Channels for delivery are becoming more horizontal and obscure. We'll eventually have our entertainment preferences delivered automatically without concern for pathways.
ESPN putting up $100M might not be that bad; depends what all is included in the bid.
If that was for all Tier 1 content... well then that's very, very bad. Heck, even if it is for 2 FB games a week and half their bball, that is also pretty bad. If it was just for Tier3 stuff, then it would be great, but I highly doubt it.
I think what you are seeing is how the TV values the games. They really only have a lot of value for bigger games in better timeslots. Most of the bottom half games on ESPN+ or FS2 draw jack, and reruns of the 85 Bears would get the same viewer numbers for less money.
The PAC as it is, you are going to have probably 1 good game a week and the rest very meh. You can fill a late night slot with a meh game, and that is OK value. The other 3 games are going to be very minimal value. The best games featuring UO and UW will be out of conference, and you will only get half of those. So you are buying one good and one avg and 3 bad games per week.
With the Big12, you have a couple more teams, more likely to have ranked teams available, and tons of flexibility on game times. So you have probably 2 good games per week instead of 1, and you can flex them across 4 time spots instead of 3. That makes the value maybe 2x the PAC. That's on top of just generally a little more interest on a per team basis.
I am starting to wonder how much value there really is in adding PAC teams. Obviously UW/UO would be a big deal, since often ranked and big games. But would even the Arizonas really help much? I suppose they would give you some late night slot availability, but not every week. It also shows there is little value in adding like 8 PAC teams - you would be getting 1 more good game (maybe 2) and increased timeslot flexibility, but a lot more mouths to feed too. Would be dilutive per team.
Maybe grab all 4 of those and go to 16; then when the ACC splits UW/UO go to the B1G and Big12 grabs Pitt and LVille to replace them. And maybe 4 more ACC to go to 20 if so desired.
Already there. When I was a kid, there were 3 things to watch on TV and probably half of everyone watched the same shows. Now it's a surprise if someone has heard of whatever you are binge watching on netflix.
And yet, here I am now watching some Netflix programming on Amazon prime. And I've set up Plex now to garner cross platform entertainment. Soon, it'll be charge per 'show' with complete disregard of whether Amazon, Netflix, or ESPN 'produced' the 'show'.
FYI - Conversation on a Utah board. I know... TLDR, but whatever it takes to get off of NASCAR and streaming based on age.
NashvilleUte
Ute Fan
@nashvilleute05
It’s unfortunate that ALUF got so many down votes for his read on this topic. I think he’s spot on. Let’s be clear, I’m definitely NOT a fan of the idea of the Big12 being our best landing spot nor being in the same conference as TDS (that thought is just so depressing), but I want what’s best for the team and what’s best for our recruiting and competitive future. As much as I loathe saying this, going to the Big12 is our best bet. Maybe the PAC will piece together a ridiculous streaming strategy and get us a Big12 level payout, but let me be clear, matching the Big12 financially would NOT be a win if the majority of our conference’s games are on streaming only. A short term win, yes, but long term it would be catastrophic. Even more so than PAC12 After Dark was a short term win to get more cash but has screwed us in national viewership and relevance. A largely streaming plan would be SO MUCH worse. Maybe streaming is the future, let’s revisit it then. The top recruits want to be seen on TV now. They don’t care about the future after they’re gone. They care about being part of a relevant program now that is competitive, that their friends and family can easily watch and that gives them as much national exposure as possible. Even now the PAC as a whole is failing in all of those areas. Whatever we think of the Big12, TCU was in the national championship game and the Big12’s basketball will eat the PAC’s lunch.
On the bright side, the Big12 will reduce our late night games and being in the same conference as TDS will mean that we don’t need to waste a non-conference game on them anymore. Especially if it will mean that we can play more P5 non-conference games without also having to play TDS and making our schedule too difficult. Plus, maybe we can start playing Utah State again? That was always a more enjoyable rivalry then the soul crushing charade with TDS has become.
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see the future of the PAC as anything more than a glorified MWC.
NashvilleUte
Ute Fan
@nashvilleute05
It’s unfortunate that ALUF got so many down votes for his read on this topic. I think he’s spot on. Let’s be clear, I’m definitely NOT a fan of the idea of the Big12 being our best landing spot nor being in the same conference as TDS (that thought is just so depressing), but I want what’s best for the team and what’s best for our recruiting and competitive future. As much as I loathe saying this, going to the Big12 is our best bet. Maybe the PAC will piece together a ridiculous streaming strategy and get us a Big12 level payout, but let me be clear, matching the Big12 financially would NOT be a win if the majority of our conference’s games are on streaming only. A short term win, yes, but long term it would be catastrophic. Even more so than PAC12 After Dark was a short term win to get more cash but has screwed us in national viewership and relevance. A largely streaming plan would be SO MUCH worse. Maybe streaming is the future, let’s revisit it then. The top recruits want to be seen on TV now. They don’t care about the future after they’re gone. They care about being part of a relevant program now that is competitive, that their friends and family can easily watch and that gives them as much national exposure as possible. Even now the PAC as a whole is failing in all of those areas. Whatever we think of the Big12, TCU was in the national championship game and the Big12’s basketball will eat the PAC’s lunch.
On the bright side, the Big12 will reduce our late night games and being in the same conference as TDS will mean that we don’t need to waste a non-conference game on them anymore. Especially if it will mean that we can play more P5 non-conference games without also having to play TDS and making our schedule too difficult. Plus, maybe we can start playing Utah State again? That was always a more enjoyable rivalry then the soul crushing charade with TDS has become.
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see the future of the PAC as anything more than a glorified MWC.
- 02/22/2023 at 9:56 AM #186149
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NashvilleUte
Ute Fan
@nashvilleute05
By the way, since I moved out east to Nashville I have a better understanding of the “East Coast bias”. Aside from other people like me who are from the west, no one I talk to pays attention to any PAC games. They’re mostly done watching games for the day and getting their families ready for bed by the time we start playing.
Most people know that I’m a big fan and occasionally ask what time our game is on. Almost always it’s “oh wow, that’s too late” and/or, “I’ll check the score and the highlights afterward, good luck!” I’ll always watch but even for me, it’s not as enjoyable when it’s so late and I’m tired and I know I’ll be tired the next day from getting to bed late.
If we still have to sign up for a majority of late nights to stay on the networks, let’s swallow our pride and head to the Big12. Who knows, maybe it will be better? (Aside from rejoining TDS, there’s very little positive spin on that one…)- 02/22/2023 at 12:46 PM #186166
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UteFanatic
Ute Fan
@utefanatic
My totally uninformed opinion is that the four corner schools won’t reach out to the Big12 while Oregon and Washington are still in the conference. Doesn’t look like the Big10 is calling, so their options are limited. Some Big12 honks think they’ll go to the Big12, but I don’t see that happening. I think they’d go Independent before they associated themselves with Big12 schools. Or, try to reach out to the ACC and sign onto their existing GOR.
You bring up an interesting point about viewership issues with west coast college football teams. There may be a viewpoint that it doesn’t matter where the Pac12 TV deal lands, it’s always going to have viewership issues, so they might as well go where the money is.
If Apple is willing to essentially overpay for the Pac12 in order to gain the Pac12 Network infrastructure and monetize it, than the conference would be fools not to listen to their offer. Apple is one of the richest and most influential companies on the planet. And if the Pac12 was their product, you know they’d heavily promote it. That is not a bad thing.
At the end of the day, I just want to watch Utah play and make a few playoff runs under the 12 team format. If Utah makes the move to the Big12, I wouldn’t care. Just give me Utah football.- 02/22/2023 at 2:46 PM #186173
NashvilleUte
Ute Fan
@nashvilleute05
I understand your point about the four corners not going anywhere while Oregon and Washington are still around; however, I’m increasingly wondering if the delay in getting a deal done is because Oregon/Washington are refusing to sign a long term grant of rights so they can leave for the B10 whenever they get invited. That sort of flexibility would obviously hurt the media contract which would also explain the rumors that the numbers are coming in lower than hoped for.
If the end result is a lower payout primarily due to Oregon/Washington’s grant of rights issue, then I could see the four corners leaving regardless of Oregon/Washington. In fact, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that’s Oregon/Washington’s plan. Several articles have speculated that if the PAC collapsed, the B10 would then pickup Oregon/Washington.
The only way Oregon/Washington go to the B12 is if it guarantees a larger payout than the PAC can get while also allowing them a flexible grant of rights. I think this is why the four corners + Oregon/Washington haven’t already moved together. It’s the grant of rights again.
As time goes on without a deal, the likelihood of the four corners leaving for the B12 regardless of Oregon/Washington increases.
All of this is my pure speculation and like you, all I care about is watching some Utah football, but I am concerned about us getting stuck in a bad situation in a conference drifting toward irrelevance…- 02/22/2023 at 5:53 PM #186181
UteFanatic
Ute Fan
@utefanatic
I have a hard time believing the narrative about UW/UO refusing to sign a GOR. I get the logic behind the speculation, but at the end of the day they will have to sign a GOR somewhere not named the B1G. It just doesn’t seem likely they would kneecap themselves financially in the hope that one day the B1G comes calling.
I would be absolutely shocked if the Big12 offered UW/UO a special exception to the GOR. This is a conference that has been under the thumb of UT/OU for a long, long time and are fed up with diva teams, special treatment, and being abandoned as teams jump to better conferences.
I agree that the longer this drags out, the more likely it is that a school (or pair of schools), reaches out to the Big12. But it just seems like that would have already happened if the Pac12 situation was as dire as the media mouthpieces are saying it is. I’m honestly skeptical of every person reporting on this. Even the more reputable guys have been incredibly loose with facts and their articles/podcasts are filled with opinion and speculation. For example, I listened to Marchand and Ourand’s (pretty reputable duo in the sports news biz) YouTube video today, and every single they said was prefaced with “I think…” or “it’s likely…”
I think Utah will be fine. If the Pac12 stays together, it means UW/UO will have signed a GOR and that probably means a decent TV deal and everyone hunkers down this media cycle. If the Pac12 doesn’t stay together, it means UW/UO found a way out (B1G at a reduced rate, ACC, Indepedent), and the four corner schools will be welcomed into the Big12 with open arms.
There is a nightmare scenario for Utah out there, albeit it’s pretty unlikely: if UW/UO ask to join the Big12. This would be incredibly sketchy territory for Utah because that means the Big12 may not invite any other teams and hang out at 14 in the hope that they can nab some ACC leftovers next decade when their GOR expires. If the Big12 took additional Pac12 schools, it would likely be Arizona/ASU and they stand pat at 16, same number as the SEC and B1G.
We better hope that UW/UO don’t bolt, because the Big12 would need to take 4 additional Pac12 schools for Utah to be included. And I’m very doubtful they would expand to 18 if they added the jewels of the Pac12 already. Hell, they might not go past 14. Fortunately, this is probably the least likely scenario.
- 02/22/2023 at 5:53 PM #186181
- 02/22/2023 at 2:46 PM #186173
- 02/22/2023 at 12:46 PM #186166
Man, the Big 12 missed a big opportunity to get everyone worked up yesterday. They should’ve said “Big announcement tomorrow!!!” and then laid this tweet on everyone.
I’ll open my score app to see what’s on that looks interesting. I don’t scroll anymore.
USCLA to B1G before the PAC got their new media deal, B12 scooped up the last tv slots, and now the PAC has no good media deal offers.
Someone should go to the Utah board and ask them why they hate the Big 12 so much and think they're above the association.
Some people on a Utah board are ok with going to B12 for reasons, Some people are not for reasons.
I think it’s because they have had some success following their jump to P5. Most recently they have won the PAC titles in a row. Plus BYU is Big 12 and like any healthy rivalry anything they like is automatically bad.
Can’t forget that they *almost* won the last two Rose Bowls.
I really think most of it is to do with their angst/rivalry with BYU, and a little of the PAC/West Coast elitism rubbing off on them.
