Reliance on JuCo = Lazy Recruiting

[im4cyclones]

Is our attrition any worse than normal for d1 football teams, I know people gripe a lot about players leaving.

Numbers-wise, it may not be. But like any low-major program, we need player development over 3-4 years to compete. Programs of our stature lack the ability to recruit sufficient high-level to fill a roster. The constant turnover means holes in the roster filled with raw talent.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

I don't think targeting juco's is a lazy recruiting strategy. Rhoads has nothing to sell right now short of the fan base and facilities. The fate of the program will be decided by the first 3 or 4 games. Unless there is some amazing change in player development mid year, there is no room for losing in September in 2015.

 

[berther48]

Sitting on 4 recruits. Half are sub-par JuCos as usual. Sitting at 116th best 2016 class in the nation (65 FBS teams). No apparent urgency. No change in recruiting strategy. It's August! Guess it's time to wait for the JuCo season to end and see which apples don't appear to be rotten in the basket again? Lazy!

Just curious, your a scout for a D1 football program?
You have actually recruited high school players for ISU?
So your expertise comes from where?
What have you done to give you the right to judge the efforts of the coaching staff?

Trash talk is just that trash.
A better handle for you would be LesTrashCY.

 

[CycloneErik]

Just curious, your a scout for a D1 football program?
You have actually recruited high school players for ISU?
So your expertise comes from where?
What have you done to give you the right to judge the efforts of the coaching staff?

Trash talk is just that trash.
A better handle for you would be LesTrashCY.

Hardly anyone here has scouted for a DI team. Why in the world would that matter for a message board poster?

 

[RustShack]

It's funny how many people think all high ranked recruits are good and all low ranked recruits are bad. Those are the true idiots who don't know what the are talking about. That is proven wrong every single year. It's actually never once been completely accurate, ever.

 

[nickcyv]

Just curious, your a scout for a D1 football program?
You have actually recruited high school players for ISU?
So your expertise comes from where?
What have you done to give you the right to judge the efforts of the coaching staff?

Trash talk is just that trash.
A better handle for you would be LesTrashCY.

I have no idea how to play the piano, never learned, so naturally I am horrible at it. Regardless of my lack of talent or knowledge, I still can appreciate a good pianist same as I can identify a hack as myself. You don't have to be a professional to see true talent.

Now for the sake of argument, let's see who true professionals in college football scouting are. The two natural choices are professionals who scout for a living, say rivals, 247, and scout and college football coaching staffs. The scouting services all agree our recruiting is the worst in the P5 conferences. Moving to college football staffs, very few if any are offering scholarships to our commits.

In saying that, recruiting jucos is not lazy and should be a cornerstone of recruiting at ISU.

 

[berther48]

It's funny how many people think all high ranked recruits are good and all low ranked recruits are bad. Those are the true idiots who don't know what the are talking about. That is proven wrong every single year. It's actually never once been completely accurate, ever.

Juco players are not inferior players, some are diamonds in the rough, not all 5 star high school players make the pros.
Four JC transfers eventually became No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft:
Cam Newton, Keyshawn Johnson, O.J. Simpson and Ron Yary.

Numerous other former junior college stars have made their NFL mark, including Larry Allen, Cortez Kennedy, **** "Night Train" Lane, Warren Moon, Aaron Rodgers and Roger Staubach.

And while there were no former JC players taken in the first round of the 2014 draft, there were five former juco stars selected in the first round in 2013: Chicago Bears G Kyle Long, Carolina Panthers DT Star Lotulelei, Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson, New York Jets DT Sheldon Richardson and Denver Broncos DT Sylvester Williams.

There probably will be three former junior college stars selected in the first round this year, including Nebraska DE Randy Gregory and West Virginia WR Kevin White, who are seen as potential top-10 picks. The other likely first-rounder is Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong.

44 Starters in the Super Bowl:
5 Star recruits: 0, 4 Star Recruits: 4, 3 Star and Below: 40

Go Cyclones!

 

[surly]

It's worked okay for Bill Snyder

K-State sitting on 11 high school 2016 verbals to this point in time; no community college committments.

22 high school recruits in 26 man 2015 class.

https://rivals.yahoo.com/kansasstate/football/recruiting/commitments/2015

 

[D UP Clones]

K-State sitting on 11 high school 2016 verbals to this point in time; no community college committments.

22 high school recruits in 26 man 2015 class.

https://rivals.yahoo.com/kansasstate/football/recruiting/commitments/2015

I hope Kstate keeps recruiting high school kids. We might start beating them then.

 

[RustShack]

Juco players are not inferior players, some are diamonds in the rough, not all 5 star high school players make the pros.
Four JC transfers eventually became No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft:
Cam Newton, Keyshawn Johnson, O.J. Simpson and Ron Yary.

Numerous other former junior college stars have made their NFL mark, including Larry Allen, Cortez Kennedy, **** "Night Train" Lane, Warren Moon, Aaron Rodgers and Roger Staubach.

And while there were no former JC players taken in the first round of the 2014 draft, there were five former juco stars selected in the first round in 2013: Chicago Bears G Kyle Long, Carolina Panthers DT Star Lotulelei, Minnesota Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson, New York Jets DT Sheldon Richardson and Denver Broncos DT Sylvester Williams.

There probably will be three former junior college stars selected in the first round this year, including Nebraska DE Randy Gregory and West Virginia WR Kevin White, who are seen as potential top-10 picks. The other likely first-rounder is Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong.

44 Starters in the Super Bowl:
5 Star recruits: 0, 4 Star Recruits: 4, 3 Star and Below: 40

Go Cyclones!

Exactly. Some of Iowa States best players have been unranked, 2 stars, or jucos... While our 4 star players tend to be nothing.

Recruit rankings for the most part don't matter, especially outside the top 100 players.

"Diamonds in the rough" player development, team players, and coaching is what Iowa State needs. The last few years we've had players with the mentality that they are above the program and don't have to put in the work or be team players. Those players are gone and we are back to the "All In" mentality CPR started with.

 

[nickcyv]

Exactly. Some of Iowa States best players have been unranked, 2 stars, or jucos... While our 4 star players tend to be nothing.

Recruit rankings for the most part don't matter, especially outside the top 100 players.

"Diamonds in the rough" player development, team players, and coaching is what Iowa State needs. The last few years we've had players with the mentality that they are above the program and don't have to put in the work or be team players. Those players are gone and we are back to the "All In" mentality CPR started with.

To to be fair, of course ISUs best players are lowered ranked because 99.5% are low 3 stars and below.

Its been proven over and over again. Percentage wise, you've got the best shot at the NFL if you are a 5 star. Second highest percentage is 4 star. Yes there are huge numbers of 3 stars in the NFL, that's because there are thousands of 3 stars each year and around 25O or so 4 stars and around 25 5 stars. It is simply willful ignorance if you think "recruit rankings" don't matter.

Save the Jake Knott line. I can give you several thousand Jake Knotts who washed our before their freshman year.

 

[RustShack]

To to be fair, of course ISUs best players are lowered ranked because 99.5% are low 3 stars and below.

Its been proven over and over again. Percentage wise, you've got the best shot at the NFL if you are a 5 star. Second highest percentage is 4 star. Yes there are huge numbers of 3 stars in the NFL, that's because there are thousands of 3 stars each year and around 25O or so 4 stars and around 25 5 stars. It is simply willful ignorance if you think "recruit rankings" don't matter.

Save the Jake Knott line. I can give you several thousand Jake Knotts who washed our before their freshman year.

No, outside the top 100 players give or take it's a crap shoot. Obviously it's easy to tell who the few super talented guys are.

 

[RealisticCy]

Numbers-wise, it may not be. But like any low-major program, we need player development over 3-4 years to compete. Programs of our stature lack the ability to recruit sufficient high-level to fill a roster. The constant turnover means holes in the roster filled with raw talent.

This. Programs like ISU need to recruit the best talent they can get to fit their system and rankings don't really matter. I would argue that our recruiting, especially on defense, has produced many players who shouldn't be playing in the Big 12. But the real problem is player development; a high school O-linemen should make a ton of progress in 5 years, and that just is not happening. Players should be getting better through experience and the strength and conditioning program. JUCO or not, the program is not making the most the players we get to come to Ames. That is the difference between the programs at ISU and KSU.

 

[Rhoadhoused]

No, outside the top 100 players give or take it's a crap shoot. Obviously it's easy to tell who the few super talented guys are.

This really isn't true.

On average, 5 star players are more likely to get play better in college and get drafted earlier than 4 3 and 2 stars.

4 stars are more likely than 3 and 2.

3 stars are more likely than 2.


It's a sample size issue. There are only 25 five star players in the entire United States.

There are only 250 or so 4 star players in the entire United States.

There are 500 or so 3 star players in the entire United States.

That leaves about 2500 players in Division 1 football that are either 2 star players or unranked. (Using 25 scholarships for every FBS team)



That doesn't mean lower ranked guys aren't important and can't be successful, or that higher ranked guys are slam dunks, but there is no reality where 2 star recruits are an equal hit rate to 4 star recruits. To say otherwise is a delusional fabrication.

 

[CycloneErik]

This really isn't true.

On average, 5 star players are more likely to get play better in college and get drafted earlier than 4 3 and 2 stars.

4 stars are more likely than 3 and 2.

3 stars are more likely than 2.


It's a sample size issue. There are only 25 five star players in the entire United States.

There are only 250 or so 4 star players in the entire United States.

There are 500 or so 3 star players in the entire United States.

That leaves about 2500 players in Division 1 football that are either 2 star players or unranked. (Using 25 scholarships for every FBS team)



That doesn't mean lower ranked guys aren't important and can't be successful, or that higher ranked guys are slam dunks, but there is no reality where 2 star recruits are an equal hit rate to 4 star recruits. To say otherwise is a delusional fabrication.

I get that our fans have a vested interest in believing that this isn't so, since we rarely succeed in recruiting the really talented guys, but this info should be pretty obvious to everyone.

Nice post. Prepare for the backlash.

 

[RustShack]

This really isn't true.

On average, 5 star players are more likely to get play better in college and get drafted earlier than 4 3 and 2 stars.

4 stars are more likely than 3 and 2.

3 stars are more likely than 2.


It's a sample size issue. There are only 25 five star players in the entire United States.

There are only 250 or so 4 star players in the entire United States.

There are 500 or so 3 star players in the entire United States.

That leaves about 2500 players in Division 1 football that are either 2 star players or unranked. (Using 25 scholarships for every FBS team)



That doesn't mean lower ranked guys aren't important and can't be successful, or that higher ranked guys are slam dunks, but there is no reality where 2 star recruits are an equal hit rate to 4 star recruits. To say otherwise is a delusional fabrication.

And most of those 5 and 4 star players would fall under the top 100 or so, as I said.

 

[RustShack]

Half of this years 1st round in the NFL draft weren't 5 or 4 stars. With the mentality around here all of them should have been.

 

[Rhoadhoused]

I get that our fans have a vested interest in believing that this isn't so, since we rarely succeed in recruiting the really talented guys, but this info should be pretty obvious to everyone.

Nice post. Prepare for the backlash.

This is probably my biggest sports pet peeve.

OH YEAH?!?! JJ WATT WAS A 2 STAR! CASE CLOSED!

 

[Rhoadhoused]

Half of this years 1st round in the NFL draft weren't 5 or 4 stars. With the mentality around here all of them should have been.

Don't be willfully stupid, man.

Let's say there are 275 4 and 5 star players per class, and there are also 275 4/5 star players becoming draft eligible every year. Also, let's assume 25 people graduate per school and are eligible for the draft. This is not reality, but it's close enough for the example.

275 players would account for 9.2% of the draft class.

So, in a 32 person first round, you would expect 2.93 (let's round to 3) 4 or 5 star players selected.

You said that half of the 1st round was 4/5 star players? Well, that means that there are about 5 times more 4/5 star players selected than you would expect if it didn't matter.

As it stands, if we are saying 16 4/5 star players were drafted in the first, that means 5.8% of them were drafted in the first round.

This is compared to .53% of the 2 and 3 stars being drafted.

A little simple math will tell you that makes a a 4/5 star player 10.94 times more likely to be drafted in the first round than a 2/3 star player.


Soooooooooooooooooo..................

 

[RustShack]

Do you really think there is an accurate way to rank all 500 3 stars? No. It's a crap shoot.