Williams & Blum: The Big 12’s path to being a multi-bid league
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I have wondered the same thing- Tampax, proud sponsor of the Williams and Blum podcast.
It’s most likely programmatic advertising. Meaning an algorithm chooses ads for each individual listener based on what it determines will be most relevant and useful for that person …
I have not listened to the podcast yet, so I may be repeating information, but if you listen to all the talking heads, ESPN is already dissing the Big XII based on the strength of schedules and trying to set the table for more Big 10 and SEC teams to get playoff bids. While I know a lot of ISU fans want KSU, BYU, and CU to lose, we need those teams to keep winning, so we are beating ranked teams (this all assumes we can run the table and get to the Big XII championship game). If we don't get to the Big XII championship game, in my opinion, we have no shot of making the playoffs, even with one loss, as that most likely means KSU got there with one loss and is either playing BYU with one or zero losses or possibly CU with a chance to win the league, which makes any of those teams ahead of ISU for a playoff spot.
No matter what speculation we have as Cyclone fans or fans of any league, what is incredibly important is the FIRST CFP ranking that comes out on Tuesday (what a huge day for our country - voting and first playoff ranking), as that will give the entire country what the CFP committee is thinking and what they feel is the important criteria to make the playoffs. All the ESPN promo of the SEC and Big 10 doesn't mean crap, unless the CFP committee feels the same way. While our season will hopefully end well (and strong with playing two ranked teams back-to-back before the playoffs), if we are too low in the first CFP ranking, it will be tough for us to move up, so we need to hope ISU, KSU, and BYU all are somewhat high in the first ranking, as the possibility of us moving up seems much harder than other teams. Sure the Indiana's and many SEC teams could start to lose after the first ranking comes out on Tuesday, but in most cases, all that will mean is the losing team moves down a bit, and the team that beat them moves up a bit while Big XII teams stay the same in the rankings, especially if we are relatively low to begin with.
I live in Ohio, and I find it hard to believe that OSU is not ahead of ISU in any ranking unless they somehow lose to PSU and Indiana, and even then, there is a strong argument for OSU to be ahead of an undefeated, or one loss, ISU because of being a strong team (keep in mind, Buckeye fans are losing their minds right now with OSU struggles). I was at the OSU /Nebby game, and OSU is loaded! Also, remember the CFP committee already set a precedent last year by leaving out an undefeated FSU team, so if the committee truly picks the best teams, ISU and the Big XII could be left on the outside, as our Iowa win doesn't look so good anymore, so we need KSU and BYU to keep winning and us beating them both so there is no doubt we get a spot. I wish we played KSU this weekend (and got the win), as beating TTU will help, but not much for the first ranking on Tuesday. Tuesday will be a massive day for all fans of college football as we will learn so much about how the CFP committee views each conference, what a loss and what a win means for each team. The Big XII parity is exciting but could be a playoff killer. Tuesday, new messaging will start (it's so unfair to the Big 10 and SEC or the Big 10 and SEC deserve it all, etc....) so the politicing truly will begin on Tuesday. At least the election (in theory) will be over, so only political battle moving forward.
No matter what, GO CYCLONE's! I'm so proud of our institution and I love wearing my ISU gear in Ohio (it took two years to get six wins when I was back at ISU in the early 90's) and I'm already looking to buy ticket for the KSU game in the hopes of what that game may mean for us. In the meantime we need to get healthy (any updates????) and win one game at a time.
No matter what speculation we have as Cyclone fans or fans of any league, what is incredibly important is the FIRST CFP ranking that comes out on Tuesday (what a huge day for our country - voting and first playoff ranking), as that will give the entire country what the CFP committee is thinking and what they feel is the important criteria to make the playoffs. All the ESPN promo of the SEC and Big 10 doesn't mean crap, unless the CFP committee feels the same way. While our season will hopefully end well (and strong with playing two ranked teams back-to-back before the playoffs), if we are too low in the first CFP ranking, it will be tough for us to move up, so we need to hope ISU, KSU, and BYU all are somewhat high in the first ranking, as the possibility of us moving up seems much harder than other teams. Sure the Indiana's and many SEC teams could start to lose after the first ranking comes out on Tuesday, but in most cases, all that will mean is the losing team moves down a bit, and the team that beat them moves up a bit while Big XII teams stay the same in the rankings, especially if we are relatively low to begin with.
I live in Ohio, and I find it hard to believe that OSU is not ahead of ISU in any ranking unless they somehow lose to PSU and Indiana, and even then, there is a strong argument for OSU to be ahead of an undefeated, or one loss, ISU because of being a strong team (keep in mind, Buckeye fans are losing their minds right now with OSU struggles). I was at the OSU /Nebby game, and OSU is loaded! Also, remember the CFP committee already set a precedent last year by leaving out an undefeated FSU team, so if the committee truly picks the best teams, ISU and the Big XII could be left on the outside, as our Iowa win doesn't look so good anymore, so we need KSU and BYU to keep winning and us beating them both so there is no doubt we get a spot. I wish we played KSU this weekend (and got the win), as beating TTU will help, but not much for the first ranking on Tuesday. Tuesday will be a massive day for all fans of college football as we will learn so much about how the CFP committee views each conference, what a loss and what a win means for each team. The Big XII parity is exciting but could be a playoff killer. Tuesday, new messaging will start (it's so unfair to the Big 10 and SEC or the Big 10 and SEC deserve it all, etc....) so the politicing truly will begin on Tuesday. At least the election (in theory) will be over, so only political battle moving forward.
No matter what, GO CYCLONE's! I'm so proud of our institution and I love wearing my ISU gear in Ohio (it took two years to get six wins when I was back at ISU in the early 90's) and I'm already looking to buy ticket for the KSU game in the hopes of what that game may mean for us. In the meantime we need to get healthy (any updates????) and win one game at a time.
The ad seems especially targeted towards African American women, which makes me wonder if they’re more likely to use pads? Which makes me wonder why the **** I am getting this ad on a sports podcast?
Which is the point I made earlier. Why advertise Tampons to a sports show audience that is at least 90% male?
I can handle the topic (although the proper depth of insertion discussion seems a bit much), but I can't figure out the logic for running this commercial over and over on male dominated podcasts.
Nice to see I’m not the only person finding that commercial questionable.
I’m guessing the sponsor paid for a certain level of distribution, and some ad hack at Apple said, “OMG, we gotta stick this somewhere!”
Er, no pun intended.
We all know we're in if we win the CCG. So, leaving that aside, it's fun to speculate on the path with uncertainty and drama - the "at large" berth path!
I feel like ISU's only "at large" path to a playoff berth is if it wins out, and KSU continues to win out and look good such that our game with them at the end of November looks like a top 10 team (ISU) at the time facing a team at the edge of the CFP 12 (maybe KSU is 11th or 12th at that time) and then lose in the CCG. That would focus a lot of attention on that game with KSU and our win would be given great weight as probably our best win of the season to that point. We might then be a 4th, 5th, 6th or even 7th or 8th rated CFP team heading into the CCG with BYU. I think BYU should ideally be undefeated here as well, and then if we lose to them, that means we're a 12-1 team (with an extra "data point" for that CCG game that some ACC or SEC or BIG team doesn't have), then that's our path to an "at large". Given our lower quality schedule than BIG or SEC teams and the perception problem, I don't really see another path unless chaos reigns in these next few weeks and teams like Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Penn State, etc. lose some games nobody expected. I guess chaos and loses piling up with those other teams could open the door to ISU as well, but the best path to an at-large playoff berth seems to be we win out, and then lose the CCG to an undefeated BYU.
I feel like ISU's only "at large" path to a playoff berth is if it wins out, and KSU continues to win out and look good such that our game with them at the end of November looks like a top 10 team (ISU) at the time facing a team at the edge of the CFP 12 (maybe KSU is 11th or 12th at that time) and then lose in the CCG. That would focus a lot of attention on that game with KSU and our win would be given great weight as probably our best win of the season to that point. We might then be a 4th, 5th, 6th or even 7th or 8th rated CFP team heading into the CCG with BYU. I think BYU should ideally be undefeated here as well, and then if we lose to them, that means we're a 12-1 team (with an extra "data point" for that CCG game that some ACC or SEC or BIG team doesn't have), then that's our path to an "at large". Given our lower quality schedule than BIG or SEC teams and the perception problem, I don't really see another path unless chaos reigns in these next few weeks and teams like Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Penn State, etc. lose some games nobody expected. I guess chaos and loses piling up with those other teams could open the door to ISU as well, but the best path to an at-large playoff berth seems to be we win out, and then lose the CCG to an undefeated BYU.
Honestly just need Indiana to lose 2 games and the path becomes a little more clear. If that happens I could honestly see the Big 10 only getting 3 bids (Oregon, Penn St, and Ohio State) 1 or two losses won’t do much harm to those. They are pretty much locks at this point barring collapse.
If Indiana finishes 11-1, out of the B10 CCG, and with their only loss to Ohio St, there is no justification for them to be picked over or seeded ahead of one loss ISU, BYU or KSU in the CFP at large pecking order.
They very likely would have zero wins over ranked CFP teams and even worse, a real possibility having zero wins over FBS teams with a winning record (yes, that would include Nebraska and Michigan).
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So this would have Ohio State winning out, beating both Penn. State and Indiana, which could happen, but no way aTm gets left out, when their only loses would be to ND and UT, with Tenn. making it with loses to Georgia and Arkansas. Just not much of a chance for either BYU or ISU to make the field unless they win the championship game. Going to take a lot of upsets for that to occur.
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I thought that too, but given how many of us are receiving the ad, and how far away we (presumably) are from the target market, my guess is Tampax is just running a spray and pray podcast ad campaign with a ridiculous budget.
But might the rankings slip without Texas and Oklahoma to give us legitimacy? A lot will depend on how our teams perform against non-conference foes over time.
The only way that maybe…and this is a big maybe the Big 12 gets two teams in: The two remaining undefeated teams (ISU & BYU) meet in the Big 12 CG. Maybe we both advance.
I suspect that even if that scenario happened and we‘re both ranked in the top 5 before the CCG, the committee will use the occassion of that loss as a pretense to keep the loser out by magically ranking said losing team #13- no matter who else loses, no matter how many 3 loss teams will be in the playoffs over a 1-loss Big 12 team. It just ain’t happening for the Big 12. No matter what happens, they will shift the criteria to make it justify the teams they want in.
Remember TD and his Heisman runner-up season? Remember how they lied to us and said that the trophy went to the best player on the best team? Then they awarded it to Johnny Manziel, who was deserving, but hardly on the best team in 2012 (3rd in SEC). Same with RG 3, deserving of the award, but played for the 3rd best team in the Big 12 in 2011. I could go on and on. Point is- they know who is going to the playoffs and they’ll say anything to justify their choices, results and logic be dam*ed.
Bottom line- get to Dallas. Win in Dallas. Go to playoffs.
I suspect that even if that scenario happened and we‘re both ranked in the top 5 before the CCG, the committee will use the occassion of that loss as a pretense to keep the loser out by magically ranking said losing team #13- no matter who else loses, no matter how many 3 loss teams will be in the playoffs over a 1-loss Big 12 team. It just ain’t happening for the Big 12. No matter what happens, they will shift the criteria to make it justify the teams they want in.
Remember TD and his Heisman runner-up season? Remember how they lied to us and said that the trophy went to the best player on the best team? Then they awarded it to Johnny Manziel, who was deserving, but hardly on the best team in 2012 (3rd in SEC). Same with RG 3, deserving of the award, but played for the 3rd best team in the Big 12 in 2011. I could go on and on. Point is- they know who is going to the playoffs and they’ll say anything to justify their choices, results and logic be dam*ed.
Bottom line- get to Dallas. Win in Dallas. Go to playoffs.
Notre Dame as the 7 seed and Iowa State and BYU on the bubble, wow. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, AT HOME. Northern Illinois is 1-3 and currently in second to last place in the MAC. If this is what we are going to do, lets just cancel the entire season and give teams playoff bids based on recruiting rankings, school endowments, and the name on the front of your jersey.
THE GAMES PLAYED ON THE FIELD HAVE TO MATTER!
Blind resume test, there is not a college football expert in the country who would claim Notre is more deserving than Iowa State or BYU.
That sounds good and all, but we all know that is not the way this is going to go down. A one loss ND is in a 12 team playoff, even when that one loss is to a MAC team.
This committee, like in the past is going to use any way they can to make sure that schools from the SEC, B10 and ND get into the playoff. Hell last year 13-0 FSU was jumped by UT and Alabama, their reasoning was that FSU had lost their QB, their perfect record did not matter. Every 12-1 team from the SEC or B10 is going to jump a 12-1 runner up from the B12. We have to hope there are a lot of 2 loss teams, and even then, if they can come up with a way to screw a 12-1 B12 team they will.
This. As long as ISU keeps winning, we should hope K-State and BYU keep winning as well. That's the only way to hedge a loss in the CCG into a potential at large playoff birth. Otherwise you are putting a whole lot of faith in ISU not just making it but winning the CCG as well.
ISU is favored in all 5 of their remaining games and only have 1 true road game. I'm not sure they would be favored in the Big 12 championship game against an undefeated BYU or in a rematch with KState in Arlington.
Now if ISU loses a regular season game that changes the whole calculus. But until then I'm going to root for the best scenario for the Big 12 which is honestly not that unlikely.
