Didn't you crown Kansas champs after they beat Texas though? Before we lost to Tech?
Let the race begin...
- Thread starter BWRhasnoAC
- Start date
Didn't you crown Kansas champs after they beat Texas though? Before we lost to Tech?
Roughly the most-likely to least-likely wins for KU & ISU, among remaining games.
Kansas (8-2)
TCU
at Texas Tech
West Virginia
Texas
Baylor
at Kansas State
at West Virginia
at Oklahoma
Iowa State (7-3)
Baylor
at TCU
West Virginia
Oklahoma
at Kansas State
at Texas
at Oklahoma State
at Oklahoma
Compare the two, and keep in mind, we have to make up 1 win just to share the title.
Kansas (8-2)
TCU
at Texas Tech
West Virginia
Texas
Baylor
at Kansas State
at West Virginia
at Oklahoma
Iowa State (7-3)
Baylor
at TCU
West Virginia
Oklahoma
at Kansas State
at Texas
at Oklahoma State
at Oklahoma
Compare the two, and keep in mind, we have to make up 1 win just to share the title.
I'd guess KU goes 6-2 against that (and giving Morgantown and Norman some credit there).
We can give one more. Austin, Norman, and Stillwater are going to be tough to go 1/3, never mind 2/3.
Not impossible, but, yeah, Kansas is still odds on 80%+ to at least share it and probably like 60%+ outright.
Based on KenPom, here's the difficulty ranking of each remaining game, from easiest to hardest:
ISU.........KU
............vs TCU
............at TTU
............vs UT
vs WVU..... vs WVU
at KSU......at KSU
at TCU............
vs BU.......vs BU
vs OU.............
at UT.............
at OSU............
............at WVU
at OU.......at OU
See this post for explanation - I treated KU and ISU exactly the same for this exercise, in order to judge each team's difficulty of remaining games. So, the true odds (based on KenPom, at least) would have ISU's chances slightly worse than those listed there, and KU's slightly better.
You sparked a little scrutiny with that statement.
Let me re-frame it, with apology if I’m misinterpreting your point.
We all want Iowa State to win the conference title, if possible. But if it requires too much stumbling on KU’s part to do it, that’s possibly worse for ISU when it comes to tournament seeding.
There is no race, this was lost when they didn't show up at Baylor and at tech. Kansas remaining schedule is much easier, we needed to be on top at this point and instead we are a game behind. That said, it doesn't matter much, if this team gets to the sweet sixteen nobody cares about winning the conference.
demoncore1031
Well-Known Member
We have 5 road games and only 4 at home now. It's gonna be rough, but we can do it. Monday night's game at OU is huge! I hope we come out red hot and don't cool of at all. Remember last year at Oklahoma when Spangler had like 8,000,000 rebounds? Not gonna happen with Jameel bustin' his chops this time. Oklahoma is scary at home, but I think we match up well with them.
I really hope we win out at home and keep that streak going, and then we need some road wins. Kansas will probably finish 13-5 in conference at worst, so we need to step it up on the road.
I really hope we win out at home and keep that streak going, and then we need some road wins. Kansas will probably finish 13-5 in conference at worst, so we need to step it up on the road.
I think the only way we end up winning the conference is by going 8-0 to finish the season. My best guess is Kansas drops one of the two: @K-State, @WVU.
And at OU would be my guess, meaning we likely need 7-1. At this point, all we can do is take care of our business. Finish strong and get a great seed. The championship may or may not be there.
Kansas is unlikely to lose at WVU or KSU.
You can't think KU is going to lose at KSU yet expect us likely to walk away with a W there.
You can't think KU is going to lose at KSU yet expect us likely to walk away with a W there.
So if Iowa State beats Oklahoma in Norman tomorrow, we're right back on track to share the conference title with KU. (Easier said than done, I know.)
I find it interesting how much better KenPom thinks OU is than this ISU/KU hybrid. OU has a 74% chance of winning at home, but still has a 47% chance of winning of the road. It seems that OU would have somewhere around a 61% chance of beating ISU or KU on a true neutral floor according to this. But KenPom isn't perfect and I believe OU is perhaps the most overrated team by that metric.
This chart aligns with what I and others have said - really the only realistic chance at winning this thing is for ISU to go 7-1 down the stretch while KU goes 6-2.
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OU is really, really good at home. Winning tomorrow would be huge. It's going to take focused, intense effort on both sides of the ball.
Which would be one less. Makes a difference when you are already a game behind.
