*****The Super, Mega, Huge Big 12 Expansion Thread*****

[bosco]

I'm not saying this will make sense, but...

Why would the value of the Tier 1 deal triple? What has changed about the teams or the TV marketplace that could cause such a dramatic change in 1 year? That's THE biggest component of the deal. If that doesn't change much, you're looking at less than half of the SEC take (and that's WITHOUT a Tier 3 league-wide network, which many expect them to build).

Of course, it's all just speculation at this point. But many Missouri fans see those kind of numbers as "pie in the sky." They just don't believe the B12 can deliver on those promises, as smaller market teams replace larger market ones.

The new Pac 12 deal set a precedence of what the B12 expects to make when they renegotiate the T1 deal. The old TV deal had the PAC 10 making about 60 million a year. The new one for 12 teams is worth 225 million a year. That is 375% increase.

The B12 currently gets 60 million for tier 1 and the new Fox deal for T2 is 90 million a year or 150 million combined. To put this on par with the P12 TV revenue the T1 rights should be worth around 180 million on the conservative side. The total revenue for the B12 would be 270 million or 22.5 million per team (for 12 teams) for T1 and T2. This will all depend of course on what teams the B12 will bring in once MU leaves.

 

[boone7247]

Although I don't like responding to you because you'll ignore my words or come up with some crazy counterargument that makes no sense, I'll just say this for the benefit of everybody else.

1. New Big 12 Tier 2 deal averages 9 mil/yr/team

2. Blair Kirkoff from the KC Star wrote sometime after A&M left that he heard the new Tier 1 deal could go for up to triple its current value of 6.5 mil/yr/team. Let's say it does hit that ceiling and goes for 20 mil/yr/team

3. New Big 12 network tier 3 deal brings in 3 mil/yr/team (I making this number up, but you have to admit it couldn't be much lower than that

That's a grand total of 32 mil/yr/team. Even if the Tier 1 deal doesn't go that high, its still in the ballpark of the SEC by a few million at most.

Big 12 money will be very comparable to SEC money. Bottom line.

Not sure weather you are right or wrong. But don't over look attendance and donor giving. If Mizzou has as much sucess in the SEC as we think, no way are they going to get 70k to games, or bring in alumni donations.

 

[MaccloNe]

I got home from watching uconn game to find out Pitt and Syracuse were leaving big east and I was pretty down. First time I felt like ISU would be screwed in all this. Up to that point, I always believed the b12 would live or we'd get big east invite. After that, I wasn't so sure anymore.

But now, a few weeks later, we learn that ISU may walk away from this in a better situation than before? Equal revenue sharing, 6 year sharing of rights, conference members who want to be here, and maybe a b12 network? Now if we could only get to 12 teams and divisional play with 4 non-conference games.

I am not dumb enough to believe 100% this will last forever but it gives Rhodes some time to get us back to bowls and Freddie time for 6 consecutive conference titles!!!

Who is this Rhodes your mention? Do we have a Rhodes scholar on staff? Oh, FYI OUR FOOTBALL COACH IS RHOADS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mizzoulander]

Why would the SEC contract almost double? Especially when the SEC is locked into a contract and there appears to be no way for the SEC to open that contract negotiation back up. Any more money that CBS and ESPN give them is to keep them happy for the next round of negotiations in 2023. I don't know where 'Mr. SEC' is getting his numbers, but everything that I've heard is that ESPN and CBS will agree to increase the contract to give the additional teams the same amount as the current teams. Which, I believe is around $18mil. I don't understand why the Big12's numbers are "pie in the sky" when they are actually in a position to negotiate a contract, and the SEC media is just making up numbers with no real ability to negotiate a contract until 2023. In reality, Missourah and Aggie very well could be making a lot less money in the SEC starting in 2016.

It won't (although I do expect it to be adjusted, especially if the Pac-12 AND the Big 12 end up with a more lucrative deal).

Can the SEC renegotiate its TV contract or not? - CBSSports.com

So each SEC team gets about $18M now, with does not include Tier 3. And each Big 12 team gets about $15M now, also not including Tier 3. The SEC by most accounts plans to start a Tier 3 Network, like the BTN. BTN distributes $8M per year to each team today (and growing fast). An SEC network should expect at least that much.

SEC Expansion To 14 Goal: Its Own Network : Outkick The Coverage

Now you're talking $25-30M per year and you haven't renegotiated anything.

As for the Big 12, I get that young males watch college football live (Frank the Tank's view). That drives the price up. What I don't get is how you replace relatively large fan-base teams with smaller fan-base teams, and turn that into a more lucrative deal?

Then, there's the lack of a league-wide Tier 3 network - something that will always be hamstrung by the lack of UT and OU participation.

I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, but something just doesn't compute for me. I wouldn't go spending a lot of that future revenue...

 

[cyman05]

It won't (although I do expect it to be adjusted, especially if the Pac-12 AND the Big 12 end up with a more lucrative deal).

Can the SEC renegotiate its TV contract or not? - CBSSports.com

So each SEC team gets about $18M now, with does not include Tier 3. And each Big 12 team gets about $15M now, also not including Tier 3. The SEC by most accounts plans to start a Tier 3 Network, like the BTN. BTN distributes $8M per year to each team today (and growing fast). An SEC network should expect at least that much.

SEC Expansion To 14 Goal: Its Own Network : Outkick The Coverage

Now you're talking $25-30M per year and you haven't renegotiated anything.

As for the Big 12, I get that young males watch college football live (Frank the Tank's view). That drives the price up. What I don't get is how you replace relatively large fan-base teams with smaller fan-base teams, and turn that into a more lucrative deal?

Then, there's the lack of a league-wide Tier 3 network - something that will always be hamstrung by the lack of UT and OU participation.

I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, but something just doesn't compute for me. I wouldn't go spending a lot of that future revenue...

Tier 1 is more about national appeal than anything. And when you have games like Texas-Ohio state from a few years ago, OU-Florida State, Texas-OU, those games are getting an exclusive national window. It doesn't matter what the size of the local fanbases are if the game brings in lots of eyes nationally...This is the reason Nebraska got the nod for the Big 10 invite. Their local population is small, but they can turn on a lot of TV sets nationally.

Quality of a conference helps make up for lack of local population when it comes to TV revenue.

 

[cyman05]

PeteThamelNYT Pete Thamel



Although consensus wasn't reached in Dallas today on the 10 vs 12 debate in the Big 12, still looks like 10 is the favorite.

 

[Mizzoulander]

Not sure weather you are right or wrong. But don't over look attendance and donor giving. If Mizzou has as much sucess in the SEC as we think, no way are they going to get 70k to games, or bring in alumni donations.

I worry more about the opposite. If we were to STAY in the Big 12, a sizeable segment of the fan base would be outraged. Donor dollars would dry up. We'd be in bad shape.

No way something like this happens without at least some support of big boosters: "Dollar" Bill Laurie, Stan Kroenke, etc.

Of all the ramifications surrounding the move, the $$$ is the one I'm LEAST worried about...

 

[cyman05]

Awesome quote from LSU's chancellor
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/s...gger-grants-for-athletes.html?_r=1&ref=sports

Regarding conference realignment, Emmert said the N.C.A.A. was mostly taking a hands-off approach. But he said the sudden, frenetic changes to the conference landscape had been unsettling. He suggested that universities considering moves operate more openly in a 30-day window rather than making quick decisions behind closed doors.
“At the end of the day, individual presidents in particular have to feel good about trusting each other,” Emmert said. “They’ve got to sit down and do business together. We’ve seen some erosion of that trust and confidence this year, and that bothers me a lot.”
Neither Emmert nor the university presidents here were sure when, how or even if conference realignment would end. But they agreed that the changes could be disconcerting.
“I think it’s far from over, and I think we could ultimately end up with two enormous conferences, one called ESPN and one called Fox,” said Martin, L.S.U.’s chancellor. “I’m not exactly sure what we do about it.”

 

[sunset]

It won't (although I do expect it to be adjusted, especially if the Pac-12 AND the Big 12 end up with a more lucrative deal).

Can the SEC renegotiate its TV contract or not? - CBSSports.com

So each SEC team gets about $18M now, with does not include Tier 3. And each Big 12 team gets about $15M now, also not including Tier 3. The SEC by most accounts plans to start a Tier 3 Network, like the BTN. BTN distributes $8M per year to each team today (and growing fast). An SEC network should expect at least that much.

SEC Expansion To 14 Goal: Its Own Network : Outkick The Coverage

Now you're talking $25-30M per year and you haven't renegotiated anything.

As for the Big 12, I get that young males watch college football live (Frank the Tank's view). That drives the price up. What I don't get is how you replace relatively large fan-base teams with smaller fan-base teams, and turn that into a more lucrative deal?

Then, there's the lack of a league-wide Tier 3 network - something that will always be hamstrung by the lack of UT and OU participation.

I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, but something just doesn't compute for me. I wouldn't go spending a lot of that future revenue...

I've refrained from commenting on your posts in this thread for a while now because everybody sees you for what you are. I've had enough. For the love of god, just go away. I don't know what alternate reality you live in but unless you are willing to join the rest of us and embrace fact and logic, stay off this message board.

 

[everyyard]

Well for any doubters, now you know from a true SEC insider who is pulling all the strings. Nothing is happening without espn or fox's okay.

 

[Wesley]

The fact is that if Mizzou claims they're moving for the financial gain, they're wrong, at least if they expect a difference in financial gain until the SEC contract is up in 2023. If MU stays, their B12 revenues will be about equal to SEC revenues. Any difference between the two will end up costing them with a massive B12 buyout fee.

Now after 2023, yes, there will be a big windfall. But I just can't believe that schools like Missouri are seeing the big picture and seeing what life will be like more than a dozen years from now. If they did see the big picture, they'd value wins more than money...there are some things money can't buy. The prestige of the SEC doesn't matter if you never make it past the Music City bowl more than once every 6-7 years.

For all we know by 2023, we may have super conferences and the Big 12 might be merged with the SEC.

 

[ripvdub]

PeteThamelNYT Pete Thamel



Although consensus wasn't reached in Dallas today on the 10 vs 12 debate in the Big 12, still looks like 10 is the favorite.

WHyyyyyyyy!!

 

[Wesley]

Tier 1 is more about national appeal than anything. And when you have games like Texas-Ohio state from a few years ago, OU-Florida State, Texas-OU, those games are getting an exclusive national window. It doesn't matter what the size of the local fanbases are if the game brings in lots of eyes nationally...This is the reason Nebraska got the nod for the Big 10 invite. Their local population is small, but they can turn on a lot of TV sets nationally.

Quality of a conference helps make up for lack of local population when it comes to TV revenue.

It also depends if Fox is big in the new area or not. If they had WVU, that would be new territory for them.

 

[HoopsTournament]

It won't (although I do expect it to be adjusted, especially if the Pac-12 AND the Big 12 end up with a more lucrative deal).

Can the SEC renegotiate its TV contract or not? - CBSSports.com

So each SEC team gets about $18M now, with does not include Tier 3. And each Big 12 team gets about $15M now, also not including Tier 3. The SEC by most accounts plans to start a Tier 3 Network, like the BTN. BTN distributes $8M per year to each team today (and growing fast). An SEC network should expect at least that much.

SEC Expansion To 14 Goal: Its Own Network : Outkick The Coverage

Now you're talking $25-30M per year and you haven't renegotiated anything.

As for the Big 12, I get that young males watch college football live (Frank the Tank's view). That drives the price up. What I don't get is how you replace relatively large fan-base teams with smaller fan-base teams, and turn that into a more lucrative deal?

Then, there's the lack of a league-wide Tier 3 network - something that will always be hamstrung by the lack of UT and OU participation.

I'm not saying it CAN'T happen, but something just doesn't compute for me. I wouldn't go spending a lot of that future revenue...

There is one BIG flaw in your logic (nothing new there). SEC Tier 1 and Tier 2 include all but one game for each team. You would be getting a total of 14 football games for a Tier 3. Big 10 has about twice that many. Plus, most of the games that have been relegated to Tier 3 have been against lower level teams.

 

[Wesley]

I worry more about the opposite. If we were to STAY in the Big 12, a sizeable segment of the fan base would be outraged. Donor dollars would dry up. We'd be in bad shape.

No way something like this happens without at least some support of big boosters: "Dollar" Bill Laurie, Stan Kroenke, etc.

Of all the ramifications surrounding the move, the $$$ is the one I'm LEAST worried about...

Your result could happen either in the Big 12 or SEC. If you have little success, donors dry up for either league.

 

[NobodyBeatsCy]

WHyyyyyyyy!!

I nearly forgot how weird that Kerrigan / Harding thing was.

 

[Wesley]

There is one BIG flaw in your logic (nothing new there). SEC Tier 1 and Tier 2 include all but one game for each team. You would be getting a total of 14 football games for a Tier 3. Big 10 has about twice that many. Plus, most of the games that have been relegated to Tier 3 have been against lower level teams.

That is why I like 12 teams - more games to sell.

 

[BBHMagic]

PeteThamelNYT Pete Thamel



Although consensus wasn't reached in Dallas today on the 10 vs 12 debate in the Big 12, still looks like 10 is the favorite.

On the call in show today they talked to Jamie Pollard before CPR and he said that almost all the school's leaders wanted to stay at ten even if Missery left. He also made it sound like we would have a new team to replace Missery almost instantly if they left. He sounded like he was talking about one team in particular too.

 

[CrossCyed]

A conference wide network could be done by Fox and therefore the Tier 2 rights could come into play there.

 

[cyman05]

On the call in show today they talked to Jamie Pollard before CPR and he said that almost all the school's leaders wanted to stay at ten even if Missery left. He also made it sound like we would have a new team to replace Missery almost instantly if they left. He sounded like he was talking about one team in particular too.

West Virginia. Rumor is that it was finalized in principal on Friday pending Mizzou leaving.