Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

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Die4Cy

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Here is the review you are falling back on...there is absolutely nothing new here...Stanford simply states that the fatality rate based on case number is magnitudes higher than the fatality rate based on infected numbers. This was taken into account by the National Health Institute and is why the number of estimated deaths has fallen from 250,000 to around 70,000.

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/coronavirus-deadly-they-say

Bottom line is that CV kills people and eliminating restrictions will cause additional deaths as health systems get overwhelmed...see Italy...see Spain, see NYC.

No, not that one. This one:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
 

BillBrasky4Cy

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The ones in my area do, and I would say I'm far from anything metro. Then I guess they will go to shortened days. You can't just walk away from 1/4 of a year.

Between teacher contracts and other factors, I would be shocked if they move the start date up.
 

Cyclonepride

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If only we had a program in place that could save these small businesses.

Are you talking about the 2nd virus bill, or the coming 3rd or 4th (I'm losing track)? The latest one already ran out of money, and represented a stop gap at best. Good enough to overcome a shorter shutdown. Not good enough to weather a prolonged one, and certainly not a return for plague season, part 2.
 
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cycloneG

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Are you talking about the 2nd virus bill, or the coming 3rd or 4th (I'm losing track)? The latest one already ran out of money, and represented a stop gap at best. Good enough to overcome a shorter shutdown. Not good enough to weather a prolonged one, and certainly not a return for plague season, part 2.

Increased funding solves that problem.
 

Die4Cy

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If only we had a program in place that could save these small businesses.

Maybe we can get back to that once Congress funds the paycheck protection law they created, funded for a week, and then skipped town.

People aren't just some line item on a government spreadsheet.
 

UNIGuy4Cy

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Your take is really dumb and you should feel bad. If you think that no action is fine you are reading way too much right wing propaganda. I've read some stupid sh!t over the years but you may have just slid into the top 5.
Ok Dr Fauci
 

Althetuna

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What line of thinking do you subscribe to then? There is no scenario in which no one dies from this disease. Therefore, in every scenario there are going to be some number of people that die. Even in New Zealand, where they immediately closed all borders and implemented strong social distancing after learning of the virus, some people have still died from it. Much less than other countries, but some deaths.

We have to live in reality. While there are some developmental treatments and vaccine candidates which are showing promise, those are not guaranteed to work and there is no firm timeline for when they might be available. Absolute best case scenario for a vaccine is this fall/winter, per medical experts but that is like the one in a million absolute best case. Therapeutic treatments could possibly be ready sooner, but those treatments don't guarantee recovery.

The U.S. and World economies can't withstand several months of complete shutdown. Even if we could leave the economy "off" until a vaccine and magically flip the switch back on after the shutdown and put everything immediately back to normal (we can't) after the entire world was vaccinated, then we would start running out of essential supplies before the fall. We're already running low on chemical reagents needed to perform coronavirus tests, along with many other medicines due to supply chain issues.

This virus is out now. There was a chance it could have been contained had we taken stronger measures at the federal level back in January, but we didn't. It's in so many places we don't even know where it is. Our best strategy is to keep it at a slow burn. Develop and strictly enforce new workplace rules designed to keep infection rates low. Slowly release restrictions. Keep the economy running at least at a trickle for the next year or two until we have better treatment options.

As much as it may seem distasteful or disagree with your own personal morality, these are the decisions leaders have to make. All choices will cause deaths and loss of livelihood for Americans. As a leader, you have to decide which one causes the least hardship. I'm not saying this to try to make past decisions by Trump or Reynolds look better. I'm saying it because going forward even the best leaders in the world are going to be re-opening their countries prior to the development of a vaccine. Look at Germany, South Korea, Taiwan, and other European countries - they will soon (or have already) re-opened to some degree.

I don't disagree with anything you said. I completely agree leaders need to take the best data available and make the best decision possible, which I think we both agree is a nearly impossible decision to make. The problems I see:

1. There's a failure in testing which makes good decision-making even more difficult.

2a. There are groups actively working to end mitigation strategies now, including those in positions of power for their own self-interests. Leaders should be actively encouraging people to stay at home, now. Saying people can't stay sheltered in place for months, therefore the mitigation strategies should be ended is completely counter-productive.

2b. Pushing the idea people can't endure under the current circumstances belie the real courage and determination humans have. Londoners existed under the conditions of the Blitz for how long? We can do a lot. The problem is people are only willing to sacrifice to a certain point. That's where our leaders should step in. Encouraging Americans to forge on for the greater good. Sacrifice is easier when its shared.

3. Countries that have had the greatest success combating the virus, generally speaking, have been more pro-active and have populations that have been more compliant, which makes it easier to ease mitigation strategies.

4. I have little confidence leaders in this country will be able to re-institute effective mitigation strategies, if the rate of infection begins to increase again .

My points:
1. We can really slow the spread of the virus. It's not a forgo conclusion X amount of people have to die. The question is a matter of individual sacrifice.
2. Talk of reducing mitigation strategies now is foolish;especially when we don't have the tools or the leadership to keep the virus contained in some lesser form of mitigation
 

Althetuna

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I recently read that California was estimating 33% of restaurants would never reopen, and I believe that was assuming restrictions being lifted by May 1. I'm sure you will see similar numbers across other lines of business that have been forced to close. The economic price has already been huge, and is growing by the day. We simply can't afford to keep this lock down in place much longer. There isn't enough money out there to take care of all the people out of work.

And then there is the secondary issue of all the supply chain problems. It is hard to find cleaning supplies and toilet paper. Medical supplies are getting problematic, and we are seeing more and more reports now about meat and dairy disruptions, and concerns about labor for produce harvesting. We can't let this go much further. We have to have food and medicine available.

The supply chain issues are because the virus infected processing facilities. Reducing mitigation strategies would make that situation worse not better.
 

cycloneG

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Once again, that depends on how long this goes on (and whether similar measures return. Our solutions usually amount to papering over real problems, but the underlying rot persists.

Completely agree. The real problems in the country have been around for years. This pandemic is just shining a light on them.
 

Cyclonepride

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The supply chain issues are because the virus infected processing facilities. Reducing mitigation strategies would make that situation worse not better.

Not all of them are. The entire economy is filled with interdependencies that start to break down in situations where part of it is shuttered.

It will make for interesting and useful study for future emergencies. With the complete **** show that this one has been, we're lucky that the threat is only relatively dangerous.
 
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