First, the absolute ceiling of any team is the most number of wins we can potentially win in a season - in our case, our absolute ceiling is 14-0.
What most people are talking about with their 5-7 wins and low-mid tier bowl games are realistic ceilings. Personally, I think our ceiling on any given year is 8-10 wins. People will probably think that's high, but let's just look at the last decade (obviously ignoring the Chizik years and the last 3 years).
2005: We finished that regular season 7-4, but realistically we should have finished that regular season 10-1 or even 11-0. 3 of those 4 losses were in OT, the 4th was to a bad Baylor team, ALL were due to the fact McCarney was too afraid to crush the throat of an opponent he had lying prone on the ground staring up at him because we might make a mistake going for the kill that would cost us the game.
2006: We finished the season 4-8. Nearly every preseason mag that year expected us to finish with at least 8 wins that season and compete with Nebraska for the North title. That obviously didn't happen, and 2006 in conjunction with 2005 (and perhaps the seasons before that) is what got McCarney fired.
2009: In Rhoads' first year we finished 7-6, including a bowl win. However, we were 1 blocked XP with 30 seconds left in the game from taking K-State into OT. Who knows - maybe we beat K-State in OT, maybe we don't. Maybe by beating K-State we end up in a different bowl against a team we don't match up as well against and lose, or we play another team like Minnesota and we win. Bottom line is 8 wins was possible in 2009.
2010: We finished 5-7. Had both the K-State game (we lost that game in the 4th quarter) and Nebraska game (we lost that game in OT on a failed fake XP conversion where the wind batted down the holder's pass) been wins, we finish at 7-5 and are in a bowl game. Just like the previous year, maybe we win the bowl game, maybe we don't - but once again, 8 wins was possible in 2010.
2011: We finished 6-7. Once again, K-State - we lost the game in the 4th quarter. We win that game, perhaps we are in a different bowl game against a team we match up better against than Rutgers, and maybe we win the bowl game. Once again, 8 wins was possible in 2011.
2012: We finished 6-7. Once again, K-State. Also, we lost to WVU in the 4th quarter. 8 wins was possible in the regular season alone. Perhaps a different bowl matchup besides a rematch against Tulsa gets us a bowl win. Bottom line, 9 wins was possible in 2012.
2013: We finished 3-9. UNI, Iowa, Texas, Texas Tech, and TCU were all games we could/should have won. Flip the ****** on all 5 of those games and we finish our regular season 8-4.
I already know cynics are going to say "woulda coulda shoulda" with this post and start talking about how many other games we could have lost those seasons. But you completely miss the point, which is mistakes, mental errors, bad coaching decisions, lack of killer instinct, and sometimes straight up bad luck led to TONS of missed opportunities for the Cyclones over the last decade. My point is over the last decade we've been better than the 5-7 win "ceiling" that we as fans have randomly assigned to our team when we really should be expecting 8-10 wins, even in an extremely difficult Big 12 conference, if we would just play mistake-free football most of the time.