Bruns - Iowa Everywhere

[Drew0311]

My favorite plays of the game.

The option play we ran

Also, running the ball down two touchdowns with a minute and a half left in the game. That was sweet. Got us 3 or 4 yards.

 

[PSYclone22]

This is true, but I wonder if you eliminate teams with actual running quarterbacks from the stats if they still hold up.

Would certainly be an interesting distribution between the groups.

Though given the current state of our team, we'd also have to eliminate teams that can't block well and have below average running backs.



The above shows NFL goal line running on 3rd and 4th down between 2012-2021. The biggest takeaway may not be that shotgun runs are MORE successful but that there is little difference between the two.

 

[Bigman38]

This was my take away too. You could tell Bruns was thinking "what in the hell was that scheme or play call" several times when breaking it down.

The scariest part of this for me was 1) the scheme seems to be very predictable, 2) we don't adjust (Bruns references a play call where there were 10 people in the box and we still ran it), 3) we appear to be doing some very, very basic things poorly.

Yeah, the amount of just bad execution is rough. Stuff you’d expect in September still all over the place going into November.

 

[cycloneworld]

Yeah, the amount of just bad execution is rough. Stuff you’d expect in September still all over the place going into November.

Just listen to Chris’ postgame and he keeps saying week in and week out (he’s right) we cannot run the ball. Burns does the best job I’ve heard saying why. I’m not convinced this is a lack of talent problem but a scheme and consistency problem.

 

[Dirtguy4CY]

Manning should watch how Buffalo does it. They put a reciever in motion then use him to get push behind the QB. It's not like Dekkers is small either.

Bit it makes much more sense to start 7 yards back just to get back to the LOS.

The Chiefs like to send a TE in motion to under center, take the snap, and dive forward. I've seen other teams do this as well. Iowa State has a former QB in Easton Dean, that I would think could be capable of taking a snap and falling forward on a 4 and 1. If they don't wanna run Dekkers, try something else.

 

[NoCreativity]

I want you to know that history suggests running from shotgun in short yardage produces a higher success rate than running from under center.

Ok, keep defending the stupidity of it then. Are you a logical human being capable of reasoning? Then you'd understand why it's so ridiculous.

 

[tzjung]

Would certainly be an interesting distribution between the groups.

Though given the current state of our team, we'd also have to eliminate teams that can't block well and have below average running backs.

View attachment 104824

The above shows NFL goal line running on 3rd and 4th down between 2012-2021. The biggest takeaway may not be that shotgun runs are MORE successful but that there is little difference between the two.

FYI, QB sneak on 3rd and 4th down with a yard or less to go is about 15% higher success rate than any run.

Yale Study from 2015: https://sports.sites.yale.edu/succe...stand out,and suggests they are underutilized.

Article from 2019: https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com...k-is-the-most-underutilized-play-in-football/

PFF from 2020: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-just-fall-forward-nfl-teams-qb-sneak-underutilized

We have a huge strong QB, our center is arguably our best lineman, we have backs who can push the line. The answer is so excruciatingly simple on what to run in these situations.

 

[NoCreativity]

Would certainly be an interesting distribution between the groups.

Though given the current state of our team, we'd also have to eliminate teams that can't block well and have below average running backs.

View attachment 104824

The above shows NFL goal line running on 3rd and 4th down between 2012-2021. The biggest takeaway may not be that shotgun runs are MORE successful but that there is little difference between the two.

Yeah, thats great when you have a QB like Lamar or Jalen Hurts back there from the shotgun, or a fast elusive running back. When you have Dekkers and running backs that look like they are stuck in mud that's an extremely stupid play call.

 

[PSYclone22]

FYI, QB sneak on 3rd and 4th down with a yard or less to go is about 15% higher success rate than any run.

Yale Study from 2015: https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down#:~:text=The true trends stand out,and suggests they are underutilized.

Article from 2019: https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com...k-is-the-most-underutilized-play-in-football/

PFF from 2020: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-just-fall-forward-nfl-teams-qb-sneak-underutilized

We have a huge strong QB, our center is arguably our best lineman, we have backs who can push the line. The answer is so excruciatingly simple on what to run in these situations.

I completely agree that a QB sneak is the best play.

@jereseib specifically harangued running from shotgun when the data bears out that shotgun running is just as successful as behind center running.

Additionally, your second study shows ALL QB runs are the best choice, not just QB sneaks (see image below).

 

[trevn]

I think in year 7 we can probably identify with near certainty exactly what the problems are, and who to blame.

They are the same ones people have noticed and complained about for years. Maybe by year 10 they'll change personnel and strategy to address them?

Be patient. Trust the process, culture, margins, kicker. Whatever.

I’ve been reading your posts and I’m trying to figure out if your official stance is we need to move on from Campbell? Is that what you’re saying?

 

[NoCreativity]

I completely agree that a QB sneak is the best play.

@jereseib specifically harangued running from shotgun when the data bears out that shotgun running is just as successful as behind center running.

Additionally, your second study shows ALL QB runs are the best choice, not just QB sneaks (see image below).

View attachment 104828

Analytics are great and all, but does it take into consideration which running backs are more successful? You think we have running backs capable of converting that? Our backs usually average under 3ypc and now you want them having to break off a 6 yard run just to get back to the original line.

I'm sorry but we don't have the personnel to being trying idiotic stuff like that. Have Dekkers go under center and impose your will, if you csnt gain an inch then you have problems.

 

[SolarGarlic]

My favorite plays of the game.

The option play we ran

Also, running the ball down two touchdowns with a minute and a half left in the game. That was sweet. Got us 3 or 4 yards.

Lol that run play late was a fireable offense. I think it was 1st or 2nd down. We're trying not to use timeouts, not near a first down, and 15 yards(ish) from the end zone. And we run the ball?! What were they trying to accomplish? Best case scenario is we catch the defense sleeping?

 

[PSYclone22]

Analytics are great and all, but does it take into consideration which running backs are more successful? You think we have running backs capable of converting that? Our backs usually average under 3ypc and now you want them having to break off a 6 yard run just to get back to the original line.

I'm sorry but we don't have the personnel to being trying idiotic stuff like that. Have Dekkers go under center and impose your will, if you csnt gain an inch then you have problems.

I'm sorry, what are you saying in the bolded portion?

And pertaining to analytics, does the eye test tell us our O-line can block well enough for a QB sneak right now? Does the eye test help us understand what Dekkers is comfortable doing?

We don't know a lot of things. Analytics helps us know a little bit more.

 

[mkadl]

When offensive linemen watch the running back being tackled for no gain
there is a problem.

 

[LtRaczack]

My favorite plays of the game.

The option play we ran

Also, running the ball down two touchdowns with a minute and a half left in the game. That was sweet. Got us 3 or 4 yards.

Hey, you have to pad those yards per game stats. You don't do that by going for TDs.

 

[Drew0311]

Lol that run play late was a fireable offense. I think it was 1st or 2nd down. We're trying not to use timeouts, not near a first down, and 15 yards(ish) from the end zone. And we run the ball?! What were they trying to accomplish? Best case scenario is we catch the defense sleeping?

Even if you catch them sleeping. The chances of the running back making it to the endzone is super low. So the only benefit was helping the other team win.

 

[tyrelrobert]

The Chiefs like to send a TE in motion to under center, take the snap, and dive forward. I've seen other teams do this as well. Iowa State has a former QB in Easton Dean, that I would think could be capable of taking a snap and falling forward on a 4 and 1. If they don't wanna run Dekkers, try something else.

Howard Brown should have been a lead blocker for short yardage situations all season so that when the time comes to really need to get a score or 1st down he could motion under center to get the ball as well.

 

[BigLame]

The Chiefs like to send a TE in motion to under center, take the snap, and dive forward. I've seen other teams do this as well. Iowa State has a former QB in Easton Dean, that I would think could be capable of taking a snap and falling forward on a 4 and 1. If they don't wanna run Dekkers, try something else.

We tried this in a recent game & had a procedure penalty. Can't execute = coaching
Teaching/Coaching

 

[CoKane]

You are welcome to do a similar breakdown. Please post it if you do.

He didn't say anything about the fans specifically. Just noted that none of us, from our position, can really pinpoint the issues. We observe symptoms and try to infer causes.

Just because you agree with 10 other comments doesn't mean they're any better informed. Bruns is just a fan who happened to play at ISU 20 years ago. He has a better understanding of football than 99% of posters on this site, self included. Probably better than 99% of the sports journalists in Iowa.

We all know the offense is bad. There are lots of things wrong, and no single "solution" is likely to fix it - even firing the entire offensive staff. But if it makes you feel better to gnash your teeth, go off king.

Actually listened to him on my meal break, it was quite good today. Better than the KU analysis for sure. Not sure why he doesn't do that every time. He finally broke down some plays and talked about what the issues were, which is what ive wanted from him for a while.

Criticism rescinded for this week

 

[Yaz]

Great review BB. Thank you!