Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

CyCrazy

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Dec 17, 2008
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A second thought:
I think that the only way two super conferences of 20 each take over will be if certain gambling laws are changed, and Las Vegas takes over as sponsor. Pay all of the players NIL equally (Gambling companies stand to make a lot of money out of this and can support the NIL). Games and tournaments will be restricted to among the 40 teams. Still show the University connections to keep the original fans. Vegas would create their own multi-channel broadcast network and provide on-line gambling for financing.

The left out teams can stay with NCAA and operate as they have been. The only thing that will happen is that the name teams will have departed to the Vegas Leagues.

Think it can't happen? Money talks and walks. "Watch this space."

You are not a good troll. And yes I know this isnt your first username.
 
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cyIclSoneU

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Calling Louisville and Tech good brands is a bit of a stretch. Personally I think the Big12 has an edge with the parity in the conference. Everyone knows the ACC is just Clemson.

Good is relative but I think Virginia Tech, NC State, Pitt, and Louisville likely have as much television value as anybody in the Big 12, maybe BYU excluded.

My point is mostly that ACC expansion here makes ACC survival more likely, thus lessening the likelihood of the “Big 12 as the 3rd of 3 conferences” scenario and raising the likelihood, even if it’s still pretty small, that the Big 12 gets poached by the ACC and ends up in 4th place after the next big wave.
 
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Clonehomer

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Yeah no they don’t, they care about their alma mater at best, if they did they wouldn’t be cutting funding to higher learning across all their states.

I’m going to point you to the hearings on the BCS system. This is one of the biggest reasons that the G5 has a seat at the table for NY6 games.


They will care when they see their state having to bail out the schools’ athletic programs. For example, look at OSU and Cal’s football stadium situation. There’s a high likelihood that taxpayers in those states are going to be on the hook for those stadium upgrade loans.
 
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Cloniac2

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The key re what happens to the CFP is what solution can garner over 50% of the votes on the board that governs it. The board currently, and at least through this season, has 5 P5 conferences, ND, and 5 G5 conferences. While I think the P5 and ND might have weighted votes, the BIG and SEC don’t have a majority and need to make alliance with the other P5 or the G5 conferences.

My guess at this point that the ACC, Big12, and the PAC should insist on at least 4 conference champions (preferably 5 to get G5 and PAC votes) with the 4 highest getting a first round bye. This model ensures that the ACC and Big12 champ get a bye (increasing the chances of advancing) and protects OSU and WSU for the Pac by ensuring at least one nonP4 champ getting in. Going without AQ’s (BIG and SEC preference - maybe even ND) makes it more likely that the 4 “byes” go to the power brands in the BIG and SEC or ND, locking out the ACC and Big12 from getting a bye.

IMO, the 3 non P2 conferences and the G5’s have the votes to determine the solution if they stay together.
 

Clonehomer

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The key re what happens to the CFP is what solution can garner over 50% of the votes on the board that governs it. The board currently, and at least through this season, has 5 P5 conferences, ND, and 5 G5 conferences. While I think the P5 and ND might have weighted votes, the BIG and SEC don’t have a majority and need to make alliance with the other P5 or the G5 conferences.

My guess at this point that the ACC, Big12, and the PAC should insist on at least 4 conference champions (preferably 5 to get G5 and PAC votes) with the 4 highest getting a first round bye. This model ensures that the ACC and Big12 champ get a bye (increasing the chances of advancing) and protects OSU and WSU for the Pac by ensuring at least one nonP4 champ getting in. Going without AQ’s (BIG and SEC preference - maybe even ND) makes it more likely that the 4 “byes” go to the power brands in the BIG and SEC or ND, locking out the ACC and Big12 from getting a bye.

IMO, the 3 non P2 conferences and the G5’s have the votes to determine the solution if they stay together.

I don’t see any less than 5 conference champions getting auto-bids. Maybe they’ll have a deal where they need to be in the top 20 or something. But unless the P2 want to go nuclear and split off, they’re going to have to compromise.
 
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HFCS

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A few thoughts:
I find it funny that so many seem to trust the poll voters to pick the top 12 or so teams for the playoffs. Where are these voters from? Probably SEC and B1G cities, or are they from Alaska or are they old fat guys drinking beer watching ESPN. The only true way to pick the teams for the playoff is by wins and losses. If this means that a 11- 1 Air Force team makes the cut and an 8 - 4 SEC team doesn't. so be it.

The BCS formula was 1/3 computer average, 1/3 coaches poll, and 1/3 Harris poll of basically football insiders.

The new small biased committee is 13 people where about 5 of them are typically gigantic Big Ten homers and they change their criteria every week, sometimes to the exact opposite of what it was prior. Basically the only criteria is what helps Ohio State this week.

Seems like the BCS formula is drastically better, the biggest problem was it was a 2 team playoff. Give me 12 teams picked straight off the old BCS formula any day.
 

isucy86

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Good is relative but I think Virginia Tech, NC State, Pitt, and Louisville likely have as much television value as anybody in the Big 12, maybe BYU excluded.

My point is mostly that ACC expansion here makes ACC survival more likely, thus lessening the likelihood of the “Big 12 as the 3rd of 3 conferences” scenario and raising the likelihood, even if it’s still pretty small, that the Big 12 gets poached by the ACC and ends up in 4th place after the next big wave.
The big question is whether adding Stanford, Cal and SMU solidifies the ACC long term if schools like Clemson, FSU, UNC, Miami, Notre Dame, etc. jump to Big10 or SEC at some point. ACC viability probably depends on how many ACC schools the Big10 or SEC take. If it's 6 or more, tough to see the ACC surviving unless they can poach eastern schools from the Big12 and/or USF, Tulane, etc. build their media value over the next decade.

It's tough to see how adding Stanford, Cal & SMU at 7 years of vastly reduced media payouts can lead to long term stability. ACC must be figuring the CFP playoff money is going to be a game changer to create an uneven revenue sharing model that is palettable amongst conference members.

But maybe long term the ACC views their position as a Ivy-lite League. Focus on basketball and de-emphasize football and the investment needed to compete in the CFP era.

Duke
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Boston College
Stanford
Cal
SMU
Vanderbilt
Northwestern
Rice
Tulane
Navy
Army
 

AuH2O

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Two of those teams are now P4, one is totally irrelevant, and Tulane beat USC with some of its top players sitting out. My point is in a playoff with no one sitting out and everyone trying those G5 schools aren’t going to do anything but lose. I’m fine with G5 getting in if they put together a perfect season and beat multiple P4 teams but there need to be some major qualifiers
And barring OSU finishing second, no second place team in a league other than the SEC is going to be competitive either.
 
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AuH2O

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The BCS formula was 1/3 computer average, 1/3 coaches poll, and 1/3 Harris poll of basically football insiders.

The new small biased committee is 13 people where about 5 of them are typically gigantic Big Ten homers and they change their criteria every week, sometimes to the exact opposite of what it was prior. Basically the only criteria is what helps Ohio State this week.

Seems like the BCS formula is drastically better, the biggest problem was it was a 2 team playoff. Give me 12 teams picked straight off the old BCS formula any day.
BCS was way better. The complaints about the BCS were pretty much all because it couldn’t fit 3 teams in a 2 team playoff.
 

isucy86

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I’m going to point you to the hearings on the BCS system. This is one of the biggest reasons that the G5 has a seat at the table for NY6 games.


They will care when they see their state having to bail out the schools’ athletic programs. For example, look at OSU and Cal’s football stadium situation. There’s a high likelihood that taxpayers in those states are going to be on the hook for those stadium upgrade loans.

Politicians might stick their noses in, hold some hearings, but I doubt they would have an impact.

If Power Conferences reduce playoff access or financial share for G5 Conferences, there is nothing stopping the G conferences from creating their own playoff like the FCS division. Especially if we see a change to role/popularity of Bowls with a 12 team playoff.

Would ESPN, FOX, etc. see value of complimenting their broadcasting the 12 team CFP with an 8 team G5 Playoff?
 

HouClone

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With Stanford and Cal in the ACC likely, they are going to compete with the Big 12 for ESPN After Dark even though they are not good. It'll be a Clemson, Florida State, or Notre Dame as the opponent. Fox After Dark will be Big 10 and Big 12 I am assuming. I know the Big 10 said they were not going to play late games but adding Oregon and Washington may change this.
 
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isucy86

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With Stanford and Cal in the ACC likely, they are going to compete with the Big 12 for ESPN After Dark even though they are not good. It'll be a Clemson, Florida State, or Notre Dame as the opponent. Fox After Dark will be Big 10 and Big 12 I am assuming. I know the Big 10 said they were not going to play late games but adding Oregon and Washington may change this.
Not sure Clemson, ND or FSU are going to be lining up to play games that start at 10:30p ET. Seems like Saturday After Dark is a game all 16 other ACC teams share the pain.
 

FriendlySpartan

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And barring OSU finishing second, no second place team in a league other than the SEC is going to be competitive either.
Between USC/Mich/OSU the second place could be some years. I mean until the SEC loses a couple years in a row I’m always giving them the benefit of the doubt
 

AuH2O

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Between USC/Mich/OSU the second place could be some years. I mean until the SEC loses a couple years in a row I’m always giving them the benefit of the doubt
Maybe, but I think that only happens if OSU slips up in the regular season. They are the only one I think that can compete with an SEC champ. They have been getting the talent. Michigan and USC aren’t there.
 

cyclones500

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I'm a bit behind the curve today and maybe this was discussed in recent pages ... I understand SMU would do a lot for a P5 landing spot, but how does it absorb 7-ish years with no TV revenue? (It's possible I'm not getting the full picture of what's being proposed, but wondering about it in basic sense).
 
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SEIOWA CLONE

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A few thoughts:
I find it funny that so many seem to trust the poll voters to pick the top 12 or so teams for the playoffs. Where are these voters from? Probably SEC and B1G cities, or are they from Alaska or are they old fat guys drinking beer watching ESPN. The only true way to pick the teams for the playoff is by wins and losses. If this means that a 11- 1 Air Force team makes the cut and an 8 - 4 SEC team doesn't. so be it.
Who did that 11-1 Air Force team play and beat to get to those 11 wins, and who did the SEC team 4 loses come from? Say you are Alburn and lost to Alabama, LSU, Georgia and aTm but won the rest of your games, that is a better season than a team that beat UNLV, Boise St, Colorado St. and Army to get to the 11 wins.
 
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