Thought this would be fun to post a little bit of matchup by numbers. I'll try and pair offenses vs. defenses. My "tl;dr" version of below is that It appears that in many categories by the numbers, these are 2 fairly evenly matched teams only by numbers. The rebounding is nearly identical between both teams for example. However, ISU scores more points per game than anybody in the Big 10 except Michigan State and Iowa. In those games, OSU went 1-4 and only 1 game of the 5 managed to hold them to under 70 points (and still lost). In 14 of OSU's 22 games, opponents scored at or more points than OSU's season scoring defense mark.
It would appear that OSU plays some defense, but this is nothing that ISU hasn't seen. 2 teams in the Big 12 rank in the top 5 in the country in scoring defense - Texas Tech and Kansas State - who both allow less points by multiple possessions than OSU. ISU went 3-2 this year against Texas Tech and Kansas State, and in 4 of those 5 games ISU scored more on them than their average scoring defense. The only game in which ISU didn't get more was against K-State and the scored 57 points to K-State's average scoring defense of 59.1 points.
In the end, I think this is a pretty winnable game. I don't think OSU will present a mismatch on the glass and it appears that fast, athletic teams like ISU are not ones in which OSU does terribly well with this season.
I'm guessing ISU wins by 6-9 points in an entertaining game.
Scoring
ISU (offense): 77.7 points/game (59th)
OSU (defense): 65.6 points/game (39th)
OSU (offense): 69.3 points/game (267th)
ISU (defense): 68.8 points/game (110th)
ISU averaged 12 points per game higher than OSU gave up. The amount of points that ISU gives up is nearly identical to the amount of points per game OSU scores.
Field Goal Percentage
Iowa State (offensive): 47.7% (30th)
Ohio State (defensive): 42% (78th)
Ohio State (offensive): 43.6% (227th)
Iowa State (defensive): 42% (76th)
ISU and OSU give up the same percentage field goal percentage to their opponents. What ISU gives up is similar to what OSU shoots. However, ISU on average has shot nearly 6% greater than what OSU gives up.
3 Point Field Goal Percentage
Iowa State (offense): 36.2% (93rd). 8.5 made per game
Ohio State (defense): 33% (104th). 6.8 allowed per game
Ohio State (offense): 33.8% (216th). 7.4 made per game
Iowa State (defense): 34.2% (182nd). 8.1 made per game
OSU seems to have better 3 point defense, but this seems fairly even.
FT Percentage
Iowa State: 72.8% (99th). 17.5 attempts/game
Ohio State: 72.6% (106th). 19 attempts/game
Fairly even
Rebounding
Iowa State (defensive): 25.67 rebounds/game (141st)
Ohio State (offensive): 9.48 rebounds/game (T-213th)
Ohio State (defensive): 25.36 rebounds/game (169th)
Iowa State (offensive): 9.48 rebounds/game (T-213th)
OSU and ISU average literally the same amount of offensive rebounds per game and their defensive rebounds per game is almost identical too. This one is a wash.
Also, in case anybody cares - Baylor was 11th in the entire country in offensive rebounding per game, almost identical to Duke.
Assists
Iowa State: 15.5 assists/game (38th)
Ohio State: 13.8 assists/game (140th)
This favors Iowa State, but not by a ton.
Steals
Iowa State: 7.1 steals/game (86th)
Ohio State: 5.7 steals/game (250th)
Slightly favoring ISU here.
Turnovers
Iowa State (committed): 11 turnovers/game (T-34th)
Ohio State (forced on D): 12.26 turnovers/game (248th)
Ohio State (committed): 12.4 turnovers/game (T-112th)
Iowa State (forced on D): 13.16 turnovers/game (T-174th)
Ohio State turns it over about 1.5 times more per game than ISU, and ISU forces nearly 1 more turnover per game than OSU commits. The same can be same for ISU forcing about 1 more turnover per game than ISU.
Blocks
Iowa State: 4.5 blocks/game (35th)
Ohio State: 2.5 blocks/game (T-274th)
ISU favored here
Fouls
Iowa State: 14.7 fouls/game (11th)
Ohio State: 17.9 fouls/game (198th)
ISU favored here.
