You're awesome! Your baseball knowledge is impeccable. This thread is lucky to have you. Thank you sir!
MLB: ***Official 2019 Chicago Cubs Season Thread***
- Thread starter Cyched
- Start date
Let’s recap the things I’ve said that people on here have problems with
- The Cubs are not a top five team, they are much closer to a middle of the pack team than an elite team
- The Cubs are not serious title contenders
- The Cubs have very real scouting or development issues in the minors and they are going to pay the price for it very soon
- Because of that, the Cubs title window is basically closed which is shocking considering where the franchise was in 2016
What in here is inaccurate?
Nothing at all. I'm shocked you're not running an organization yet. Your time is coming very soon, just hang on.
I get that it sucks, I thought the Cubs would have a much larger window of contention too but it is what it is.
Yeah well like I've said all along... You just got to get to the playoffs, which the Cubs are very much in contention of. You can continue to try and predict the future with negativity. I'll choose to stay optimistic. Two separate thoughts processes. Doesn't make either one of us wrong. What you need to do is stop being a douche to people who disagree with you and like to be optimistic rather then pessimistic.
They damn near got me to football season, so I'm willing to let go at this point and move on. Joe needs to go and there's no one on this roster not named Javy, Wilson or Kris that shouldn't be up for grabs.
Cubs have to address a lot of issues this offseason but after looking at the numbers, I think they really struggle with no team speed, too many strikeouts/GIDP, and poor defense. The Cubs have 7 players on pace to strikeout 100+ times and three on pace to strikeout 150+ times. Strikeouts are the worst out you can take because you can’t advance runners and you don’t make the opposing defense make a play. The Cubs only have 34 SB on the year which is a theme in Joe Maddon’s tenure as manager—-they’ve never had above 52 in a year.
Last night, that defense was atrocious—-I think even an average SS or 2B makes those three plays in the 9th and the Cubs win. Javy was obviously out but it’s just a theme of this year’s team—-guys playing over their head and out of position in key spots.
Last night, that defense was atrocious—-I think even an average SS or 2B makes those three plays in the 9th and the Cubs win. Javy was obviously out but it’s just a theme of this year’s team—-guys playing over their head and out of position in key spots.
I can't get over what a colossal failure the last 2 years have been.
Think about what you had in 2016, a year they were expected to contend, but maybe not win it all. You had Kris Bryant who was the NL MVP at age 24. Javy blossoming into a super-star at age 23. You had the promise of guys like Addison, Schwarber Almora and Wilson, all coming up and making big marks in their first season or two. Rizzo the starting 1B for the All-Star team at 27. Hendricks pitching like an ace, Lester locked up long term. Not to mention guys like Eloy, Torres (part of 2016) and Happ in the farm system. The sky was seriously the limit.
Somehow, guys haven't progressed and the money has been tied upon guys who have way underperformed. Somehow in the course of 2 years we went from what's described above to a team with a bunch of so-so pieces and no farm system.
Think about what you had in 2016, a year they were expected to contend, but maybe not win it all. You had Kris Bryant who was the NL MVP at age 24. Javy blossoming into a super-star at age 23. You had the promise of guys like Addison, Schwarber Almora and Wilson, all coming up and making big marks in their first season or two. Rizzo the starting 1B for the All-Star team at 27. Hendricks pitching like an ace, Lester locked up long term. Not to mention guys like Eloy, Torres (part of 2016) and Happ in the farm system. The sky was seriously the limit.
Somehow, guys haven't progressed and the money has been tied upon guys who have way underperformed. Somehow in the course of 2 years we went from what's described above to a team with a bunch of so-so pieces and no farm system.
I'd put Rizzo as a near untouchable too. Statistically he's 6th best WAR 1B in all of MLB this year and hard to argue with you'd be able to easily replace his production and glove at 1B. usually good for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI with a .280-.290 BA and OBP over .385.
Definitely thing some big changes are coming after this season starting with letting Maddon walk and basically bringing in a whole new bullpen. Can't keep trotting out this same lineup of position players every day and expect better results, they are what they are at this point. OF and 2B really are the only positions there is room to bring in impact bats. Personally I wouldn't mind trying to resign Castellanos at this point and then finding a taker for Schwarber so they can bring in another impact bat in the OF.
Let's face it, no one is taking Heyward or Darvish in a trade without the Cubs eating a significant portion of their contracts or taking back another underperforming player with a bad contract so I'd rather have them playing for the Cubs if we are going to be paying them. Heyward has been a serviceable starting OF and is probably having his best season at the plate since he joined the Cubs. Yes he's not hitting like a $22 mil OF should but at this point he is what he is and you just have to look past the contract. Darvish is finally healthy and has really pitched well in July and August so maybe there is still some hope for him going forward. Check out his splits, he's only walked 2 batters in 7 starts dating back to July 3. He's probably been the best starter in the rotation during that stretch if you compare what the rest of the rotation has done in that same time frame.
For as good of a run as Theo had 2012-2015, the moves he has made since then have been every bit as bad. And with the Cubs on-going failure (8 years and running) to develop any sort of quality, homegrown pitching it's going to get worse before it gets better.
The long-lasting impact of the front office will be a positive thing though as they have (along with the Ricketts) completely upgraded the facilities and infrastructure of the organization at every single level. The Cubs have better international training facilities, better spring training facilities, better minor league affiliates, completely renovated Wrigley field with lots of new revenue streams. There also isn't a 100 year curse hanging over this team anymore.. The Cubs can compete with any team in the majors, they just may need a new front office to do it.
I'm not on that train yet that we need new front office management. They turned Hendry's mess into a World Series winner in short time so that wasn't all just luck there was a lot of strategy to get to that point which was basically gutting anything of value from the big league team to build the team that won in 2016. Yes they have made some bad signings and trades but every front office does, you can't hit a home run on every move you make there is always risk involved. However, I do believe that this offseason is VERY crucial to the immediate future of this team. A lot of money comes off the payroll and how they choose to spend that as well as possibly moving on from some players that just haven't developed like they had hoped like Schwarber, Almora, and Russell. Also they likely will be hiring a new manager because at this point I just don't see how they bring Maddon back shy of winning it all this year and even then I am starting to wonder if Joe really wants to be here anymore too. If they wanted to keep him beyond this season they would have extended his contract by now.
How the front office does this offseason may change my opinion if they just sit on their hands again and go the cheap route or overpay for guys they shouldn't. I agree with you on pretty much everything else you said, identifying and developing top tier pitching is always a challenge and sometimes luck, but when you look back over the years you have a point most of the pitchers that did come up through the farm system were guys that were drafted by other organizations and acquired in a trade such as Kyle Hendricks who came over from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster trade Theo's first year in 2012.
I have a question from a non-Cubs fan from the outside looking in: is there any chance Theo leaves to go build the next team at some point? He got the Sox over their drought, then repeated it with the Cubs. Any chance he leaves to go try it again with some other team (I have no idea who it would be). Or is he with the Cubs for the long haul?
Not suggesting it would happen, I just don't follow closely enough to know what he's said in this regard.
He's said he has no plans on working past 50 and his current deal will expire when he's 47 (he's 45 now). Best bet is that he rides out this contract and retires. He's a millionaire and a sure fire hall of famer that has said that he doesn't love the grind.
I’m not sure what’s left for him to accomplish? The Red Sox and Cubs droughts were the most infamous in baseball, and he killed both “curses” pretty handily.
He’s earned his retirement.
I don’t think he will be with the Cubs that much longer but I also don’t think he leaves for another team, I think he moves on to a non baseball related venture. Front offices have changed a lot since the early 2000s, when he was with the Red Sox, he was an Ivy League guy going up against a lot of front offices led by former players, teams with nonexistent analytic depts. Now pretty much every front office is staffed with several Ivy League grads and a whole team of analytic analysts. A lot of the loopholes he used to build the Red Sox and Cubs have closed too, he can’t just outspend other teams for international players because he worked for a big market team, the penalties for doing that have drastically increased. I think a lot of the edge that he once had is gone.
Theo had the Midas touch for a good run. Fleecing Billy Bean for Addison Russell. Getting Arrietta from my O's and letting him throw his cutter. (something the O's were reluctant to do) and the Zobrist and Hamels trades have been solid.
Signing Hayward for that deal was cringe worthy
The Darvish deal was bad timing as they needed a pitcher and it was him or Arrietta. Neither was a long term solution.
The Eloy trade hurt a lot.
The Torres trade brought a world series so that was worth it.
The window is closing with free agents and pitching needs arising. Pitching is expensive and you cant afford 3-4 starters in an offseason.
Schwarber is still a DH and that will never change. The loyalty to keeping him on the roster is probably hurting the team. They need to get Happs value up and trade him too.
The Cardinals and Brewers both have good farm systems too. Cubs have too much overall talent to not compete for at least a wildcard.
Signing Hayward for that deal was cringe worthy
The Darvish deal was bad timing as they needed a pitcher and it was him or Arrietta. Neither was a long term solution.
The Eloy trade hurt a lot.
The Torres trade brought a world series so that was worth it.
The window is closing with free agents and pitching needs arising. Pitching is expensive and you cant afford 3-4 starters in an offseason.
Schwarber is still a DH and that will never change. The loyalty to keeping him on the roster is probably hurting the team. They need to get Happs value up and trade him too.
The Cardinals and Brewers both have good farm systems too. Cubs have too much overall talent to not compete for at least a wildcard.
Well you also forget that Theo is only part of the front office, Jed Hoyer is actually the GM. He's signed through 2021 as well.
What else could Theo do besides maybe take over an organization that has never won a World Series? I would guess he finishes out his contract and moves on to something besides baseball if he doesn't get extended by the Cubs again.
I think that with the right moves this current core of players can compete for a World Series but it would mean Theo and Jed finally moving on from guys they drafted or brought in which I think part of that is stubbornness on their part to admit it may just not happen for guys like Schwarber here and they missed their chance to cash in on him when his value was at it's peak a couple years ago. I'm sure they are afraid that if they traded someone like him then he'd finally hit his stride on another team and they'd feel like they didn't wait long enough but I think you are kind of at the point with this roster you can't waste your best years of Rizzo, Javy, Bryant, and Contreras hoping other guys will finally break out too.
The rotation isn't that young so it will be interesting to see how they fill Hamels spot but Lester is on the decline at 35, Darvish is 32, Quintana 30 and Hendricks 29. Hendricks and Darvish are both signed through 2023, Lester through 2021, and Q they likely will pick up his $10.5 mil option but he's a free agent after next year then so they basically will be looking to replace 1 starter each of the next 3 off seasons. They still have a year left of Chatwood too which I hope is not their solution to SP5 next year and I don't think Alzolay is ready to be a regular big league starter yet, especially with his injury problems.
What else could Theo do besides maybe take over an organization that has never won a World Series? I would guess he finishes out his contract and moves on to something besides baseball if he doesn't get extended by the Cubs again.
I think that with the right moves this current core of players can compete for a World Series but it would mean Theo and Jed finally moving on from guys they drafted or brought in which I think part of that is stubbornness on their part to admit it may just not happen for guys like Schwarber here and they missed their chance to cash in on him when his value was at it's peak a couple years ago. I'm sure they are afraid that if they traded someone like him then he'd finally hit his stride on another team and they'd feel like they didn't wait long enough but I think you are kind of at the point with this roster you can't waste your best years of Rizzo, Javy, Bryant, and Contreras hoping other guys will finally break out too.
The rotation isn't that young so it will be interesting to see how they fill Hamels spot but Lester is on the decline at 35, Darvish is 32, Quintana 30 and Hendricks 29. Hendricks and Darvish are both signed through 2023, Lester through 2021, and Q they likely will pick up his $10.5 mil option but he's a free agent after next year then so they basically will be looking to replace 1 starter each of the next 3 off seasons. They still have a year left of Chatwood too which I hope is not their solution to SP5 next year and I don't think Alzolay is ready to be a regular big league starter yet, especially with his injury problems.
I agree with the vast majority of this, the Heyward deal, I don't think was terrible if he produced as expected. No one could have predicted that he would go from putting up 110+ OPS+ to an OPS+ of 68. If he had kept up producing as expected at the plate with gold glovish RF defense, that contract would have been just fine especially considering all the cheap, young talent on those teams.
If the problem with Schwarber was that he was just a poor fielder with an elite bate, I would be fine with that, but his bat is nothing special either. He's got an OPS+ of 105 this year. He's only a slightly above average hitter, Jorge Soler has an OPS+ of 132 for comparison.
I would also disagree that the Cardinals and Brewers currently have good farm systems.
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