Weather Thread (3/5/11)

[chuckd4735]

Really not going to have much of a handle on the path until Thursday evening/Friday morning.

Big low is sitting off the coast of Washington just spinning....eventually (Thursday) another wave is going to ride around the low and break off, until that happens and the storm moves on shore, the models will probably continue to have some pretty significant swings.

Imagine some one swinging a yo-yo around and around and then suddenly lets go, figuring out the track of the storm this far out is basically as likely at guessing the exact point it will be released and then following that trajectory...

You seem to be regurgitating exactly what this guy is saying... WHOtv.com - Des Moines Weather News: Weather Forecast, Weather Outlook and Weather Conditions - WHO

Why dont you come up with your own forecast?

 

[FDWxMan]

You seem to be regurgitating exactly what this guy is saying... WHOtv.com - Des Moines Weather News: Weather Forecast, Weather Outlook and Weather Conditions - WHO

Why dont you come up with your own forecast?

What are you talking about? I've never seen that page before in my life.

 

[matmann22]

Just doing my periodical every third page check-in. Are we going to live through this one?

If you were hoping for a snowstorm in Central Iowa you are outta luck for 3/5. The past two model trends have kept only light precip in central Iowa.

Now early next week is looking very interesting as the models are still locked on to a decent looking storm traveling very close to or over central Iowa.

At this point, if you want to see a blizzard, NW Wisconsin by daybreak next Wednesday looks like a good bet. Or so sayeth the 12 z GFS.... The Euro is kinda thinking the same thing only with a slightly further North track.

 

[Wesley]

If you were hoping for a snowstorm in Central Iowa you are outta luck for 3/5. The past two model trends have kept only light precip in central Iowa.

Now early next week is looking very interesting as the models are still locked on to a decent looking storm traveling very close to or over central Iowa.

At this point, if you want to see a blizzard, NW Wisconsin by daybreak next Wednesday looks like a good bet. Or so sayeth the 12 z GFS.... The Euro is kinda thinking the same thing only with a slightly further North track.

Must be headed for Madison.

 

[CyPride]

Admittedly, there was a pretty big miss (in Des Moines) last week, but 4-8 is playing awfully fast and loose with what was actually predicted...

80-90% of the area projected to get snow though was pretty well on target. Unfortunately, DSM and the high pop. missed by 20 miles or so.

4-8 was a combined total of two separate snow events that were a couple days or so apart. And I heard those totals mentioned on local TV in the DM area.

We got 1/2" at best from those two snow events.

 

[Cytom5]

is it supposed to snow or rain? can someone clarify for me

 

[Iastfan112]

is it supposed to snow or rain? can someone clarify for me

A fair amount of disagreement- depends how strong the system gets, a stronger storm will track closer to Iowa, wrap moisture around the system, and pull in cold air quicker. This solution in shown on a couple models and lead to rain to frz rain to some light to moderate snows.
The weaker solution would lead to some light rain and non accumulating snow showers on the back end. Suffice to say there is way more uncertainty than is typical for a system this close in, but regardless it doesn't look to be a crippling storm even if it follows the strongest solution.

 

[BigBake]

Any update for sat/sun forecast or did this system Peter out?

I'm traveling to nw Iowa and I'm curious about snow chances across Iowa?

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

I would prefer no precip in KC next week. Could make for long days.

 

[FDWxMan]

Any update for sat/sun forecast or did this system Peter out?

I'm traveling to nw Iowa and I'm curious about snow chances across Iowa?

NW Iowa should be fine. Storm holding on the SE track...looks to be mainly rain along and south of I-80 for Friday. 0.1" or 0.2" for Des Moines. NW Iowa should see very little of anything, maybe a few stray rounds of flurries or snow showers. You should be just fine.

Ames could see some rain, or eventually a mix, maybe creeping up to Webster City, but is should be all pretty light.

I would prefer no precip in KC next week. Could make for long days.

Still looking at a rather large system over the midwest next week, although Kansas City should be well within the warm air. Maybe some rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Freezing precip doesn't look to be an issue at all at this point down there.

 

[Cyforce]

I have been extremely let down by the supposed "big storms" this winter. Each time I hear about one I get my hopes up, and then they inevitably miss Des Moines. They all seem to keep missing us just south. I want a full-on blizzard damn it! The only "blizzard" we had this winter was barely enough to even call a blizzard. I didn't even get to miss work. Ugh.

I know we are suppose to avoid name calling but rooting for snow???????? Putz

 

[BigBake]

Thx fdwx! That's what I was looking for.

 

[BigBake]

Does that 0% precip chanc include sunday also?

 

[FDWxMan]

Does that 0% precip chanc include sunday also?

No...Sunday there is a chance for some light snow in NW Iowa. Doesn't look like it would be a major problem with huge accumulations or anything, but there could be light snow or snow showers during the afternoon/evening...