I can see the SEC and B10 trying to wrestle control of the BB tournament to stack it in their favor money wise, but it's going to be a lot harder than football. In basketball the playing field is more evenly spread, the ACC and B12 teams do not take a back seat to the teams from the SEC and B10. You also have the Big East which as done very well in the tournament. There are as many "name" teams in the other three conferences to make sure that the money split will be a heck of a lot more even.
Wishful thinking
The SEC and BIG have better viewership in basketball. But that’s the least of our problems
The P2 can lean on football to get concessions from the Big 12 and ACC, assuming either exists.
And if the Big 12 and ACC take a stand, the P2 can poach the top basketball brands and others. The new CBB deal is likely approaching $2 billion/year, so adding a UNC, KU, and Duke is easy to justify if it results in 15% more base pay from the $2 billion, or more if CBB postseason is coupled to regular season
The Big East and top basketball-only are easily swayed to the P2 side with some partnership. They don’t have football to protect. Which is why the Big 12 was so shortsighted in not backing Yormark in marginalizing the Big East/add basketball. It will only get more expensive to add basketball
At that point the P2 are also nearly done having the rest of the NCAA pick up the vast majority of the House liabilities. A big mistake not to push for fundamental change when most of those liabilities would follow P2 (if separation)
What’s left of the Big 12 and ACC will be included, just as a junior partner like in the CFP