AJ Green Leaves the Portal - Staying in Draft

[Sigmapolis]

I spent a few minutes this morning examining the Torvik data on last season and projections for next season with and without AJG on the roster. I thought I would share my findings here.

2021-2022
---
+13.3 NRTG (#43)
101.7 ORTG (#184)
88.4 DRTG (#5)
#8 in the B12 (ahead of KSU and WVU, behind OSU)

The Torvik data confirms what we already knew about the team last year -- they struggled mightily to score but they were a menace on defense, which contributed to the solid maiden voyage.

Torvik projection without AJG
---
+13.8 NTRG (#43)
106.7 ORTG (#87)
92.3 DRTG (#18)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU)

Without AJG on the team, the projections think Iowa State will be about as good as it was last year. The model has them taking a slight step backwards on defense (down to #18 from #5) but making a vast improvement on offense, mostly from the addition of the two St. Bonaventure transfers.

Torvik projection with AJG
---
+16.4 NTRG (#32)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
92.9 DRTG (#24-25)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU, but closer now)

AJG would make the team better overall, mostly through offense. He would make them slightly worse on defense, which makes sense given he isn't known as a defensive stopper and he would likely take playing time away from plus defenders like Holmes, Kalscheur, and Williams. That being said, he makes the offense about 35 places better in the projections, which makes up for any slight downgrade in defense.

For those of you who do not know, the Torvik projections for defense are essentially a "steady-state" model of long-term program performance metrics. The idea is defense is more dependent on team culture, style, and experience than on raw talent. You do not need some complex model to know that Virginia is usually going to have a good defense, and normally a model built on those terms works fine.

Iowa State is not "normal" in this regard. Defensive rankings since the Prohm hire --

#168
#101
#184
#65
#281
#252
#5

One of these things is not like the other. I hypothesize that the bad Prohm defenses are pulling down the projections of DRTG on Torvik, the model not fully having digested that it is a new era and TJ and Kyle Green are going to want to run a defense-first program. So what would happen to the projections above if we add AJ *and* we assume the defense would be no worse than it was last year?

I think that is a reasonable thing to presume, by the way. The roster is taller and longer than last year, full of guys with reputations as hard-nosed defenders, and has a pair of genuine rim protectors. AJG might be the weakest defender of the starters, but I am sure he's going to give it all he has.

Torvik projection with AJG and with last year's defensive rating
---
+20.9 NRTG (#12 ahead of Illinois and Indiana and behind Texas and Kansas)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
88.4 DRTG (#1 and am not kidding about that, #2 Baylor at 88.6)
#4 in the B12 (ahead of TCU and WVU and behind UT, KU, and Baylor)

A team like that grades out as being ranked in the top 10-15 and seeded as roughly a #3 or #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not guaranteeing it but, wow, this team would have some upside.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Fair point. But you'd probably think that if AJ was better than Matt right now he'd be getting told he's ready for the NBA and not told it'd be best to go back to college for one more year no?

Totally agree, there was an added value in MT that he went overseas to big clubs over there and learned how to be a professional before he came back to the States. That experience, learning to add value in practice, how to practice like a pro while living the lifestyle, etc are all underrated things that NBA GM’s are interested in that the average fan doesn’t fully take in to consideration because they are so tied up in things like shooting 69% from the line vs 70.23% from the line being a deciding factor in how much they like a player.

 

[Statefan10]

I spent a few minutes this morning examining the Torvik data on last season and projections for next season with and without AJG on the roster. I thought I would share my findings here.

2021-2022
---
+13.3 NRTG (#43)
101.7 ORTG (#184)
88.4 DRTG (#5)
#8 in the B12 (ahead of KSU and WVU, behind OSU)

The Torvik data confirms what we already knew about the team last year -- they struggled mightily to score but they were a menace on defense, which contributed to the solid maiden voyage.

Torvik projection without AJG
---
+13.8 NTRG (#43)
106.7 ORTG (#87)
92.3 DRTG (#18)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU)

Without AJG on the team, the projections think Iowa State will be about as good as it was last year. The model has them taking a slight step backwards on defense (down to #18 from #5) but making a vast improvement on offense, mostly from the addition of the two St. Bonaventure transfers.

Torvik projection with AJG
---
+16.4 NTRG (#32)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
92.9 DRTG (#24-25)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU, but closer now)

AJG would make the team slightly better overall. He would make them slightly worse on defense, which makes sense given he isn't known as a defensive stopper and he would likely take playing time away from plus defenders like Holmes, Kalscheur, and Williams. That being said, he makes the offense about 35 places better in the projections, which makes up for any slight downgrade in defense.

For those of you who do not know, the Torvik projections for defense are essentially a "steady-state" model of long-term program performance metrics. The idea is defense is more dependent on team culture, style, and experience than on raw talent. You do not need some complex model to know that Virginia is usually going to have a good defense, and normally a model built on those terms works fine.

Iowa State is not "normal" in this regard. Defensive rankings since the Prohm hire --

#168
#101
#184
#65
#281
#252
#5

One of these things is not like the other. I hypothesize that the bad Prohm defense are pulling down the projections of DRTG on Torvik, the model not fully having digested that it is a new era and TJ and Kyle Green are going to want to run a defense-first program. So what would happen to the projections above if we add AJ *and* we assume the defense would be no worse than it was last year?

I think that is a reasonable thing to presume, by the way. The roster is taller and longer than last year, full of guys with reputations as hard-nosed defenders, and has a pair of genuine rim protectors. AJG might be the weakest defender of the starters, but I am sure he's going to give it all he has.

Torvik projection with AJG and with last year's defensive rating
---
+20.9 NRTG (#12 ahead of Illinois and Indiana and behind Texas and Kansas)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
88.4 DRTG (#1 and am not kidding about that, #2 Baylor at 88.6)
#4 in the B12 (ahead of TCU and WVU and behind UT, KU, and Baylor)

A team like that grades out as being ranked in the top 10-15 and seeded as roughly a #3 or #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not guaranteeing it but, wow, this team would have some upside.

That made me aroused.

 

[carvers4math]

You've watched one play vs Missouri Valley players and one play vs NBA players. Your eye for talent must be elite. You didn't happen to challenge Brian Scalabrine to one on one?

Matt was a good college defender in a great basketball conference. Tougher go in the NBA but not sure how Green’s abilities would translate to the Big 12.

Matt and someone (was it Niang?) shut down Uthoff after his big first half, and I think Matt was giving up quite a bit of size there. Of course, Uthoff and his teammates also probably helped shut him down too, and Fran probably wanted McCabe shooting threes or some such nonsense.

 

[Tpups21]

He's certainly talented enough....

Teams only have two open two-way spots. Many of those won’t be filled by rookies.

 

[VeloClone]

I spent a few minutes this morning examining the Torvik data on last season and projections for next season with and without AJG on the roster. I thought I would share my findings here.

2021-2022
---
+13.3 NRTG (#43)
101.7 ORTG (#184)
88.4 DRTG (#5)
#8 in the B12 (ahead of KSU and WVU, behind OSU)

The Torvik data confirms what we already knew about the team last year -- they struggled mightily to score but they were a menace on defense, which contributed to the solid maiden voyage.

Torvik projection without AJG
---
+13.8 NTRG (#43)
106.7 ORTG (#87)
92.3 DRTG (#18)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU)

Without AJG on the team, the projections think Iowa State will be about as good as it was last year. The model has them taking a slight step backwards on defense (down to #18 from #5) but making a vast improvement on offense, mostly from the addition of the two St. Bonaventure transfers.

Torvik projection with AJG
---
+16.4 NTRG (#32)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
92.9 DRTG (#24-25)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU, but closer now)

AJG would make the team slightly better overall. He would make them slightly worse on defense, which makes sense given he isn't known as a defensive stopper and he would likely take playing time away from plus defenders like Holmes, Kalscheur, and Williams. That being said, he makes the offense about 35 places better in the projections, which makes up for any slight downgrade in defense.

For those of you who do not know, the Torvik projections for defense are essentially a "steady-state" model of long-term program performance metrics. The idea is defense is more dependent on team culture, style, and experience than on raw talent. You do not need some complex model to know that Virginia is usually going to have a good defense, and normally a model built on those terms works fine.

Iowa State is not "normal" in this regard. Defensive rankings since the Prohm hire --

#168
#101
#184
#65
#281
#252
#5

One of these things is not like the other. I hypothesize that the bad Prohm defense are pulling down the projections of DRTG on Torvik, the model not fully having digested that it is a new era and TJ and Kyle Green are going to want to run a defense-first program. So what would happen to the projections above if we add AJ *and* we assume the defense would be no worse than it was last year?

I think that is a reasonable thing to presume, by the way. The roster is taller and longer than last year, full of guys with reputations as hard-nosed defenders, and has a pair of genuine rim protectors. AJG might be the weakest defender of the starters, but I am sure he's going to give it all he has.

Torvik projection with AJG and with last year's defensive rating
---
+20.9 NRTG (#12 ahead of Illinois and Indiana and behind Texas and Kansas)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
88.4 DRTG (#1 and am not kidding about that, #2 Baylor at 88.6)
#4 in the B12 (ahead of TCU and WVU and behind UT, KU, and Baylor)

A team like that grades out as being ranked in the top 10-15 and seeded as roughly a #3 or #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not guaranteeing it but, wow, this team would have some upside.

I would add: UNI needed Green on the floor so he did not push the envelope on defense. TJ has demonstrated that defense comes first. With Green understanding that his time on the floor depends on defensive effort you will likely see more out of him on that end of the floor. He will also probably not feel like he is letting the team down when he gives the effort and a close call that goes against him sends him to the bench with foul trouble. This team won't be solely dependent on him to score.

In addition last year's squad wasn't dependent on a star defensive effort from one or two players. It was excellent team defense. A quality defender who isn't a star defensively will fit into the scheme without a lot drop in effectiveness if he is playing hard and within the flow of the defense.

 

[CyJack13]

Thomas earned his contract by his play in Europe where he was the best shooter (and best player) in the entire league and it wasn't even close. The NBA is an entirely different monster - way different than the Missouri Valley I might add.

Matt Thomas was not the best player in any of the European Leagues he played in.

 

[VeloClone]

Matt Thomas was not the best player in any of the European Leagues he played in.

You are correct. I was going off of bad information.

He was 3rd in scoring, 7th in 3P%, 2nd in 3P made, and 1st in FT% his first year in Europe.

His last year in Europe he was 1st in 3P% but only 8th in 3P made.

 

[cyfan92]

I spent a few minutes this morning examining the Torvik data on last season and projections for next season with and without AJG on the roster. I thought I would share my findings here.

2021-2022
---
+13.3 NRTG (#43)
101.7 ORTG (#184)
88.4 DRTG (#5)
#8 in the B12 (ahead of KSU and WVU, behind OSU)

The Torvik data confirms what we already knew about the team last year -- they struggled mightily to score but they were a menace on defense, which contributed to the solid maiden voyage.

Torvik projection without AJG
---
+13.8 NTRG (#43)
106.7 ORTG (#87)
92.3 DRTG (#18)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU)

Without AJG on the team, the projections think Iowa State will be about as good as it was last year. The model has them taking a slight step backwards on defense (down to #18 from #5) but making a vast improvement on offense, mostly from the addition of the two St. Bonaventure transfers.

Torvik projection with AJG
---
+16.4 NTRG (#32)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
92.9 DRTG (#24-25)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU, but closer now)

AJG would make the team slightly better overall. He would make them slightly worse on defense, which makes sense given he isn't known as a defensive stopper and he would likely take playing time away from plus defenders like Holmes, Kalscheur, and Williams. That being said, he makes the offense about 35 places better in the projections, which makes up for any slight downgrade in defense.

For those of you who do not know, the Torvik projections for defense are essentially a "steady-state" model of long-term program performance metrics. The idea is defense is more dependent on team culture, style, and experience than on raw talent. You do not need some complex model to know that Virginia is usually going to have a good defense, and normally a model built on those terms works fine.

Iowa State is not "normal" in this regard. Defensive rankings since the Prohm hire --

#168
#101
#184
#65
#281
#252
#5

One of these things is not like the other. I hypothesize that the bad Prohm defenses are pulling down the projections of DRTG on Torvik, the model not fully having digested that it is a new era and TJ and Kyle Green are going to want to run a defense-first program. So what would happen to the projections above if we add AJ *and* we assume the defense would be no worse than it was last year?

I think that is a reasonable thing to presume, by the way. The roster is taller and longer than last year, full of guys with reputations as hard-nosed defenders, and has a pair of genuine rim protectors. AJG might be the weakest defender of the starters, but I am sure he's going to give it all he has.

Torvik projection with AJG and with last year's defensive rating
---
+20.9 NRTG (#12 ahead of Illinois and Indiana and behind Texas and Kansas)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
88.4 DRTG (#1 and am not kidding about that, #2 Baylor at 88.6)
#4 in the B12 (ahead of TCU and WVU and behind UT, KU, and Baylor)

A team like that grades out as being ranked in the top 10-15 and seeded as roughly a #3 or #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not guaranteeing it but, wow, this team would have some upside.

Add in AJG's shooting/scoring by subtracting Gabe's shooting from 2021/22 and that is a significant upgrade to the offense.

 

[2122]

I spent a few minutes this morning examining the Torvik data on last season and projections for next season with and without AJG on the roster. I thought I would share my findings here.

2021-2022
---
+13.3 NRTG (#43)
101.7 ORTG (#184)
88.4 DRTG (#5)
#8 in the B12 (ahead of KSU and WVU, behind OSU)

The Torvik data confirms what we already knew about the team last year -- they struggled mightily to score but they were a menace on defense, which contributed to the solid maiden voyage.

Torvik projection without AJG
---
+13.8 NTRG (#43)
106.7 ORTG (#87)
92.3 DRTG (#18)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU)

Without AJG on the team, the projections think Iowa State will be about as good as it was last year. The model has them taking a slight step backwards on defense (down to #18 from #5) but making a vast improvement on offense, mostly from the addition of the two St. Bonaventure transfers.

Torvik projection with AJG
---
+16.4 NTRG (#32)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
92.9 DRTG (#24-25)
#9 in the B12 (ahead of KSU, behind OSU, but closer now)

AJG would make the team slightly better overall. He would make them slightly worse on defense, which makes sense given he isn't known as a defensive stopper and he would likely take playing time away from plus defenders like Holmes, Kalscheur, and Williams. That being said, he makes the offense about 35 places better in the projections, which makes up for any slight downgrade in defense.

For those of you who do not know, the Torvik projections for defense are essentially a "steady-state" model of long-term program performance metrics. The idea is defense is more dependent on team culture, style, and experience than on raw talent. You do not need some complex model to know that Virginia is usually going to have a good defense, and normally a model built on those terms works fine.

Iowa State is not "normal" in this regard. Defensive rankings since the Prohm hire --

#168
#101
#184
#65
#281
#252
#5

One of these things is not like the other. I hypothesize that the bad Prohm defenses are pulling down the projections of DRTG on Torvik, the model not fully having digested that it is a new era and TJ and Kyle Green are going to want to run a defense-first program. So what would happen to the projections above if we add AJ *and* we assume the defense would be no worse than it was last year?

I think that is a reasonable thing to presume, by the way. The roster is taller and longer than last year, full of guys with reputations as hard-nosed defenders, and has a pair of genuine rim protectors. AJG might be the weakest defender of the starters, but I am sure he's going to give it all he has.

Torvik projection with AJG and with last year's defensive rating
---
+20.9 NRTG (#12 ahead of Illinois and Indiana and behind Texas and Kansas)
109.3 ORTG (#51)
88.4 DRTG (#1 and am not kidding about that, #2 Baylor at 88.6)
#4 in the B12 (ahead of TCU and WVU and behind UT, KU, and Baylor)

A team like that grades out as being ranked in the top 10-15 and seeded as roughly a #3 or #4 seed in the NCAA tournament. Not guaranteeing it but, wow, this team would have some upside.

Interesting. How'd Torvik do on ISU last season - when I suppose most had ISU picked last and wound up Sweet 16?

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would add: UNI needed Green on the floor so he did not push the envelope on defense. TJ has demonstrated that defense comes first. With Green understanding that his time on the floor depends on defensive effort you will likely see more out of him on that end of the floor. He will also probably not feel like he is letting the team down when he gives the effort and a close call that goes against him sends him to the bench with foul trouble. This team won't be solely dependent on him to score.

In addition last year's squad wasn't dependent on a star defensive effort from one or two players. It was excellent team defense. A quality defender who isn't a star defensively will fit into the scheme without a lot drop in effectiveness if he is playing hard and within the flow of the defense.

I don't know enough about UNI basketball or X's and O's to answer this myself.

Did UNI run something similar to the pressure/baseline trap defense Iowa State ran so effectively last year? Was Kyle Green a de facto defensive coordinator in Cedar Falls like he was in Ames?

If so, did AJ play in that system under his father for years and therefore should have a smoother transition coming into it as a Cyclone? Or would none of that really matter or am I wrong?

 

[Sigmapolis]

Interesting. How'd Torvik do on ISU last season - when I suppose most had ISU picked last and wound up Sweet 16?

It was pretty close on the offense but completely whiffed on the defense.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I see where your logic is and I agree that AJ could end up being a better NBA player and likely will be if he takes that next step but Matt Thomas is currently in the NBA on a regular contract. If AJ were as good or better than Matt at this very moment he'd be getting drafted.

Valid points. I may have been ahead of myself, but I do think AJ has a much higher ceiling and perhaps should have phrased it as such

 

[Statefan10]

Cylights seems to maybe know something or is just really happy to be a Cyclone today.

 

[Statefan10]

Valid points. I may have been ahead of myself, but I do think AJ has a much higher ceiling and perhaps should have phrased it as such

I definitely agree with that

 

[Sigmapolis]

Cylights seems to maybe know something or is just really happy to be a Cyclone today.

It's always a great day to be a Cyclone.

 

[Statefan10]

It's always a great day to be a Cyclone.

Certainly is. I hope he does know something though

 

[CascadiaClone]

Certainly is. I hope he does know something though

He doesn’t.

 

[Statefan10]

He doesn’t.

Damn. I know it's going to happen soon I just want it to be announced so we can "officially" start getting real excited

 

[MJ271]

I don't know enough about UNI basketball or X's and O's to answer this myself.

Did UNI run something similar to the pressure/baseline trap defense Iowa State ran so effectively last year? Was Kyle Green a de facto defensive coordinator in Cedar Falls like he was in Ames?

If so, did AJ play in that system under his father for years and therefore should have a smoother transition coming into it as a Cyclone? Or would none of that really matter or am I wrong?

I haven't watched a ton of UNI basketball, but my understanding is that UNI's defense at least looks pretty different than Iowa State's, even when Kyle Green was at UNI. At times UNI has had an excellent defense, although not as much recently, but it's more typically been a sit-back, pack line defense like Virginia than a pressure defense like Iowa State had last year. That can be seen in their historical defensive rankings. Only one of UNI's teams since 2008 finished in the top 100 in defensive turnover percentage, where Iowa State was 6th last year.

That being said, it's possible that the fundamentals of the defense are very similar or identical, it's just different in how much pressure is applied.