Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[ClubCy]

That’s the point, they won’t risk the lower ratings of having a big game on a streamer, they want the larger numbers that the current main networks give them. Even when playing cupcake games those teams still draw good numbers though, on the streamers that just doesn’t happen yet

Exactly this. Ohio State/Michigan vs a g5 team will still get ~3 million viewers if on Fox/NBC/CBS

 

[Cloneon]

The reason the Amazons, Apples and Googles haven't jumped in is two fold:

1) ESPN and Fox, via their realignment manipulation, have hoarded all of the top brands into the 3 conferences they 100% own (B10, ACC & SEC) with the exception of Notre Dame.
2) Without access to regular season inventory of those top brands, there is little incentive for Amazon, Google, etc. to enter the CFB space including the CFP (which is illogically hoarded by only ESPN)

The obvious fix is media rights pooling and rational realignment into seven 10-team conferences (with top brands more spread out) and have the rights to those 7 conferences and annual shared CFP rights bid out NFL style. The rights could be bundled as follows:

1) SEC/ACC/Partial CFP/Two G5 conferences/Partial G5 Playoff => ESPN/ABC/ACCN/SECN has right to match other bids
2) B10/PAC/Partial CFP/G5 Conference/Partial G5 Playoff => Fox/BTN/FS1/FS2 has right to match other bids
3) SWC/"Big East"/Partial CFP/One G5 Conference/Partial G5 Playoff
4) Notre Dame/B12/Partial CFP/One G5 Conference/Partial G5 Playoff => NBC/USA/Peacock has right to match other bids

Package #3 would likely draw and could be shared amongst these 3: CBS/Paramount, Amazon and/or TNT.

Total media rights revenues would at least double and the SEC/B10 would continue their revenue advantage with an element of unequal revenue sharing based on regular season and CFP TV ratings (e.g. 25% of the total revenue pool shared unequally).

I respect your reply. But, considering the cash reserves that both Apple and Amazon have not to mention their massive valuation, they could easily have purchased Disney and/or Fox if they wanted. So, in some aspect I still disagree. There's a reason we, outside the real numbers, do not see. I, personally, think they think that ESPN and Fox over extended themselves and are waiting until the next negotiations to see if the chaos is cured.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I respect your reply. But, considering the cash reserves that both Apple and Amazon have not to mention their massive valuation, they could easily have purchased Disney and/or Fox if they wanted. So, in some aspect I still disagree. There's a reason we, outside the real numbers, do not see. I, personally, think they think that ESPN and Fox over extended themselves and are waiting until the next negotiations to see if the chaos is cured.

The answer is that the conferences don’t want to go to streaming yet. The Pac12 had an offer from Apple for all streaming, they turned it down and dissolved the conference before the AD’s wanted to go that route

 

[cykadelic2]

The answer is that the conferences don’t want to go to streaming yet. The Pac12 had an offer from Apple for all streaming, they turned it down and dissolved the conference before the AD’s wanted to go that route

The streaming entities didn't make high enough offers to make a significant switch to streaming worthwhile (e.g. Amazon sublicense bid to B10/Fox; Apple bid to PAC). That Apple bid was not high enough to keep the PAC together regardless of any aversion to streaming at that time.

Without access to CFP rights for Amazon and Apple, that was a bigger reason for those bids not being higher so the aversion to streaming is being overstated on your end. Media rights pooling with access to CFP rights for all bidders fixes that.

 

[Clonehomer]

The answer is that the conferences don’t want to go to streaming yet. The Pac12 had an offer from Apple for all streaming, they turned it down and dissolved the conference before the AD’s wanted to go that route

Well that’s a bit of revisionist history. They turned it down because they were told they could get more elsewhere. They dissolved because the Big10 took their biggest property. If USC and UCLA hadn’t been negotiating their departure during the same time they were negotiating the TV deals, I’d imagine there was a good chance the PAC would have ended up taking that offer. But once those two announced their departure, it was over.

 

[Cloneon]

The answer is that the conferences don’t want to go to streaming yet. The Pac12 had an offer from Apple for all streaming, they turned it down and dissolved the conference before the AD’s wanted to go that route

I wasn't implying streaming. But, streaming can do to OTA what the internet did to telecom. It has the ability to regionalize on a case-by-case basis and use OTA to complete it. The days of satellites beaming regions in space are over, IMO. With the losses piling up at the major OTAs, I see an opportunity for outright buying ala ESPN/ABC, or massive subcontracting regional telecasts.

I'd be surprised if most Iowa State fans don't have the same viewing habits as me. Iowa State first then B12 impacting Iowa State. After that a major drop off. My point is, I believe more eyeballs would prefer to watch their local vs an out of conference major. And, even then with all the options for entertainment these days, I'll bet most other viewers are 'at the beach' so to speak.

The only other type of audiences I really can't put numbers to are absolute couch potatoes for CFB and gamblers. Those aren't in my wheelhouse, but I'd be curious what those numbers are.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Well that’s a bit of revisionist history. They turned it down because they were told they could get more elsewhere. They dissolved because the Big10 took their biggest property. If USC and UCLA hadn’t been negotiating their departure during the same time they were negotiating the TV deals, I’d imagine there was a good chance the PAC would have ended up taking that offer. But once those two announced their departure, it was over.

This was after the LA schools left.

The AD’s didn’t want a streaming only service and the amount wasn’t high enough to convince them to go off over the air. No conference wanted to move to streaming as a primary for fear of the audience not following as has been show correct so far

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I wasn't implying streaming. But, streaming can do to OTA what the internet did to telecom. It has the ability to regionalize on a case-by-case basis and use OTA to complete it. The days of satellites beaming regions in space are over, IMO. With the losses piling up at the major OTAs, I see an opportunity for outright buying ala ESPN/ABC, or massive subcontracting regional telecasts.

I'd be surprised if most Iowa State fans don't have the same viewing habits as me. Iowa State first then B12 impacting Iowa State. After that a major drop off. My point is, I believe more eyeballs would prefer to watch their local vs an out of conference major. And, even then with all the options for entertainment these days, I'll bet most other viewers are 'at the beach' so to speak.

The only other type of audiences I really can't put numbers to are absolute couch potatoes for CFB and gamblers. Those aren't in my wheelhouse, but I'd be curious what those numbers are.

Oh I totally agree that streaming will one day take over. Might even be in the 2030’s with the new media deals. It’s just that during the last media deals the conferences didn’t want to be the first and I don’t think their was some absurd offer that was significantly higher