Then we’re going to argue past each other, because this is entirely about realignment and the consolidation of power. The consolidation of so many big brands under one conference isn’t possible without the playoff. The latest moves are clearly in anticipation of the expanded playoff. ISU, and every non-SEC, non-Big 10 school are obviously worse off for not being in the new Power 2 that the playoff will facilitate.
While not nearly as significant as this massive revenue gap that is about to opened up between the Power 2 and everyone else, the media vacuum that is the playoff has made the bowls far less significant. Schools like Iowa State (and G5s) don’t have a realistic chance at making the playoff, let alone winning a game. However, schools like that could hope to make a BCS bowl, and they were important! Boise State beating OU in a modern Fiesta Bowl isn’t nearly as important today as it was in 2007. Modern Boise State has next to zero chance of even playing in a game that important. Perhaps an expanded playoff does actually fix that.
Obviously in the near term the playoff has been good for ISU financially, and in the future it may be what keeps ISU from taking a financial loss after conference realignment, but ISU would have been more secure to begin with without the playoff. Long-term, we’re heading for somewhat uncharted territory. The revenue gaps will harken back to the days before TV revenue sharing. ISU’s conference prestige will be the lowest it has ever been. If more games are moved to a streaming service, our brand visibility might be the worse it has been in the post-cable era. Long-term outlook certainly isn’t good as currently projected. And it IS the playoff allowing it to happen.
I understand. I am tepidly hopeful that what you're describing does not come to pass.
My opinion is more based on historic precedent of realignment and changes to postseason / player eligibility rules.
In the early 1990s the NFL made the draft available to underclassmen. We survived.
Realignment happened with the Texas schools joining the Big 8 and we benefited.
The BCS was created, and ESPN's presence began to grow. We survived.
Realignment again in late 00s and, again, the Big 12 survived, with Iowa State a part of it.
The CFP was established. We survived.
NIL was made available to players. We had our best recruiting class ever.
Through all of these years there have been powerhouse teams or power conferences on par or superior to Iowa State and the Big 12. Yet we continue to grow stronger as a football program, with the best stretch in school history and vast expansion to our athletic facilities.
The grass might be different on the other side of OU and UT leaving but that doesn't mean it will be brown.