Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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madguy30

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As would the mortality rate for COVID 19.

I think the mortality rate for Covid will be lower overall than what we're seeing, but we're still risking over running medical centers and it's still not safe to visit family that's high risk.

There's been some stuff out there about how some med centers are fine and not even busy, but if vacationers are visiting places that don't have ample resources, and actively spreading it, that's pretty risky. Yeah, if they take precautions and follow general guidelines it lowers the risk, but I doubt that happens.

Georgia, who is like 12th in cases, is supposed to open up Friday in a bunch of areas. We'll see what happens there.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
I think the mortality rate for Covid will be lower overall than what we're seeing, but we're still risking over running medical centers and it's still not safe to visit family that's high risk.

There's been some stuff out there about how some med centers are fine and not even busy, but if vacationers are visiting places that don't have ample resources, and actively spreading it, that's pretty risky. Yeah, if they take precautions and follow general guidelines it lowers the risk, but I doubt that happens.

Georgia, who is like 12th in cases, is supposed to open up Friday in a bunch of areas. We'll see what happens there.


Ohio, according to interviews with their governor, is getting things lined up to relax their SIP soon.
 

Stewo

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Not the onion.


This literally what the National Guard is for. To assist states in extraordinary times. And the state didn't activate people to go to meat packing plants specifically. The "full time" piece means that they're on state active duty orders.
 
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madguy30

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Ohio, according to interviews with their governor, is getting things lined up to relax their SIP soon.

Yeah haven't seen anything new but it sounded like he's trying for May 1 to open up with restrictions. His explanations imo have at least been pretty clear and putting health first.

Actually what a place like Texas (?) is doing with having retail open by pick up is reasonable imo although when it comes to buying clothes I guess people just need to assume stuff will fit?

I'm assuming online or by phone will be something that's needed for a long time so perhaps training in action will help.

A thought: the 14 days with a descent in cases/day seemed OK at first, but then what happens if you have a huge drop every day for 12 days, and then on day 13, a small increase? Start over? Or did I read that wrong?
 

bawbie

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This literally what the National Guard is for. To assist states in extraordinary times. And the state didn't activate people to go to meat packing plants specifically. The "full time" piece means that they're on state active duty orders.

I know - and using them for expanded testing and contact tracing is a good idea (probably months late in fact) - but the headline is funny.
 
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madguy30

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Although early, the antibody tests are beginning to prove this to be true.

If those come widespread available and accessible I'm going to be so p*ssed if I didn't have it.
 

madguy30

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I know - and using them for expanded testing and contact tracing is a good idea (probably months late in fact) - but the headline is funny.

Has a bit of this kind of vibe.

giphy.gif
 

Stewo

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I know - and using them for expanded testing and contact tracing is a good idea (probably months late in fact) - but the headline is funny.
Up to this point, they've been mostly using their logistics/supply chain to deliver PPE and other items to hospitals, clinics, etc. They've also been setting tent systems up at hospitals.
 
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CycloneDaddy

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I know - and using them for expanded testing and contact tracing is a good idea (probably months late in fact) - but the headline is funny.
Glad you finally read the article to see what the Guard was being used for instead of trolling with a headline from some no named actor.
 

ricochet

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Although early, the antibody tests are beginning to prove this to be true.

Possibly, although isn't New York at .1% of the population now even if nobody else dies? That isn't a big number but I wouldn't call it minuscule either. There may environmental reasons why New York City is higher than the overall average and some might quarrel with their counting methods but calling it minuscule sounds like people pushing the "it's just the flu" talking points.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Possibly, although isn't New York at .1% of the population now even if nobody else dies? That isn't a big number but I wouldn't call it minuscule either. There may environmental reasons why New York City is higher than the overall average and some might quarrel with their counting methods but calling it minuscule sounds like people pushing the "it's just the flu" talking points.


There was one day that they added 4-5k deaths due to reclassification of them. So they thought they were one thing and then changed it to there was a chance so we will now call it that. That added a large number right there.
 

AuH2O

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As would the mortality rate for COVID 19.

It's all relative, I guess. But if you are using the same basis, fatality rate is an order of magnitude higher for COVID-19 in most places than the flu: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

For the flu, CDC tries to adjust numbers for underdetected when determining the CFR number that gets thrown out (say 0.1%), but those are still within hospitalizations. So when these fatality rates are quoted for influenza, they are not trying to figure out people that had the flu virus but were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms in that number. That's not in the method used for the fatality rates used for comparison.

I agree that using antibody tests and IFR is far more indicative, but the numbers used to state fatality rate for the flu through CDC method DO NOT do that. They are totally different bases.

So, no all data so far suggests that if you use the same basis, fatality rate for COVID-19 is much higher. The best case in South Korea with extensive testing and they did not overwhelm hospital resources the CFR was about 0.65% I believe. Keep in mind that denominator is likely much more inclusive than any flu CFR calculation, as in no situation are mass people that are not going to the doctor are being tested to see if they have the flu that I'm aware of.
 

Stewo

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Possibly, although isn't New York at .1% of the population now even if nobody else dies? That isn't a big number but I wouldn't call it minuscule either. There may environmental reasons why New York City is higher than the overall average and some might quarrel with their counting methods but calling it minuscule sounds like people pushing the "it's just the flu" talking points.
It's sort of a fine line. I'm not ready at all to say that the death rate is minuscule. But I'm also not convinced that this is the second coming of the Spanish Flu, either.

We had a bloated reaction to this thing from the get-go because it was unheard of and no one knew much about it. But as time had elapsed, we've started to see some patterns develop. We're learning that certain groups are far more susceptible than others, we're learning that substantially more people have had the virus than expected. Our knowledge is growing daily about this and the positive takeaway is that this very likely isn't going to be as devastating as thought even two weeks ago.
 

Clone83

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It's all relative, I guess. But if you are using the same basis, fatality rate is an order of magnitude higher for COVID-19 in most places than the flu: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

For the flu, CDC tries to adjust numbers for underdetected when determining the CFR number that gets thrown out (say 0.1%), but those are still within hospitalizations. So when these fatality rates are quoted for influenza, they are not trying to figure out people that had the flu virus but were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms in that number. That's not in the method used for the fatality rates used for comparison.

I agree that using antibody tests and IFR is far more indicative, but the numbers used to state fatality rate for the flu through CDC method DO NOT do that. They are totally different bases.

So, no all data so far suggests that if you use the same basis, fatality rate for COVID-19 is much higher. The best case in South Korea with extensive testing and they did not overwhelm hospital resources the CFR was about 0.65% I believe. Keep in mind that denominator is likely much more inclusive than any flu CFR calculation, as in no situation are mass people that are not going to the doctor are being tested to see if they have the flu that I'm aware of.
How is the bolded part true? My interpretation is that the number of flu cases the CDC estimates for the flu — whether medical treatment was sought or not — is based on hospitalizations and past experience (not “within” hospitalizations, not sure what you mean by this).

They (the experts) have a lot of experience with the flu and presumably are using their best methods and estimates for number of annual cases whether someone goes to the doctor or not.

Also, unlike what is known about CV, are there really any flu cases that are asymptomatic? I don’t know.

Presumably people exposed but who are carrying sufficient antibodies to the flu don’t get sick. But that seems different from what is meant for CV, where in asymptomatic cases, new antibodies are being formed as a result of a new virus, I would think, rather than already present.
 
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BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
How is the bolded part true? My interpretation is that the number of flu cases the CDC estimates for the flu is based on hospitalizations and past experience (not “within” hospitalizations, not sure what you mean by this).

They (the experts) have a lot of experience with the flu and presumably are using their best methods and estimates for number of annual cases whether someone goes to the doctor or not.

Also, unlike what is known about CV, are there really any flu cases that are asymptomatic? I don’t know.


The flu can also be asymptotic. All it takes for a disease to be one is to have a host that has the ability to fight it off. That person can carry it to others. H1N1 and the Spanish flu (thinking they may have been the same strain or close) are examples.
 

madguy30

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It's sort of a fine line. I'm not ready at all to say that the death rate is minuscule. But I'm also not convinced that this is the second coming of the Spanish Flu, either.

We had a bloated reaction to this thing from the get-go because it was unheard of and no one knew much about it. But as time had elapsed, we've started to see some patterns develop. We're learning that certain groups are far more susceptible than others, we're learning that substantially more people have had the virus than expected. Our knowledge is growing daily about this and the positive takeaway is that this very likely isn't going to be as devastating as thought even two weeks ago.

I took a look at a bunch of countries on the world o meter last night and most were on a downward trajectory albeit slowly...the information about how much of a lockdown they've had wasn't on there. We'll see what happens over the next month as many will start to reopen things.
 
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