Realignment, Alliance, and the Future of College Athletics

[HFCS]

If the Top 25 so to speak go off in their own division, the sport will become less popular. No one in the Midwest is going to care about the SEC.

And imagine what would happen to a school like Iowa if they sneak into that top league. They will be an absolute whipping boy at that level.

I think Iowa is in a great spot where they can compete once in a while for a conference championship and know that conf championship will have a chance at getting them in 4 team playoff and very good or guaranteed chance at 8 or 12 team playoff.

To me that's more popular for their fans than being the Sacramento Kings of the superleague would be. They aren't alone, if it's just SEC/Big Ten merger with USC and ND added teams like NW, Miss St and Vandy might be in even worse shape.

 

[Al_4_State]

I'd love to agree but can't...if given entre to the super-league, every team will have a presumably equal share of the revenue pie, beyond that it's competent management at the AD and HC levels. Pardon the NFL example but there's really no good reason the Detroit Lions have never been to the Super Bowl. They aren't predestined to suck ballz every always. Would be the same with Iowa.

There is no ******* way that happens.

 

[Jkclone15]

Thoughts on Cowherd's take here? Is CFP going to be more popular in 5 years? What's happening at USC in 12 months? Are they breaking away like the ND AD said the big dogs would?

I think it's pretty obvious that USC doesn't want to lose its status as a football blue blood, and if the P2 are making twice as much money and are the only leagues that are considered relevant they're going to need to do something to boost their status. Only really 3 ways to go: move to B10, go independent, or force the P12 to allocate them more resources to compete, ala what the B12 tried offering to Texas and Oklahoma.

 

[Al_4_State]

I think Iowa is in a great spot where they can compete once in a while for a conference championship and know that conf championship will have a chance at getting them in 4 team playoff and very good or guaranteed chance at 8 or 12 team playoff.

To me that's more popular for their fans than being the Sacramento Kings of the superleague would be. They aren't alone, if it's just SEC/Big Ten merger with USC and ND added teams like NW, Miss St and Vandy might be in even worse shape.

I think most Iowa fans I know would rather be in that second tier with a chance to be the gods of it, vs being the Kings of the upper tier.

 

[20eyes]

There is no ******* way that happens.

Why not...?

 

[cyfan92]

I think most Iowa fans I know would rather be in that second tier with a chance to be the gods of it, vs being the Kings of the upper tier.

Iowa fans are fools if they think they want to compete in a super league with the Blue Bloods. That program gets to beat up on the little sisters of the poor, aka the Big 10 West every year and then is put in their place regularly when playing real competition (Michigan).

They will turn into something below what Mississippi St is to the current SEC

 

[knowlesjam]

If the Top 25 so to speak go off in their own division, the sport will become less popular. No one in the Midwest is going to care about the SEC.

And imagine what would happen to a school like Iowa if they sneak into that top league. They will be an absolute whipping boy at that level.

And yet, they will cheerfully pocket the $100M a year and use that to power their other sports programs. I mean, a half dozen teams in the BIG and SEC do that right now.

 

[20eyes]

Iowa fans are fools if they think they want to compete in a super league with the Blue Bloods. That program gets to beat up on the little sisters of the poor, aka the Big 10 West every year and then is put in their place regularly when playing real competition (Michigan).

They will turn into something below what Mississippi St is to the current SEC

Nah, I think you guys are really missing this. A P2 is gonna mean 32ish teams flush with more cash than ever and in the media deals there will be parity. Since it's the wild west with NIL + Portal, I think it's be a real opportunity for an Iowa or Miss St. to achieve at a high level with the proper management.

 

[cyfanatic]

Why not...?

I can't see anyone convincing the AD's at Georgia, Bama, Florida and Texas to give equal shares to Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, etc. Now...if the new league were to be capped at 24 teams then maybe equal shares would happen. No way would the top 10 power schools be happy to share equal revenue with teams 47 and 48 (whoever that may be). Just my opinion though...

 

[cyfanatic]

Nah, I think you guys are really missing this. A P2 is gonna mean 32ish teams flush with more cash than ever and in the media deals there will be parity. Since it's the wild west with NIL + Portal, I think it's be a real opportunity for an Iowa or Miss St. to achieve at a high level with the proper management.

Proper management isn't always a given. But if the NIL is or will be "separate" from the school...I don't see how Iowa could compete with the Auburn or Bama type programs for recruits.

 

[Al_4_State]

Why not...?

College football has always been exploiting inherent inequalities. That's not going to be given up.

 

[20eyes]

I can't see anyone convincing the AD's at Georgia, Bama, Florida and Texas to give equal shares to Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, etc. Now...if the new league were to be capped at 24 teams then maybe equal shares would happen. No way would the top 10 power schools be happy to share equal revenue with teams 47 and 48 (whoever that may be). Just my opinion though...

I have to hand it to the B1G...I could absolutely see that conference demand equity with the SEC if they we in a B1G/SEC P2 condition. We'll have to agree to disagree...

 

[20eyes]

College football has always been exploiting inherent inequalities. That's not going to be given up.

Perhaps not if it becomes NFL Lite where the B1G plays the NFC role and the SEC the AFC role. I just thing a drastic constriction like a P2 will create parity we've never seen in CFB.

 

[cyfanatic]

I have to hand it to the B1G...I could absolutely see that conference demand equity with the SEC if they we in a B1G/SEC P2 condition. We'll have to agree to disagree...

For the sake of the sport I hope you are correct. I could see the SEC tell schools like Penn State/Ohio State/Michigan to join this new "league" without the others and they would have to consider that option wouldn't they? I mean...the Big 10 will certainly take the "all of us or none of us" stance at first but if the SEC balks...that might be enough to break those relationships.

 

[HFCS]

I have to hand it to the B1G...I could absolutely see that conference demand equity with the SEC if they we in a B1G/SEC P2 condition. We'll have to agree to disagree...

I'm not sure how bottom of Big Ten compares to SEC. Top compares to top for attendance, markets and eyeballs. It can't compete for recent titles but no other conference can and Ohio State and Clemson are the only individual non SEC programs recently that can throw their hat in that ring.

Do Kentucky, Miss St and Vandy really bring all this clout compared to Purdue, Indiana and NW? I'm guessing they are a draw too.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I have to hand it to the B1G...I could absolutely see that conference demand equity with the SEC if they we in a B1G/SEC P2 condition. We'll have to agree to disagree...

If a P2 situation happened then yeah they would 100% push for equality in money distributed but a P2 isn’t happening. The big ten and SEC are printing money right now. The new big ten deal will bring in 80-90mil per year per school and the SEC’s new deal will be in the same ballpark. Why would either conference want to change anything when they dominate the media dollars, tv ratings, and playoff appearances?

 

[WhoISthis]

It depends. Let's say the top 64 schools officially break away. And as part of that, they agree to only schedule each other. You get more games between teams with larger followings that way. More people are going to tune in to see Michigan State vs Arkansas than Michigan State vs Akron. More eyeballs = more money.

So, it's not that the sport is more popular overall. You might have less people watching college football in total, but it doesn't mean that the top 64 teams will necessarily lose viewers. They may even see an increase. If you're a casual Central Michigan fan, maybe you start following Michigan State? That kind of thing.

Exactly.

It is in the execution of the culling. And legally, it won't be fast. Just a slightly faster suffocation of anything not in the top 48 or so. Then in a generation, maybe you could see a formal separation, but there may not be a need to. The P5 has little issue with the American as long as the American doesn't have much power to determine rules, or has a rubber stamp vote. Soon it will just be a P2 (revenue), P3+ legally. Something like 7 or 11 spots for P2 in the CFP, 1 for the third conference, unless the G5 has a top-5 ranked champ

A big tent top 48 likely does better long term overall, but certainly better per school. It has better product identification, consolidation of talent, more structure, etc. If there is currently a big market in terms of CFB, it will be included.

Does anyone see the NFL expanding to 68+ teams any time soon? No, it wouldn't really grow the product much, with many more mouths to feed.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Nah, I think you guys are really missing this. A P2 is gonna mean 32ish teams flush with more cash than ever and in the media deals there will be parity. Since it's the wild west with NIL + Portal, I think it's be a real opportunity for an Iowa or Miss St. to achieve at a high level with the proper management.

The other teams will be trying to win too.

Those programs are already flush with cash. It's all relative. Iowa would get buried. I say go for it.

 

[Primetime26]

I didn’t see how college football will be more popular when 30+ schools will get demoted to mid major.

I am guessing the thought process is that the concentration of fans will outweigh the fans that drop out

 

[jcyclonee]

Also nothing sucks more than college football playoffs. You guys excited for next years Alabama Georgia rematch? Yawn.

I'm yawning even harder for Ohio State getting drubbed by one of those teams and by Notre Dame or Clemson getting drubbed by the other one in the playoffs.