With Iowa's three wrestlers out, Beatty will never beat Varner, so I'm not counting him because they only gave up 3 at that weight anyway so no change. Erickson and Z wrestling at full strength is a toss-up every time regardless what happened the time before, that's the nature of HWT matches. Dennis not being in the lineup is legit as I think he's better than Fanny, but with us missing Gallick and they won that weight, the missing wrestlers for both teams was really a moot point in today's dual.
As for Long, I don't think you're giving McD enough credit in my opinion. Both are excellent wrestlers but I think McD has a slight edge in ability. I remember seeing McD at State in high school and being blown away with technique. The kid can scramble and maneuver as good as anyone pound for pound. Long gets himself in some tough positions that sometimes doesn't favor him and against McD, has gotten him beat. Long has improved and is on McD's level and I believe he can beat him, but I think McD is and has been the favorite.
You're right about Reader, I think he felt like riding time was a lock and decided to cash it in and then realized too late that it wasn't. No excuse it just can't happen, but I'm positive he can win that match a majority of the time and will at the NCAA's.
About Varner, I just don't like the antics. That is a personal thing with me and everyone is going to see it a different way, for me, its great to have swagger but show it in a way that doesn't demean an opponent. I like athletes with class and Varner has that, just got caught up in the meet with Iowa.
Don't take this as an attack on you, just countering what you're saying.