The texas legislature, for various reasons, is not going to be able to move fast enough to prevent this even if it wanted to (something tells me UT has plenty of its own legislators that will support them).
I'd imagine the same for Oklahoma
Report: OU & Texas reach out to join SEC
- Thread starter BigJCy
- Start date
The texas legislature, for various reasons, is not going to be able to move fast enough to prevent this even if it wanted to (something tells me UT has plenty of its own legislators that will support them).
I'd imagine the same for Oklahoma
Yeah if it’s between the two, that’s the better option.
It’s still kind of a ****** deal for us. Why would the B10 take ISU and KU when they know OU and UT are unhappy and can make a play for them? Same for PAC.
I don't think Texas and OU are going to wait around to see if ESPN, FOX or the likes of Netflix or Amazon are going to aggressively bid-up the Big12's next TV rights contract.
In hindsight, when the Big12 hired media consultants last fall to inquire about renewing our TV contracts and the response from ESPN AND FOX was not interested- red flags should have gone up.
IMO it is pretty obvious that the Big10 is FOX's priority and the SEC is ESPN's from an investment standpoint.
The main questions:
- Does ESPN want the ACC Network around for 15 more years. To do so they are going to have to increase ACC rights fees significantly.
- Does the SEC (With ESPN's guidance) pull Clemson and a few other top ACC teams into the SEC?
IMO a 16 team SEC doesn't guarantee the SEC getting more teams in a 12 team playoff than when they had 14 teams. If Bama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, A&M, OU and Texas beat up on each other- more 2-3 loss teams might mean a tougher road to the playoffs. That doesn't even include games against historically solid teams in Auburn and Tennessee.
IMO the key for the SEC to maximize playoff teams is having 4 divisions of 5 teams, with fewer inter-divisional games to avoid elite teams knocking other elite teams out of the playoff race.
Approach scheduling like the NFL where teams play home & road against divisional opponents and then play one other division.
I also think the money from a 12 team playoff eliminates the need for Conference Championship Games. The SEC would tilt the schedule to get the 4 division winners playoff bids, plus 2-3 second place teams based on SOS.
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Everyone keeps talking about ESPN and Fox, but what about CBS? They are losing the SEC to ESPN; maybe they jump back in and give the Big 12 a massive deal that might include absorbing a few Pac 12 teams.
How does the SEC pull Clemson and a few other top ACC teams into it with the ACC's GOR through 2036 or whenever?
I keep flip flopping between "big 10 invite guaranteed", and "we're totally screwed"
kcbob79clone
Well-Known Member
Disney can make it happen if it wants to.
Do you think Dabo is going to sit back and let the new SEC and Big10 media rights deals be 50-100% more than what Clemson makes?
Clemson got around $38M from the ACC Network. In 2025, my guess is the SEC deal will be close to $100M per school if Texas & OU join the SEC. The Big10 deal could be around the same amount, but at least $85M per school annually.
ESPN holds the cards. If they want the ACC to survive, they significantly increase the ACC Network rights fees to close the gap between the ACC and SEC/Big10. If they want the ACC to fold, they stick firm to the current ACC Network deal. I would bet Clemson, FL State, UNC will bolt the ACC.
IMO ESPN benefits in lower overall TV rights payments by fewer conferences and fewer teams.
Well at least we'll know and not have a couple more weeks of negotiating with false hope.
UT/OU weren't changing their minds and the B12 to bow to them with uneven money sharing wasn't a solution. Still I was concerned the schools could string the left over 8 for weeks before heading to the SEC leading to some of ISU options getting eliminated.
So the GOR would stop the B1G from poaching ND and other ACC schools, but wouldn't stop the SEC?
I'm lost on this stuff...are they still gone after this year or is do they have to stick around until 2025 (awkward)?
A lot of numbers and I might have skipped over what the SEC is going to look like after 2025.
My guestimate is each SEC team could make $100M annually/school if Texas/OU are added.
The new ESPN agreement that replaces the current CBS deal goes from $55M with CBS to $300M with ESPN.
In 2025, the last year of the current Big12 deal, each school is projected to get $45 or a total conference payout of $450. A Big12 AD was quoted as saying 50% of Big12 rights fees were from having OU/Texas in the league. That would be $225M annually under the Big12 CURRENT contract. Media consultants were projected rights fees to increase 40-60% with the next agreement. Being conservative, OU/Texas's value to the SEC could be $300M.
The core SEC Network agreement with ESPN is valued around $700M today and will continue to rise.
They can be gone after this year if:
- theyre willing to pay an exit fee (could be substantial)
- or for little to nothing if them leaving causes the big 12 to dissolve anyway (looking pretty likely)
I'm guessing that Texas & OU think that the Big 12 will dissolve quickly and thus they won't have to wait that long to go to SEC and thus save them a TON of money.
Nope, if ESPN doesn't step up and increase ACC rights fees, I'm sure Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame, etc. will be more than willing to listen to Big10 as well as SEC.
