We are projected (and prior to the Bolton news, so this projection would basically assume he would not be eligible at this point) as the #48 team in the country next year.
Oregon State is projected as the #85 team in the country.
ISU is projected as #7 in the Big 12; OSU is projected as #8 in the Pac-12.
ISU = 112.1 points scored per 100, 97.5 points given up per 100
OSU = 110.1 points scored per 100, 100.4 points given up per 100
ISU = +14.6 per 100
OSU = +9.7 per 100
That puts Iowa State ahead by 4.9, which you multiply by ~72 possessions per college game, making Iowa State roughly a 3.5 point favorite on a neutral court.
I do not know what kind of reputation the "Beaver Den" has, but probably not a strong one. This being even or Iowa State by one seems pretty reasonable.
Bolton probably adds 1.5 to 2.5 points to our net efficiency above.