The B10 # 3 team will get in along with the #4 SEC team. Oregon, Penn St. and Ohio St. are all in unless they lose three games here on out. Oregon will most likely be undefeated, Penn St. and Ohio St. play each other, it would be better for us to have Penn St. win that game giving Ohio St. a 2nd lost. Indiana is the wild card here, undefeated but still have to play Washington, Michigan and Ohio St. hard to see them being undefeated after going through that.
Root against the other teams at the top, right?
- Thread starter AppleCornCy
- Start date
There are two scenarios in which Iowa State makes the playoff IMO:
1.) Win the Big 12. Record does not matter. Automatic bid.
2.) Go 12-0 and lose in the Big 12 title game. At large bid.
Any other scenario we are on the outside looking in. If we are 11-0, lose to K-State week 12, and get left out of the Big 12 title game were are not going to the playoff. A Big 12 team that does not even play in their conference title game is NOT making the playoffs. I can all bit gaurantee you that.
The one scenario where I think we'd be on the edge of our seats is an 11-1 Iowa State team that loses an extremely close Big 12 title game to finish 11-2. Let the debate begin. Does a 4th or 5th place (9-3) Big 10 or SEC team get in over an 11-2 2nd place Big 12 team. I worry those 9-3 teams could be college football powerhouses Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M could be the possible teams we could be competing with. I think we all know how that would end...
1.) Win the Big 12. Record does not matter. Automatic bid.
2.) Go 12-0 and lose in the Big 12 title game. At large bid.
Any other scenario we are on the outside looking in. If we are 11-0, lose to K-State week 12, and get left out of the Big 12 title game were are not going to the playoff. A Big 12 team that does not even play in their conference title game is NOT making the playoffs. I can all bit gaurantee you that.
The one scenario where I think we'd be on the edge of our seats is an 11-1 Iowa State team that loses an extremely close Big 12 title game to finish 11-2. Let the debate begin. Does a 4th or 5th place (9-3) Big 10 or SEC team get in over an 11-2 2nd place Big 12 team. I worry those 9-3 teams could be college football powerhouses Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M could be the possible teams we could be competing with. I think we all know how that would end...
That’s not completely accurate. While unlikely, there is a small chance an undefeated Boise and undefeated Army/Navy would be ranked higher than a 1 loss Big 12 champ and a significantly higher chance a 2 loss Big 12 champ gets left out completely. There is no auto bid for the Big 12 (or any conference for that matter). It’s just the 5 highest ranked conference champs.
Meh, Vandy will likely come back down to earth here. Play Texas, @ Auburn, South Carolina, @ LSU and Tennessee
I'm thinking more about B12 title game, I don't think playing K-State back to back would be in our favor, especially if we win the season finale and BYU drops three, making K-State the second place team (BYU has the head to head, if they finish tied, they'd be in, right?) I think I want BYU to win close, like not go out and own UCF Saturday (showing our struggles Saturday were not a fluke.) I could see BYU dropping three on the road, but not likely (UH and KU in Provo; UCF, UU, and ASU away.)
As much as I want in the CFP, a B12 title would take care of that anyway. And get the talking heads to stop mentioning the last one being in 1912. It would probably switch to "ISU, 112 years between league titles..."
As much as I want in the CFP, a B12 title would take care of that anyway. And get the talking heads to stop mentioning the last one being in 1912. It would probably switch to "ISU, 112 years between league titles..."
Winning the conference is the only thing I care about. Knocking out 10 wins finally would be nice, too, but I'm not naive enough to think that'll change our perception at all. "Iowa State couldn't win anything until the last good teams left the Big XII."
This has some parallels to the conversation last year about the Big 12 gaming the NET in basketball.
Boise is currently 17th in current AP, Army and Navy are 23 and 24 in the same poll. No way they get ahead of all the B12 teams of ISU, BYU and KSU, unless they all lose multiple games between now and the end of the season.
I posted this in another thread, but it still applies here. I don't think they can leapfrog an undefeated or 1-loss Big XII champ, but...
"Army looks legitimately good. I don't think it's far-fetched at all that they finish undefeated and win the AAC. I'd be curious to see what happens to their ranking, if that happens. There's a very real world where Boise trucks UNLV and wins the MWC on the back of Jeanty, Army wins the American, and there's some attrition in the back half of conference play that leads to a 2-loss team winning the Big XII. In that scenario I think our conference winner's spot in the playoff as a whole could be in serious jeopardy.
Especially if Texas Tech or Cincy finish strong and end up winning it while looking extremely poor in the non-con."
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I know, it’s extremely unlikely. But it is possible. My point was that it is not a 100% guaranteed slot for a Big 12 champ.
Both of those teams still play ND and each other (maybe twice). Since only 5 champs are guaranteed, it only takes a KSU, BYU, ISU to lose a couple times for that to be a reality.
Obviously this only happens if Army or Navy and Boise remain undefeated all year until the CCG week and craziness happens in the Big 12
FYI Boise isn't undefeated. And while there are certainly scenarios (like a 3-loss Big 12 champ) where they get jumped by a non-P4 champ, its highly, highly unlikely. There is a much higher probability that the Big 12 could leap the ACC IMO.
This entire "the media is anti-Big 12" conspiracy theory is going a bit to far, in my opinion. This morning, I have seen at least 3 playoff projections from well respected media (Athletic/NYT, Brett McMurphy, Sporting News) all had 2 Big 12 teams included. If there are two 1-loss Big 12 teams or better, I think its very likely both get it - although it does matter what happens to other teams too.
I agree it's likely the B1G #3 team gets in. The point I was trying to make is that people tend to compare the B12 champ or runner up vs the B1G or SEC champ or runner up in these discussions. But that's really not the question - the #1 and #2 team in those leagues will get in every year. It's not even a question. In the SEC, almost every year there will be 3 teams good enough to get in. The B12 Champ will be in, barring a really crazy scenario. So what we're talking about is B12 #2 vs B1G #3/4 and SEC #4.
My other frustration with this is that everyone assumes all the top B12 teams will have 2-3 losses going into the championship game due to upsets, while top teams from other leagues won't be upset. That's not true, and we're seeing it with Alabama this year. They've already got 2 upset losses. I think we'll likely see a third upset loss. At that point, you're not going to see a 9-3 Alabama get in. We shouldn't assume that the worst will happen in the B12 while the best will happen in the SEC, B1G, and other leagues. Even the ACC - I would not be surprised at all to see either Clemson or Miami lose a game down the stretch.
We should assume that all leagues will have upsets. Then (IMO) you get down to picking who are the best 12 teams both from a record perspective and TV draw. They'll prioritize based on record first, but then when it comes to teams that are equal they will favor brands and TV dollars. If you look at the history of the selection committee, this is how they've done it. When teams are clearly better from a record perspective, they will put them in - for example undefeated G5 Cincinnati. But, when they have an argument to say the teams are equal they will favor the SEC/B1G - for example OSU over TCU and Alabama over FSU. To me - that means you need to be 1 win better than an SEC/B1G team to get in from the B12.
To the original point of this thread - I think we should be cheering for the best B12 teams to win and lose only to other top B12 teams. Long term, it's possible that a new "blue blood" can arise in the B12. Look at Clemson - they developed into a football powerhouse out of the ACC at a time when it was clearly the 4th place football conference. If one or two B12 teams can consistently win 10+ games, get in the playoffs, and win a playoff game consistently (at least half the time) then a new B12 blue blood can be born and gain respect. But it takes winning, both over the B12 and over the SEC & B1G.
As many have said.....just keep winning ours.
I just don't love the idea of K-State being either in the way of a title game for us or having to maybe play them twice....as beating them two weeks in a row could be tough...so I guess i'd take a loss to them in Ames to beat them then in Dallas.
As we saw this weekend, we need to get healthy and dial in. We can't expect to run the table if we spot teams first half leads, etc.
I just don't love the idea of K-State being either in the way of a title game for us or having to maybe play them twice....as beating them two weeks in a row could be tough...so I guess i'd take a loss to them in Ames to beat them then in Dallas.
As we saw this weekend, we need to get healthy and dial in. We can't expect to run the table if we spot teams first half leads, etc.
We won't have to play KSU twice, BYU is going to undefeated and get one spot in the championship game, if ISU and KSU keep winning, then our game with KSU will determine the other team in the playoff and the loser will be out of the playoff field.
Hell BYU jumped up to #7 in the athletic poll, and they may be right, BYU has defeated both one loss KSU and one loss SMU, both victories are better than ours over EIU.
We just have to keep winning, taking it one game at a time, but that matchup with KSU is looming to be huge for both teams.
Yeah, that is true (Assuming BYU wins out).
That game vs KSU is huge....and I love and hate that all at once!
We need KSuck to lose one more time, then... we're golden.
BYU would have to loss twice for them not to make the playoff. They have the tiebreaker over KSU after already beating them. So unless they lose 2 more games, they are in the championship game.
Yes, that was a conference game. You may be thinking of KState and Arizona. That was a Non-Con.