I am looking forward to this off season and hearing who steps in.
Lots of production to replace... I don't think about it as much position by position but overall production. I think that where the production comes from will change.
For example, in Purdy's first year he had Hakeem Butler. I don't think we ever really replace Butler at WR but we have utilized TE's more since he left. Our offense has changed. Purdy's yds per pass declined (10.2 in 2018, between 7.5-8.4 the rest of his time at ISU) with the production coming from the TE position and talented but
less explosive receivers
(Hutchinson may be a better player in the NFL, but in College Butler was a mismatch that Purdy exploited for huge plays; offense has not had the same number of big plays in the passing game since he left).
On offense I would expect more volatility in year 1 with the guys we lose at TE, QB and RB. We may be more explosive with Dekkers, Scates (he has flashed big play potential but inconsistent). Overall, I am optimistic that the total offensive production may be similar but will need to come from more big plays in the passing game - and there will likely be more turnovers. In the running game, much of Hall's production this year came on his explosive runs. It was good to see Brock's 40 yd TD vs. TCU. But, we need to keep in mind 1) TCU was terrible against the run, 2) they were missing a significant number of players. I am hopeful Brock and Co. are able to provide solid production but it will come down to the o-line... If the OL is great, the Offense will be fine. If not, there are some play makers who will make some plays, but I would expect it to be much more boom or bust next year. I do not think the O-Line will be great (but hope I am wrong).
On Defense, we
return about 35% of our tackles so I will use this to judge number of sacks, int, fumbles, passes defended we have coming back
(I don't have snap counts, so if someone subscribes to PFF or has a source for that, it would be great to have returning snap counts on def). I assume Isheem Young and all seniors are gone.
Sacks: 4.5/32 = 14%
Interceptions: 4/10 = 40%
Pass Defended: 7/27 = 26%
Forced Fumbles: 2/11 = 18%
Fumbles Recovered: 1/4 = 25%
Turnovers: 5/14 = 36%
So, overall, we return a higher percent of our turnovers and INT than we do our tackles which is good... However, all other impact plays are down (sacks, PD, Fumbles).
My
main concern is pass rush with McDonald / Uwazurike gone. They account for 20 of the 32 sacks (I don't have pressure numbers but that would be my preferred stat since it is much more indicative of go forward pass rush production).
Returning "Play Makers" (this is based only on what they produced this year not who could set up next year):
Craig McDonald: 2 INTs (tied for 1st), 35 Tackles (9th on team)
Kym Mani-King: 1 INT, 2 Pass Def, 1 Fum Rec, 29 Tackles (12th on team)
Gerry Vaughn: 1.5 Sacks, 38 Tackles (6th on team)
Blake Peterson(?): 2 Sacks (!), 1 Pass Def, 5 Tackles
I added Blake Peterson since he leads all returning defensive players in sacks (2) even though he had very limited playing time (only 5 tackles). Like I said, QB pressures would be a key stat to add here to see who some of the other guys getting to the QB are...
Net, we will have a lot of def production to replace. But where it comes from isn't clear. Maybe a scheme will need to change, maybe we will need to blitz more to get pressure... who knows. But I do think we have some good pieces in the secondary and some young potential at LB, DL that could emerge. I don't think it will be as good as what we have with McDonald/Uwazurike.
Overall, I would expect an up and down year but still think we make a bowl. Best case, there are a lot of young, talented guys that the staff did not trust that are sitting behind starters that have more experience. Think of Hall in 2019, 18 total carries through 5 games (3.6 carries/gm) including only 1 in the first two B12 games; he avg 21 carries per game the rest of the year. Not questioning the "process", but it is clear that they play experience over talent. Fingers crossed we have 5 NFL o-linemen that didn't get to play this year
