Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

[knowlesjam]

There's almost no data that shows all these lock downs have done anything and there is data to show otherwise. Like Sweden for example. They've done just a little social distancing and their death rate are right in the middle of the pack.

Yeah, let's eliminate the myth that Sweden is the model of choice for the virus...Sweden has 10 million in population, biggest city is smaller than the St Louis Metro, 2nd biggest city is smaller than Omaha, and 3rd biggest is smaller than Des Moines. In fact, as a close comparison, let's look to North Carolina (10.5 million in population) and how it has done with COVID...11,000 cases/408 deaths in North Carolina vs. 21,500 cases/2,653 deaths in Sweden.

So yeah, there you go...are the lack of restrictions worth it to have double the case numbers and almost 7 times the deaths? And before you say...but Sweden is testing more, so more cases...nope. North Carolina is testing nearly 1,000 more per million than Sweden.

Sweden is simply fortunate that it's population density per square mile is the fourth lowest of any of the European countries...it compares very closely to Iowa, not North Carolina with 3.5 times the population density. So yes, Sweden certainly has freedom of movement...and many openings in their senior care facilities.

 

[madguy30]

What do you disagree with? If you look at the reported deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US it has been trending down since mid April. April 15th to be exact. This isn't an opinion, it's a statement of fact.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The key will be if everything goes up in the next few weeks. Anything I've seen has been a recent plateau, but very, very small decline in a week or two.

If people are stupid, which they are, we could be seeing just the beginning.

 

[madguy30]

There's almost no data that shows all these lock downs have done anything and there is data to show otherwise. Like Sweden for example. They've done just a little social distancing and their death rate are right in the middle of the pack.

They've also had businesses close because of people not following the guidelines, and that's a way more disciplined country than here.

I guess they see that as unsafe.

 

[madguy30]

You seriously don't think that deaths wouldn't have been 2 or 3 times higher in places like NYC, Chicago, LA, etc if these measures weren't taken?

It's not that he doesn't know...he just doesn't care.

 

[Cyclonepride]

You seriously don't think that deaths wouldn't have been 2 or 3 times higher in places like NYC, Chicago, LA, etc if these measures weren't taken?

Cuomo estimated that 47% of people in the Bronx probably have had it already.

 

[GrappleCy]

I recognize that different parts of the US are at different stages of the curve and my comments were not in any way related to the situation in Iowa. However the data indicates that many states outside of the northeast have peaked in terms of reported deaths, especially some of the most populous states. You may feel there is going to be a second wave, but that is your analysis of the situation.

We gotta get through the first wave before worrying about if there will be a second.

 

[AuH2O]

What do you disagree with? If you look at the reported deaths per day from Covid 19 in the US it has been trending down since mid April. April 15th to be exact. This isn't an opinion, it's a statement of fact.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

The data is still really bumpy, but I'd say if you drew a line through the period including effect of current restrictions that's a pretty flat line, so maybe more of a plateau for a drawn out period is in the cards.

These projection work well when viruses are allowed to run their course through the community through normal activity and interactions. That gets really hard to do when you have unprecedented, yet temporary action taken to interrupt the spread. Considering the estimated R0 for this thing and some of the antibody testing that project % actually infected, it seems almost impossible for there to now be a steep drop with no significant recurrence.

Odds are that we'll see either 1) a long, flattish curve for quite a while, or 2) a quick drop-off followed by a secondary peak. Considering lag from infection to death on average, this curve so far seems to follow business as usual (steep increase), deceleration and flattening due to limited ability for the virus to spread.

 

[NorthCyd]

Considering the estimated R0 for this thing and some of the antibody testing that project % actually infected, it seems almost impossible for there to now be a steep drop with no significant recurrence.

Not impossible if there is a seasonal component to the virus.

 

[knowlesjam]

Cuomo estimated that 47% of people in the Bronx probably have had it already.

Link???

The New York Antibody study released on 23 April showed a rough 11-14% positive rate, highest around 20% in New York City and under 4% outside of the city.

And even 50% is far short of the herd immunity percentage needed.

 

[Al_4_State]

Yeah, let's eliminate the myth that Sweden is the model of choice for the virus...Sweden has 10 million in population, biggest city is smaller than the St Louis Metro, 2nd biggest city is smaller than Omaha, and 3rd biggest is smaller than Des Moines. In fact, as a close comparison, let's look to North Carolina (10.5 million in population) and how it has done with COVID...11,000 cases/408 deaths in North Carolina vs. 21,500 cases/2,653 deaths in Sweden.

So yeah, there you go...are the lack of restrictions worth it to have double the case numbers and almost 7 times the deaths? And before you say...but Sweden is testing more, so more cases...nope. North Carolina is testing nearly 1,000 more per million than Sweden.

Sweden is simply fortunate that it's population density per square mile is the fourth lowest of any of the European countries...it compares very closely to Iowa, not North Carolina with 3.5 times the population density. So yes, Sweden certainly has freedom of movement...and many openings in their senior care facilities.

They have a much denser health care system too. A more robust health care system would have allowed us to take their approach.

 

[GrappleCy]

For anybody in one of the 77 counties - are restaurants actually opening up and getting customers today?

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

For anybody in one of the 77 counties - are restaurants actually opening up and getting customers today?

Warren county restaurants seem to be staying just take out for now. At least from what I’ve seen. I’m glad there are some good people out there trying to keep people social distancing.

 

[CycloneErik]

For anybody in one of the 77 counties - are restaurants actually opening up and getting customers today?

The one I work in is opening the dining room. I'll spend about 20 hours in there this weekend (and Monday).

 

[Al_4_State]

For anybody in one of the 77 counties - are restaurants actually opening up and getting customers today?

I’d say 75% staying closed to dine in from an informal social media scan.

 

[Cy$]

wtf is up with your guys' obsession with Sweden?

 

[Rabbuk]

wtf is up with your guys' obsession with Sweden?

It's supposedly a success story in ignoring corona

 

[mkadl]

Cuomo estimated that 47% of people in the Bronx probably have had it already.

You mentioned a politician and no one replied to blast you or the politician? Why are they scared of you?

 

[Urbandale2013]

We gotta get through the first wave before worrying about if there will be a second.

This is short sighted IMO. In an effort to minimize the impact you have to consider the situation as a whole. For example people keep pointing to New Zealand as a great response. Yeah they’ve killed it there but now they are extremely at risk for a second wave unless they stay isolated as a country until there is a vaccine. The optimal solution outside of a vaccine or treatment coming out is to plateau a bit below your resources. That allows you to treat everyone with the best possible care and limits any potential economic harm.

 

[mkadl]

The one I work in is opening the dining room. I'll spend about 20 hours in there this weekend (and Monday).

Our town has 10 restaurants only 1 is opening up some tables. Everyone else is take out, some curbside handed to you others are walk in and pick it up. I will not be doing any inside dining for the foreseeable future.

 

[06_CY]

wtf is up with your guys' obsession with Sweden?

Don't they have the hot blond women? Or is that the Swiss? Or both?