Williams Blog: Odds analyst projects ISU at 3-9 next season

By Chris Williams, PublisherFollow Chris on Twitter @ChrisMWilliams  

Predicting point spreads in the middle of June isn’t exactly an easy thing to do.

The guys over at recently tried to do this and they aren’t exactly thrilled about the Iowa State Cyclones in 2012. Beyond the Bets projected point spreads for all 798 division one games next season. The publication only labels Iowa State as the favorite in three of those competitions (Tulsa, Western Illinois and Kansas).

REMEMBER: That point spreads are made to create action on both sides of the game.

NOTE: I recently spoke with my friend Ken Miller about how home field advantage affects a points spread in Vegas. Ken said that Jack Trice Stadium is a 4.5 stadium so keep that in mind as we go through Iowa State’s 2012 schedule.

Beyond the Bets projections plus my take on each game…

Sept. 1 – Iowa State (-2) vs. Tulsa – If Jack Trice Stadium is worth 4.5 points, then Beyond the Bets would have Tulsa as a 2.5 point favorite over Iowa State on a neutral field. I don’t see that…I’d go Iowa State by 5-8 points.

Sept. 8 – Iowa State @ Iowa (-7.5)  – This line actually seems spot on to me. Ken Miller tells me that Kinnick Stadium is worth six points and as I’ve been saying for months, these two teams are pretty even from a talent perspective. But a gambling addict in Delaware will bet Iowa in this guy 90 percent of the time right?

Sept. 15 – Iowa State (-29) vs. Western Illinois – I’d be a liar if I told you I know much about this team on June 13…

Sept. 29 – Texas Tech (-6) @ Iowa State – Do I agree with Tech being the favorite? Yes. But not by six. I’d say anywhere from a pick’em to 4 points in favor of the Red Raiders…Remember what I wrote about about Vegas trying to create action…

Oct. 6 – Iowa State @ TCU (-20.5) – Maybe I’m drastically undervaluing TCU for next season but that seems incredibly high to me (more on this later).

Oct. 13 – Iowa State vs. Kansas State (-7.5) – Pretty accurate in my opinion…Kansas State is always better than "experts" and fans expect them to be (love me some Bill Snyder).

Oct. 20 – Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (-19) – It’s interesting to me that Iowa State is a bigger dog to TCU than an Oklahoma State program that is known for scoring a lot of points in a small amount of time. Mike Gundy will face the chore of working in a freshman quarterback this season but he’s a good one…Plus there’s no way that the Cowboy Nation has forgotten about last November right?

Oct. 27 – Iowa State vs. Baylor (-3.5) – I’d probably tab Iowa State as a slight favorite in this game and possibly a pick…

Nov. 3 – Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (-20) – Tough to argue with that…

Nov. 10 – Iowa State @ Texas (-21) – That too…

Nov. 17 – Iowa State (-4) @ Kansas – Probably about right even though I think Kansas will be better than many of these preseason publications believe. This road contest is far from a sure thing for the Cyclones.

Nov. 24 – Iowa State vs. West Virginia (-10) – That’s fair…

— So according to these projections, Beyond the Bets has Iowa State going 3-9 next season and 1-8 in the Big 12 (the same as USA Today if you’re keeping score at home). Overall, I think that they are a little bit hard on the Cyclones which tends to happen every June regardless of Iowa State’s talent level.

Again – Where I’m stumped is that TCU line. If you CLICK HERE to read Beyond the Bets complete Big 12 breakdown, the publication has the Horned Frogs going 5-4 in league play and placing fifth in the league. Yet, TCU is a bigger favorite over Iowa State (at home) than Oklahoma State and almost Texas, two teams that Beyond the Bets has finishing comfortably ahead of the Horned Frogs.

I’m not going to be too picky though. It’s June 13 and we’re talking about hypothetical point spreads for gosh sakes.