Lineups & more!

EarthIsMan

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More of a data dump or sharing of information than anything else because I'm not ready to tie out most of these numbers to plausible theories that my eyes have seen.
https://cyclonefanatic.com/2019/02/haaland-lineups-and-more/

Interesting stuff. I was curious about the individual performance across lineups to get some sense of value (or interchangeability) each player has regardless of what lineup. To do this I averaged the OFF, DEF, and EM of each player across all lineups in which they occurred, and then calculated variance to determine the significance or consistency of that average.
upload_2019-2-28_21-10-51.png Not surprisingly, Babb's offensive efficiency transfers across all lineups in which he plays (he also plays in 8/9 lineups) as supported by the lowest variance. Babb may not average the highest offensive efficiency across lineups, but his presence is very stable offensively. Interestingly, while only present in 3 lineups, Lard also has very high defensive efficiency and very low defensive variance- meaning his defense transfers well regardless of lineup.

Since you play both defense and offense in basketball, the average efficiency margin (with variance bars) of each player across all available lineups in which they occurred is probably a little more practically meaningful than the above. Take a look:
upload_2019-2-28_21-23-53.png
Most people will probably make the hasty conclusion that Jacobson should see less playing time, but I will point out that Jacobson is present in the most defensive efficient lineup (Shayok, Babb, Tyrese, Talen, Jacobson) and the most offensive efficient lineup (Shayok, Babb, Tyrese, Jacobson, Lindell). It just seems like there are some lineups with Jacobson that don't fit or there is some offensive tradeoff with defense (or vice versa).

Lastly, on average all lineups with Babb or Lard have the highest efficiency margin and lowest variance which seems like they are best bets to me and players of the highest value. Also, I wonder why we haven't seem much of the Shayok, Babb, Tyrese, Talen, Lard lineup- maybe that one will be unleashed as a secret weapon at some point.

p.s. This is small sample size theater so proceed with caution. Another caveat, the variance measurements should be considered proxies not absolutes since I didn't have access to all of the data. Also once could argue that averages should be weighted by % of possessions in which they occur. Take it as you will.
 
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AttakOfDaClones

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So let me get this straight... we play our starting lineup 32% of the time and our best lineup (by a good amount) only 5% of the time? This is just confirmation of what everyone can see. Wigginton and Lard should be starting for Haliburton and Jacobson. The idea Wigginton hasn’t gotten back into the starting lineup after getting hurt is already messed up. Now we have stats to completely legitimize the complaints about our lineup.

Change the lineup, Steve! There is no excuse!
 
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Dingus

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Great work; really interesting. Our 3 lineups where the EM is negative, and 4 of our 5 worst lineups have Jacobson as the F/C.

I’d be curious to see how the starting lineup fares in the first 5 min of the games vs. the rest of the game. Beginning of games seem to often be low scoring both ways.
 

JM4CY

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Can someone synthesize all that info for us math mortals?
 

Cyclonepride

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So let me get this straight... we play our starting lineup 32% of the time and our best lineup (by a good amount) only 5% of the time? This is just confirmation of what everyone can see. Wigginton and Lard should be starting for Haliburton and Jacobson. The idea Wigginton hasn’t gotten back into the starting lineup after getting hurt is already messed up. Now we* have stats to completely legitimize the complaints about our lineup.

Change the lineup, Steve! There is no excuse!

*you
 
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AttakOfDaClones

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I am the first fan you have heard complain about Wigginton and Lard not starting? “We” is appropriate to use in that sentence, as we are many.

What stood out most to me in that great article: who starts absolutely matters. It matters more than I thought it did before I read the article. Our starters are on the floor together 32% of the time and our next most frequent lineup is only on the floor 13% of the time. Right now we do not start our best five players and we only play our best lineup, which happens to have our best 5 players, ~2 minutes a game. 13 minutes to 2 minutes!

This is not about bashing Prohm. I truly like Prohm and am happy to have him. However, this is compelling and I think conclusive data which supports what my eyes and gut have been telling me since January.

If tomorrow Haaland writes a deep dive data analysis which concludes Babb is the wrong guy to be throwing it in on inbounds plays, then I will start to become suspicious of my own reality like Jim Carrey in the Truman Show.
 
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MJ271

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I am the first fan you have heard complain about Wigginton and Lard not starting? “We” is appropriate to use in that sentence, as we are many.

What stood out most to me in that great article: who starts absolutely matters. It matters more than I thought it did before I read the article. Our starters are on the floor together 32% of the time and our next most frequent lineup is only on the floor 13% of the time. Right now we do not start our best five players and we only play our best lineup, which happens to have our best 5 players, ~2 minutes a game. 13 minutes to 2 minutes!

This is not about bashing Prohm. I truly like Prohm and am happy to have him. However, this is compelling and I think conclusive data which supports what my eyes and gut have been telling me since January.

If tomorrow Haaland writes a deep dive data analysis which concludes Babb is the wrong guy to be throwing it in on inbounds plays, then I will start to become suspicious of my own reality like Jim Carrey in the Truman Show.

You really can't call data that has sample sizes like this conclusive. Haaland admits as much. Does it give evidence to test out the theory some more? Definitely. I do think that the fact of who the players in that lineup are gives some credence to the idea that it might be the best lineup. Prohm could start out by subbing in Lindell and Lard for Tyrese and Jacobson. That would get that lineup some more minutes.
 

Cyclonepride

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I am the first fan you have heard complain about Wigginton and Lard not starting? “We” is appropriate to use in that sentence, as we are many.

What stood out most to me in that great article: who starts absolutely matters. It matters more than I thought it did before I read the article. Our starters are on the floor together 32% of the time and our next most frequent lineup is only on the floor 13% of the time. Right now we do not start our best five players and we only play our best lineup, which happens to have our best 5 players, ~2 minutes a game. 13 minutes to 2 minutes!

This is not about bashing Prohm. I truly like Prohm and am happy to have him. However, this is compelling and I think conclusive data which supports what my eyes and gut have been telling me since January.

If tomorrow Haaland writes a deep dive data analysis which concludes Babb is the wrong guy to be throwing it in on inbounds plays, then I will start to become suspicious of my own reality like Jim Carrey in the Truman Show.

What if the success of those later lineups is tied to how he has guys enter off the bench?
 
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Dingus

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What if the success of those later lineups is tied to how he has guys enter off the bench?
That's certainly possible. But you have to admit it's a bit of a cop out- you could say the same thing if a lineup of walkons and deep bench was trotted out to start the game and then the usual starters subbed in for them after a few minutes and did well.

Again, not to rag on anyone but for comparison- average EM, weighted for possessions played:
Jacobson: 0.05 (595 possessions)
Lard: 0.154 (254 possessions)

Now I certainly think the starting lineup's numbers might be dragged down as the first 5 minutes of games always seems to be the lowest scoring (although I have nothing to back this up). And may not be actionable as long as Lard's PT is limited by foul trouble. But it is telling.

Lard also has the highest ORtg-DRtg on the team in conference play (close 2nd is Halliburton, both way above everyone else), and highest Win shares/40.
 
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AttakOfDaClones

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What if the success of those later lineups is tied to how he has guys enter off the bench?

Pretty weak speculation. I think this is the closest thing I am going to get to you agreeing with me or anyone who may criticize something our coach does.

The point seems moot after today. We just played our worst game of the year on March 2nd. It seems we have much bigger problems at hand than our lineup. We very well may end up .500 in the conference after what I saw today.