Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

[Statefan10]

Of course confirmed cases is a function of tests, but it's also a function of people actually getting the disease, so for predictive purposes it's about all we have.

The problem is looking at deaths and hospitalization vs. total population is worthless when the disease is in it's early stages. By the time it becomes a meaningful number, there's not really much more need to predict anything anymore, at least within that same region. I do agree, though areas that appear to be further in the process can give some idea of what to expect based on deaths and hospitalization vs. total population of a region. However, population density, action taken, demographics also play a big role, so that makes comparisons across regions more difficult.

People are using hospitalizations and deaths vs. confirmed cases because confirmed cases is the best we have, unfortunately. I agree that positive vs. negative tests is potentially a useful number. Similar problem, though, unless a high percentage of people being tested have had confirmed contact with someone that tested positive I don't think it tells us much about transmittability.

The fact that it's in over half of our counties now shows how widespread this issue is. I think the total number of confirmed cases is not anything to overreact about, but it's also not something you can completely dismiss. As that number goes up, so does hospitalization most likely. The important thing is for the percentage of hospitalized be at a good amount or for it to keep lowering. If our positive cases start doubling as well as our hospitalized patients, we're in trouble.

Overwhelming our healthcare system is the #1 issue here.

 

[Acylum]

You are right, hospitalizations are the real thing to look at from a "how bad is this situation" perspective. Nobody should be in a panic over the actual positive test numbers.....it's here, we've been mixing it around the population too well for too long, and numbers will increase.

I'm not sure on the scope of the assumed number already infected though....just don't know. Due to testing logistics and complete lack of symptoms in a certain percentage of infection, we certainly haven't ID'd every single infection.....be great if many many millions have already been unknowingly infected and possess some immunity.

It'd be great to have the capability to test 10,000+ randomly selected people in Iowa that have been healthy and have had no symptoms. The closest we can probably come is to look at wherever the highest amount of testing of outwardly healthy people has been done: South Korea. As of March 20, they had done 316,664 tests with 8,652 cases: 2.73% positive. But even that likely wasn't true random sampling: some/many may have been selected due to symptoms or contact tracing of positive tests.

Those numbers are also based simply on detection of the virus. Antibody tests will eventually help figure out about how many people responded to an infection, even if they didn't have signs or get tested.

I've heard a lot of people saying something like they had a bad cold in early January or their co-worker was coughing back in December and tested negative for influenza.....this of course leads to "maybe it was COVID"....has anyone seen data on testing of retrospective samples to attempt to show how long the virus was in the US prior to the first reported case? I haven't, but I'm curious....

We’re still under 600,000 confirmed world-wide. I just don’t think that many people have been exposed yet.

 

[Statefan10]

We’re still under 600,000 confirmed world-wide. I just don’t think that many people have been exposed yet.

I think over the course of the next year, a large percentage will get this virus. A huge majority of that percentage will recover from it and be fine and it'll get much easier to treat as drugs start being developed and the vaccine is created.

 

[Die4Cy]

You are right, hospitalizations are the real thing to look at from a "how bad is this situation" perspective. Nobody should be in a panic over the actual positive test numbers.....it's here, we've been mixing it around the population too well for too long, and numbers will increase.

I'm not sure on the scope of the assumed number already infected though....just don't know. Due to testing logistics and complete lack of symptoms in a certain percentage of infection, we certainly haven't ID'd every single infection.....be great if many many millions have already been unknowingly infected and possess some immunity.

It'd be great to have the capability to test 10,000+ randomly selected people in Iowa that have been healthy and have had no symptoms. The closest we can probably come is to look at wherever the highest amount of testing of outwardly healthy people has been done: South Korea. As of March 20, they had done 316,664 tests with 8,652 cases: 2.73% positive. But even that likely wasn't true random sampling: some/many may have been selected due to symptoms or contact tracing of positive tests.

Those numbers are also based simply on detection of the virus. Antibody tests will eventually help figure out about how many people responded to an infection, even if they didn't have signs or get tested.

I've heard a lot of people saying something like they had a bad cold in early January or their co-worker was coughing back in December and tested negative for influenza.....this of course leads to "maybe it was COVID"....has anyone seen data on testing of retrospective samples to attempt to show how long the virus was in the US prior to the first reported case? I haven't, but I'm curious....

Good post.

Due to the transmissibile nature of COVID, something that is "known" at this point, ERs and ICUs would have been overrun by Christmas if it were here to the degree that people believe it was back then.

There are probably hundreds of viruses that will cause the symptoms that were common this winter and almost all of them will result in a negative test for influenza.

And while at some point after we get out of the crisis stage we are going to find out that a ton more people were exposed in the past month and had no issues, this "I was sick, and it wasn't influenza, so it was probably coronavirus" doesn't make a whole lot of sense if it was December or January..

 

[Clonefan32]

bad timing to start CF pickup basketball again?

In my pickup basketball experience no one gets within 6 feet of each other anyway.

 

[simply1]

In my pickup basketball experience no one gets within 6 feet of each other anyway.

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

Exactly. People are welcome to come fish at my pond, easily enough room to enjoy fishing while still maintaining proper distancing.

So you're saying we could catch something other than COVID-19 there?

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

Check out this list. Bottom of the page is Ames
https://kxno.iheart.com/featured/ce...nts-with-to-go-curbside-and-delivery-service/

Not updated though. Mucky Duck has been closed for at least a few days.

 

[Acylum]

I think over the course of the next year, a large percentage will get this virus. A huge majority of that percentage will recover from it and be fine and it'll get much easier to treat as drugs start being developed and the vaccine is created.

That appears to be the plan anyway.

 

[knowlesjam]

Any churches or local bars that are doing fish?

All of our churches have shut down fish fries until next Lent. It's the whole 10 person rule here in Omaha that pretty much ensured that none could accomplish the fry on any sort of a scale to be usable.

 

[isufbcurt]

So you're saying we could catch something other than COVID-19 there?

Yes, bass, crappie, catfish, and blue gill.

 

[RealisticCy]

Good post.

Due to the transmissibile nature of COVID, something that is "known" at this point, ERs and ICUs would have been overrun by Christmas if it were here to the degree that people believe it was back then.

There are probably hundreds of viruses that will cause the symptoms that were common this winter and almost all of them will result in a negative test for influenza.

And while at some point after we get out of the crisis stage we are going to find out that a ton more people were exposed in the past month and had no issues, this "I was sick, and it wasn't influenza, so it was probably coronavirus" doesn't make a whole lot of sense if it was December or January..

Agreed. Genetic analysis of the virus, with known/projected mutation rates, would look vastly different than they currently do if the virus has been here for much longer than we currently think.

Also agreed on the many other viruses point: 3700 people in Iowa have been deemed worthy of a test for COVID recently due to some combinations of symptoms/factors, and even they were negative for the virus. So by definition, a certain percentage of the stories we've heard about those that have had symptoms and have not been tested would be negative as well....their symptoms would be due to something different.

 

[DSMCy]

Which Raygun shirt is that?

Edit: Nevermind, got it
https://www.raygunsite.com/products/this-is-my-fighting-covid-19-shirt

 

[simply1]

Yes, bass, crappie, catfish, and blue gill.

Hi friend

 

[BCClone]

Parks in our town including the tiny little park in our subdivision all closed and taped off.

Our mayor just said they are closed off, nothing else has been done. Maybe he lost his job again is patroling them? He has a tendency to bounce jobs lately and nobody wants to be mayor in this town, so most win by default.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Her fired up answer there was actually really good and well reasoned. A little fire from her isn't a bad thing here...

 

[cyclonespiker33]

Yes, bass, crappie, catfish, and blue gill.

So would I need a fishing license for this pond?

 

[Cyched]

Adding on to my Facebook rant, I generally like KCCI, but they've gone full clickbait mode on coronavirus stories.

 

[BCClone]

Looks like today could be similar to yesterday numbers wise.

 

[jsb]

Looks like today could be similar to yesterday numbers wise.

Today's numbers have been released. They are quite a bit higher.