Local craft beer is what is hurting larger craft beers national distribution numbers, similar to what craft beer has been doing to BMC for several years. People are choosing to drink the good beers made near them that they can “see and touch” rather than supporting a national brand you can get almost anywhere. You’ll see a decline in national craft numbers perhaps but they in general will continue to take away from big beer along with small local breweries helping that out. One large national brewery has seen its largest gains in recent years in its carbonated water sales and not in beer sales. Beer styles and their popularity will come and go but in the end no matter what good products must be made no matter what scale.
Yup. The larger craft brewers are getting squeezed by the local guys big time. IMO, freshness is the biggest reason. If it's not a BA stout, but better be fresh.
Lagunitas, Founder's, Bell's, and Sierra Nevada are large craft brewers that I find still make excellent products that I regularly drink, but that's about it at that scale.