UNI vs. ISU - thoughts/predictions?

[UNIPantherFan]

Hi all, I come in peace. I usually only make my way over to Cyclone Fanatic a few times a year, but certainly try to do so before we meet up in football or basketball (great job in football this year, BTW, hope you can beat Memphis and head into the offseason on a high note).

What can you tell me about ISU? Obviously you guys lost a lot from the last time we met 2 years ago (Morris, Niang, Long, McKay, Thomas, etc.) and I don't recognize nearly as many names as I normally do. It looks like Wigginton is living up to expectations so far as a top recruit. I'm having a difficult time figuring out what to expect out of ISU this game and this season looking over your schedule. Lost 2 games early (UW-Milwaukee at home?) but looks like you've been playing really well since then and have handed Boise State their only loss so far this season. Thoughts/predictions for this game and this season?

For a preview of UNI, they check all the boxes of a good UNI team of the past. Slow the game down, play good defense, good shot selection. We struggled last year because we simply couldn't hit shots, didn't defend at a high enough level, and couldn't rebound. We are greatly improved in the last two areas, shooting can get better as we still tend to have some 4-5 minute scoring droughts from time-to-time. Bennett Koch is the leading scorer and UNI will primarily run their offense through him and Klint Carlson in the post. If Carlson can make some outside shots to space out the ISU defense, I like UNI's chances in this one. The "sparkplug" to UNI this year has been true freshman guard Tywhon Pickford who is averaging 9.1 PPG and 10.1 RPG this season. The Panthers have been tested with a tough non-conference schedule, going 6-2 against D1 opponents. Their only losses have been to Villanova (currently ranked #1) and North Carolina (currently ranked #7). They've beaten some solid teams as well: SMU, NC State, UNLV, UT-Arlington.

Overall, I expect this to be a close hard fought game and I think it will come down to who controls the tempo. If UNI can keep this game in the 60s, I like their chances. If its in the 70s or 80s, I think ISU wins.

Either way, good luck the rest of the season after Saturday's match-up. I'm hoping for a good game with no injuries for either team.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I expect UNI to make it a half court struggle. I'll take ISU 69-68, but I'd also call that our best win to date if we can get it done.

 

[CyTwins]

Good guards, not getting much production out of our bigs. Have a big guy off the bench in Lard who is a lot like McKay was. We moved Babb over to PG after the first two games and have played much better since then but haven't faced much competition outside of Boise. Coach Jake owns us and we always suck at the Well so I'll go UNI by 7. Pickford is going to special

 

[Malone]

I expect UNI to make it a half court struggle. I'll take ISU 69-68, but I'd also call that our best win to date if we can get it done.

Really going out on a limb there.

 

[JP4CY]

Unfortunately I think UNI takes it. Gets into double digits and we keep chipping away but can't get into it enough. 72-64 Panthers.

 

[ClonesFTW]

What is KenPom predicting?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Really going out on a limb there.

I see you didn't climb the tree at all.

 

[3TrueFans]

I don't know anything about UNI so I think we win by 47.

 

[Malone]

I see you didn't climb the tree at all.

81-64 UNI. UNI is easily the best team we will have played, we have barely been tested, and UNI has played two of the best teams in the country. I'm not held back by homerism. Don't think this will be a dogfight, but a blowout.

 

[Sigmapolis]

What is KenPom predicting?

KP has Iowa State with a +10.92 efficiency rating (that is, we would score around 11 points more than the average team over the course of 100 possessions).

He has UNI at +7.74.

Given this is a neutral court and there are usually 60-80 possessions per game in a college basketball game, that would put us around a 2.0 or 2.5 point favorite.

I have a feeling this one is going to be close -- last possession/can go either way sort.

 

[Playboi Carti]

Shooters shoot, give me the clones by 6. Lindell and Jackson combine for 45 points

 

[ca4cy]

Babb's move to point guard coincides with ISU's 7 game winning streak, and while we can't completely forget about the first 2 games we lost, we are a different team with him at the point. We have to assume our transition opportunities will be few and far between. Some of ISU's best teams have struggled to dictate tempo against UNI in the past and I don't see this one shaping up any differently. With that in mind, our ability to be patient in the half court and make the extra pass vs. lobbing up the first open look we get will have a lot to do with the outcome of this one. Solomon Young remains a solid post presence and Lard is an emerging talent with all the potential in the world. His minutes are largely dictated by foul trouble. We've got one player on concussion protocol and another with a stress fracture so we'll only go 8 deep. Wigginton is as good a freshman guard as we've seen in Ames in a long time. He can get to and finish at the rim, and his shooting has been better than expected. If he can get to the lane and Jackson can hit open looks created by he and Babb, we'll have a decent chance.

I don't take UNI lightly and anticipate this one coming down to the wire. It will take ISU's best all around game to date to get the W. I've only seen UNI play once this year. Is Carlson still rocking the man-bun? If so, somebody needs to care enough about him to let him know he looks like an idiot, and I'd say the same thing if he played for ISU.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

UNI is much better fundamentally and has faced much better competition, but I like the way we've been playing lately. Pickford is a fun player to watch, but so is Wigginton.

I'll say if we can avoid falling behind by double digits, we win 72-69. We're gonna need solid games from Brase and Solo.

 

[cyclonedave25]

If the last few years are an indicator, I’ll go with UNI winning by 3-5 pts, they then go on to lose 5-7 mind boggling games in a row, ISU peaks in February and wins the Big 12 Tourney again.

 

[UNIPantherFan]

Is Carlson still rocking the man-bun? If so, somebody needs to care enough about him to let him know he looks like an idiot, and I'd say the same thing if he played for ISU.

Haha. No, thank God. He cut that off before the 3rd or 4th game of the season.

 

[2forISU]

UNI. BJ owns ISU

 

[MartinCy]

81-64 UNI. UNI is easily the best team we will have played, we have barely been tested, and UNI has played two of the best teams in the country. I'm not held back by homerism. Don't think this will be a dogfight, but a blowout.

UNI is much better than expected and I've been really impressed with Koch's growth as well as Pickford's contributions for a freshmen guard. But saying UNI is easily the best team we have played is ridiculous.

 

[cyatheart]

81-64 UNI. UNI is easily the best team we will have played, we have barely been tested, and UNI has played two of the best teams in the country. I'm not held back by homerism. Don't think this will be a dogfight, but a blowout.

I don't think there is any way in hell UNI even gets to 70. They are going to play painfully slow, even slower then they usually do. And as a result, it's almost impossible for them to blow ISU out, will be a close and ugly, low percentage shooting, slow game. High 50's or 60's type game.

 

[rholtgraves]

UNI by 3.

 

[Doc]

I think the team that wants to play slow and is disciplined will almost always be able to control tempo by taking their time on offense, and by getting people back on D rather than going to the offensive boards. So UNI will be able to slow ISU down. The impact of somebody getting hot from 3 will be greater than usual because of the limited possessions. Kind of like the Oklahoma-ISU football game, every play will be magnified because of the low number of possessions.

ISU's half court offense is not great, so if we get some buckets off of TOs and offensive rebounds, it could potentially make up for a bad shooting night.

Right now, I'd pick UNI to win pretty confidently.