Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

[FDWxMan]

Umm..... Go back and read the first 18 pages of this thread.

I have. You weren't paying attention. I've been forecasting the while time the models were overdoing it.

But if you aren't listening or can't understand the difference between raw model output and a human meteorologist analyzing the storm.... That's a you problem.

Can't put 12" predictions on the meteorologists on this thread because the never happened.

 

[bawbie]

The biggest complainers that the "forecast is always wrong" are usually the ones that aren't paying attention and don't know what the forecast was anyway.

Or the ones that think a 7-day out model run is a "forecast".

 

[Trice]

Umm..... Go back and read the first 18 pages of this thread.

Never in this discussion was the huge caveat of "this is days away and circumstances can and likely will change" not mentioned. Never. Stop reading selectively.

 

[FDWxMan]

Cliffnotes for the Al's and awd's of the thread...

So I'm not ready to throw it into Blizzard for the Ages, but still looks like a significant winter storm for Iowa. Will need shovels and snowblowers, especially west central Iowa.

And yes, this forecast will change, but that is how things look to me at this point.

So right now, the GFS model is indicating snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour over a 7 or 8 hour window, which, well, doesn't happen often, here, for that long.

For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.

I think a good place to start the bidding is 5-8". Place over/unders on that.
Eastern Nebraska would get hammered. I'd probably be more comfortable getting to double digits for amounts around Omaha....maybe Atlantic/Denison/Carroll.

 

[chuckd4735]

Umm..... Go back and read the first 18 pages of this thread.

So I notice last Thursday that the Metogram Generator is calling for 20" storm, I start thread. Then, a bunch of people who have no idea how to be a meteorologist, myself included, try and act like we really know what we are talking about, and post some cool graphs and colorful maps. Then, the 2 or 3 real meteorologist who post on here (who are pretty easy to pick out) tell us to pump the breaks and give forecast that actually matches what we have right now.

Yet, you pay attention to the people who have no idea what they are talking about?

 

[00clone]

I'm just amazed that the 'weather forecasters are dumb' people spent so much time in this thread initiated by and intended for weather forecasters. Think they're dumb? GTFO and start a different thread...

 

[chuckd4735]

Never in this discussion was the huge caveat of "this is days away and circumstances can and likely will change" not mentioned. Never. Stop reading selectively.

The thread title itself should be caveat enough.

 

[3TrueFans]

Never in this discussion was the huge caveat of "this is days away and circumstances can and likely will change" not mentioned. Never. Stop reading selectively.

I was under the impression that was always just implied when talking about the weather.

 

[awd4cy]

So I notice last Thursday that the Metogram Generator is calling for 20" storm, I start thread. Then, a bunch of people who have no idea how to be a meteorologist, myself included, try and act like we really know what we are talking about, and post some cool graphs and colorful maps. Then, the 2 or 3 real meteorologist who post on here (who are pretty easy to pick out) tell us to pump the breaks and give forecast that actually matches what we have right now.

Yet, you pay attention to the people who have no idea what they are talking about?

I'm confused, so the people that have no idea what they are talking about don't qualify as posters in this thread? Okay then.

 

[00clone]

The thread title itself should be caveat enough.

Oh, see, I thought that meant the weather at like 3 in the morning on 2/21...the more you know...

 

[isubucky72]

The biggest complainers that the "forecast is always wrong" are usually the ones that aren't paying attention and don't know what the forecast was anyway.

^This!

 

[chuckd4735]

I'm confused, so the people that have no idea what they are talking about don't qualify as posters in this thread? Okay then.

I didn't say that. However, if you took their 1 foot of snow predictions while totally disregarding what the poster's who actually know what they are talking about say, then that's your problem.

 

[chuckd4735]

Oh, see, I thought that meant the weather at like 3 in the morning on 2/21...the more you know...

[video=youtube;v3rhQc666Sg]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3rhQc666Sg[/video]

 

[FDWxMan]

I'm confused, so the people that have no idea what they are talking about don't qualify as posters in this thread? Okay then.

So even though the meteorologist never said it, they're still wrong. Got it.

Makes sense. If I turn out to be right there has to be some way to cancel out a week of good forecasting to keep that 80% of the time wrong claim up there.

 

[awd4cy]

I have. You weren't paying attention. I've been forecasting the while time the models were overdoing it.

But if you aren't listening or can't understand the difference between raw model output and a human meteorologist analyzing the storm.... That's a you problem.

Can't put 12" predictions on the meteorologists on this thread because the never happened.

Never did, just some posters that have said this. I really don't lurke CF enough to know who our meterologists are anyways so I guess I am guilty of that.

 

[00clone]

So even thought the meteorologist never said it, they're still wrong. Got it.

Makes sense. If I turn out to be right there has to be some way to cancel out a week of good forecasting to keep that 80% of the time wrong claim up there.

I'm starting to believe that this thread has become some sort of portal to the HN forums, where this type of dumb logic is par for the course.

 

[awd4cy]

So even though the meteorologist never said it, they're still wrong. Got it.

Makes sense. If I turn out to be right there has to be some way to cancel out a week of good forecasting to keep that 80% of the time wrong claim up there.

I'm glad you aren't doing any selective reading yourself or anything because I never said this...
So far all I have got from this thread are that meterologist are major douches.

 

[BigBake]

I think a lot of regular folk were looking for the next nemo.

 

[FDWxMan]

I'm starting to believe that this thread has become some sort of portal to the HN forums, where this type of dumb logic is par for the course.

Funny you should say that... Some of the weird trolling in the other threads and the posterology stuff was very HN flavored. Almost like some of the mass banned trolls from there were starting to become active here......

 

[BigBake]

This has the potential to be the most epic weather thread of all time!

Only correct prediction from first 5 pages. the computer models were crazy wrong. the weather forecasters were correct in there statements about holding off on inch forecasts.