Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyatheart]

So Oregon and Washington are going to take what the top 8 big 12 schools? So all those 8 schools have to pay the exit fee then. And then those 8 have to worry about those two leaving at the drop of a hat? For what an extra 5m bucks? Seems highly unlikely.

 

[isucy86]

So Oregon and Washington are going to take what the top 8 big 12 schools? So all those 8 schools have to pay the exit fee then. Seems highly unlikely.

The Big12 TV contract ends 1 year after the Pac12 ends. So not necessary for Big12 schools to break GOR. The combined x schools could negotiate a contract next summer with Pac12 schools playing under the agreement starting summer 2024 and Big12 schools joining summer 2025.

Plus with Fox & ESPN both being the main partners for both conferences today, if one or both are interested in a consolidated Big12/Pac12 TV Rights go forward, they will work to create a go forward conference.

 

[BCClone]

The Big12 TV contract ends 1 year after the Pac12 ends. So not necessary for Big12 schools to break GOR. The combined x schools could negotiate a contract next summer with Pac12 schools playing under the agreement starting summer 2024 and Big12 schools joining summer 2025.

Plus with Fox & ESPN both being the main partners for both conferences today, if one or both are interested in a consolidated Big12/Pac12 TV Rights go forward, they will work to create a go forward conference.

They still have the conference agreement.

 

[RustShack]

Isucy86 has been trolling the whole time. Throwing out any and every scenario that has Big12 schools leaving even though it’s the least likely scenario.

 

[Klubber]

Who is saying this?

Guys in the video on page 451. I think they're out of Utah, SLC station. They seemed pretty well sourced up. And thanks to whoever posted it. Good info.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

RE: Unequal Revenue sharing

Do you think we'll see some kind of performance based distribution from any conference?

Something like, if an equal distribution is $75 million per school with 16 teams, everyone instead gets 60 mil base, then rewarded for not being last.

e.g. 60, 62, 64, 66, 68, 70, 72, 74, 76, 78, 80, 82, 84, 86, 88.

With title 9 I'm sure it can't entirely be based on football, but I'm sure they can run some formula to show the percentage return per sport and figure it out. So your football rank is like 90% of the calculation or whatever it is. Depending on the scale, this seems like a great way to reward success.

I still think we'll see something like this to reward the success, but still give the lower finishing teams a payday. Not sure who will, but I could see the PAC trying something like this to appease Oregon and Washington. OSU and WSU still have a shot for a bigger payday, but aren't outright giving the other teams more money every year.

 

[IceCyIce]

Other than unequal revenue sharing. The other way for teams like Oregon & Washington to make $40M-$50M is to convince Big12 top money teams to consolidate.

If the Pac12 expects $30M /school each year and the Big12 expects $40M /school each Year, by combining the top x in each conference a consolidated Big12/Pac12 should make $45-$50M. Those kind of #'s would get the attention of Oregon, Washington, etc.

Just a matter if $5-$10M/year would influence the highest media value Big12 schools to come to the table and create a NEW conference.

Is Iowa State in the “top X” of each conference

 

[Boxerdaddy]

Who is saying this?

These guys

I found the first 5 minutes of this interesting. These two guys are sports radio hosts out in Salt Lake City. Per there sources Pac-12 is maxed out at 300 million for 5 years.

 

[CoKane]

Before Covid PAC paid out about 3MM from the network.

IDK how much money 3 millimeters is but it doesn't seem like a lot

 

[alarson]

IDK how much money 3 millimeters is but it doesn't seem like a lot

Its how you use it

 

[isucy86]

Isucy86 has been trolling the whole time. Throwing out any and every scenario that has Big12 schools leaving even though it’s the least likely scenario.

Not trolling. I just think the top Big12 schools can maximize TV Rights revenue by combining with the top Pac12 schools.

If maximizing TV Revenue isn't the goal of Big12 schools then we can stick with the twelve New Big12 schools.

I don't believe we can convince Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, etc. to join the Big12 without dropping the lowest media rights New Big12 schools. IMO this isn't a Big12 vs. Pac12 conversation. It's what group of schools will the TV Networks pay the most $.

Like I wrote, IMO the best 12-16 Big12/Pac12 schools probably gets $45-$50M. If making $40M is great for Big12 schools, then stand pat.

 

[isucy86]

Is Iowa State in the “top X” of each conference

I hope so!

But the TV folks would decide who they are willing to pay for. So if they want inventory based on a 16 team conference, then the top 16 media rights schools are the group they will pay the most to televise.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Here we go… tomorrow we may see how the Dominoes will be set.

 

[cykadelic2]

Not trolling. I just think the top Big12 schools can maximize TV Rights revenue by combining with the top Pac12 schools.

If maximizing TV Revenue isn't the goal of Big12 schools then we can stick with the twelve New Big12 schools.

I don't believe we can convince Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, etc. to join the Big12 without dropping the lowest media rights New Big12 schools. IMO this isn't a Big12 vs. Pac12 conversation. It's what group of schools will the TV Networks pay the most $.

Like I wrote, IMO the best 12-16 Big12/Pac12 schools probably gets $45-$50M. If making $40M is great for Big12 schools, then stand pat.

Agree and if it takes B12 dissolution and a rebranded conference (with a long term GOR) to accomplish this, you do it. And B12 dissolution would translate into ISU being part of the rebranded conference (takes 6 to dissolve at this point) with the eastern outliers like WV and the AAC newbies potentially being left out.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

People wonder why CU is attractive to the big XII even though their individual value isn’t that great, what it does is give us a second Mountain time zone school. It also really injures the PAC. We could probably hold value with CU by having at least one late game each week with CU and BYU.

Agreed, the trade off is that the more teams we add the less each team makes. Going to be interesting to see what the new 12 team B12 gets per team.

 

[NWICY]

Can't even remember when I watched a full PAC FB game. Watch a few Pac BB games because Oregon and USC are usually ok, but mainly to listen to Bill Walton.

 

[twojman]

Can't even remember when I watched a full PAC FB game. Watch a few Pac BB games because Oregon and USC are usually ok, but mainly to listen to Bill Walton.

I'll have a Pac-12 game late on Saturday while I game. This will finish out my gambling for the night including live betting. Depending on games though, I may watch CBS Sports instead. (MWC)

 

[BCClone]

I'll have a Pac-12 game late on Saturday while I game. This will finish out my gambling for the night including live betting. Depending on games though, I may watch CBS Sports instead. (MWC)

I turn one on and usually fall asleep during it. Wake up confused and don’t know the outcome, and don’t really care.

 

[Cloneon]

I think the Big 10 hopefuls just want the PAC to hold together long enough to get that Big 10 invite, but I don't know that anyone left in the PAC is a Big 10 target. I think they want to see who shakes loose from the ACC when their GOR is up. Anyone else they take from the PAC would be just to balance out their numbers.

Unequal revenue distribution is probably not a viable option at the end of the day. Let's say the PAC ends up at $30m/ and the Big XII is at $37m. OR and WA demand Big XII-type money, and Stanford things their entitled to that as well. That knocks the average of the rest of the conference down to $27m per year.

That would be a tough sell to the corner schools, as now they're giving up $10m per year they could get in the Big XII. Say they think moving for less than $5m a year probably isn't worth it, so they're all need to be at $32m.

Now there's $61m left for Cal, WA St and OR St to divvy up, or $20.3m each. Sure, that's a lot more than they could get in the MWC, but would they go for making a little more than half of what the top of the conference is getting and 2/3 of what most of the conference gets? Or would they tell everyone to get bent?

You're missing the dilution factor. Your premise is that the teams added to the B12 'sustain' the per team payout. When, in fact, their current resume (ie P12) speaks exactly the opposite (ie it'll lower the per team payout of the B12). Oh, I'm sure there's a 'combination' of teams from the P12 which can bring that mite, but the four corners, by themselves, is a gamble. Now, I'm only talking dollars and cents here. 'Solidifying' the health of the B12 is another matter and I'm sure one which would also need to be quantified.

 

[Pope]

You're missing the dilution factor. Your premise is that the teams added to the B12 'sustain' the per team payout. When, in fact, their current resume (ie P12) speaks exactly the opposite (ie it'll lower the per team payout of the B12). Oh, I'm sure there's a 'combination' of teams from the P12 which can bring that mite, but the four corners, by themselves, is a gamble. Now, I'm only talking dollars and cents here. 'Solidifying' the health of the B12 is another matter and I'm sure one which would also need to be quantified.

It's more than just adding teams who will sustain the 'per team payout'. It's also about adding teams who will enhance the conference's chances of surviving this dangerous realignment era.

Just one year ago the PAC had a golden opportunity to poach the Big 12 leftovers. However, their conceited presidents thought that adding Big 12 teams would do nothing to increase the value of their conference. Now their entire conference is on the verge of collapse.