I think this game is really intriguing. I think that we will demolish UNI. UNI is on a slide, and we've been playing well the first game the last couple of years. The question is what will it tell us?
I look at Iowa and see dramatic losses for them, especially on defense. Could you imagine ISU trying to replace three starters on the DL heading into next year? What bothers me about their DL losses is that their DL wasn't that good last year. The difference between watching Iowa play and watching OSU and Auburn play was amazing because all I heard all last year was how good Iowa's DL was suppose to be. Our matchup with their DL isn't necessarily a huge ISU advantage either. We lose our best lineman in Lamaak, but the rest of the guys are pretty experienced. I think ISU should look better than we have in recent years up front this fall.
They lose three up front on D however because they were rotating Ballard, Daniels, and Binns it's more like they only have to replace two up front as Daniels and Binns will be starting next season. Also, Daniels made a huge splash last season, more so than Clayborn did. Their DLine will be somewhat solid.
Next, Iowa's LB's. Horrible this year. Yes, they had injuries forcing a true freshman to start at mlb for 1/2 the season. He'll be better. The kid from Humboldt should be healthy, but I have no idea what 3# lb looks like for them. What I see is a bunch of guys at Iowa playing LB that are slow. That's great for us. We're going to put quicker more elusive guys at RB at next fall. Plus, our passing attack will target the sidelines to draw their OLB's to get out there and with them being a step slow, maybe we'll finally break a couple of long plays next fall.
Iowa took some big hits in the injury department last year at LB so in theory they can probably only get better. One of their outside LB's had a vertebrae fracture but should be back full strength next season. He was their best pass defending LB. Their new middle LB, Morris I think, played extremely well for a true freshman. So they will only be truly replacing one LB.
Their back four will actually be pretty good. Iowa tends to make a living with safeties that aren't the most athletically gifted kids (like Greenwood) who are smart players that thrive off of the opposition's qb being pressured into bad throws (Ames in '09). Sash is a solid but not explosive player. His reputation was largely built off of one game (Ames '09). Thus, I think you'll see better athletes playing safety for Iowa this year, and their two cb's are solid and back for another go round. I think they have a decided advantage here as their cb's are good in run support and better athletes than our wr's. Plus, their new safeties will be better in run support (especially over greenwood).
They got a huge boost when Prater decided to come back. Prater, although nowhere near as good as Spievey, has some shutdown ability and as we saw from the bowl game, Hyde seems to be filling into that position fairly well. Their safety play is going to be a huge question mark next year, and this is one of the few places that we will have to take advantage of if we are going to win. They don't really have anybody back there with significant playing time to cover the loss of Greenwood and Sash. There is a possibility we may even see a true freshman back their come September.
Offensively, Iowa kind of scares me a little bit. I know everyone expected them to have a great offense this year that never came to fruition, but they should be pretty damn tough offensively next year. They bring back 5 OL that either started or played significant minutes. That's not good for our dline that will still be making adjustments to Nelson and hopefully a new DT that will be playing. They pass block very well, and I hate to say it we haven't exactly pushed them with the DL lately.
Their OLine is going to be a meatgrinder next year, and going forward based on looking at their recruiting. They will have 5 returning starters, all of which have significant minutes. They should be really good at opening up holes and protecting Vandenburg.
I think the kid from Keokuk? at qb is a more explosive player than what Stanzi was. I think he has a bigger arm and throws a better ball than what Stanzi did. However, Stanzi was a winner for the most part. This will be the new qb's first rivalry game, and I think we can force him into mistakes. I would Iowa's inexperience here gives us the best chance to win, followed closely by their lack of lb's. Luckily for their new qb, it appears they have a rb that is a beats. ISU struggles against big backs. Coker coupled with an experienced OL against our DL might alleviate the worries Iowa fans should have about their qb against us. On top of Coker, they are bringing in two heralded RB recruits both similar to Coker/Shonn Green. They aren't gamebreakers like SJ is, but I imagine they'll be pretty damn good at getting 4-5 yards which is enough if Iowa plays mistake free football.
I've only seen Vandenburg like the rest of us have, in 09's NW, tOSU and Minny games. He looked really good at Ohio State but mediocre at best against NW and Minny. As per status quo in Iowa City most Iowa fans have high expectations for Vandenburg, but then again, every Iowa fan thinks the bench QB is the better one on the team. Coker did look amazing in the Insight bowl. He absolutely shredded the Mizzou D, and that again goes back to solid OLine play. The thing that bodes well for us is Iowa has a knack of losing starting RB's to bad luck, injuries, or legal stupidities. Experience wise there is no depth in Iowa's running game. Coker is #1 and then it falls off to a RS freshman and then whatever recruits they get this season.
They do lose their stud TE that hurt us last year. I really don't have any idea if they have anyone coming up behind him. So that's good news because our LB's are much better in run support than they are in the pass game. As far as WR's go, they do lose #15. That's going to hurt, but McNutt is a good player. Not explosive but a matchup problem for our smaller cb's. The kid from CR will be asked to play alot, but I think we have a decided advantage in the passing game against Iowa this fall.
TEs is an area where Iowa should never be questioned at, and with good reason based on their track record. Yes, their stud Reisner graduated, but fighting in the wings is junior Brad Herman who saw good playing time last year and sophomore CJ Fiedorowitz, who was the 2nd best TE in the nation for his recruiting class. Beyond that I think they have another couple of 4* TEs waiting in the wings or coming this class. My guess is Herman and Fiedorowitz see equal amounts of time, and both are good at catching. WR is a different story, and Iowa fans need to be thanking their lucky stars that McNutt decided to come back. There is very little experienced depth at WR for them next year. Expect McNutt and Keenan Davis to start and then beyond that there is a lot of fresh blood.
It will be a hard game to pick. We haven't scored a TD in a long time. They have some pretty significant losses. Right now I'd say we force the new qb to make a few mistakes and beat Iowa, but it will fun to here news out of both spring camps to maybe make some more knowledgeable predictions.
I think this game will be closer than the last two have been however with that said, I don't think we overcome the talent gap. For every significant loss Iowa had after 2010 we had roughly the same impact of a loss on our team. Both teams bring in new QBs however I think the Vandenburg seems better prepped to hit the ground running next fall. They already have the advantage because for the most part, Vandenburg has this whole offseason to prep for taking the keys to the car. While on our half of the state, we don't even know who that person will be.